NC State 31-28 Louisville (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Louisville · NC State

Louisville2-328

NC State3-231Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, N.C. · Crowd 56,919

NC State beat Louisville 31-28.

We had NC State favored. It won.

Next: Louisville beat Florida State 44-20, Fri Oct 9

Next: NC State lost to Wake Forest 38-14, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

5 fumbles today, lost 3 of them. Unbelievable

Q4 10:09 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 70-yd TD run, ties it 28-28 (Q4, 12:27). NC State went from 77% to 48% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave NC State a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (NC State was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.

A tight one: NC State bottomed out at 34% and won.

Up to 66% in the first quarter, then Louisville lost it.

FinalNC State 31-28 LouisvilleNC State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 8:05Kienholz 38-yd TD pass to Richardson, cuts it to 20-14NC State 85% → 67% (−18)
2Q4 12:27Brown 70-yd TD run, ties it 28-28NC State 77% → 48% (−29)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 8:05Kienholz 38-yd TD pass to Richardson, cuts it to 20-14Louisville 15% → 33% (+18)
2Q4 12:27Brown 70-yd TD run, ties it 28-28Louisville 23% → 53% (+30)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 10:09Louisville fans lament Brown's fumble as officials overturn the turnover callQuoted at the top of the page.The fact that this game is tied after all of our lost fumbles is remarkable reallyr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:53Officials overturn fumble call on Wilson run, ruling him downNow here’s the real question: if you’re an NC State fan would you prefer he’s down or that’s a fumble? If he keeps it, NC State wins. If he loses it, it might be one step closer…r/CFB game threadIn situations like this Id much rather they call it a fumble and be wrong and review it, because so many teams get screwed by a quick whistle that can't be reviewed when the call…r/CFB game thread

NC State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Louisville -5.5), at 45% for NC State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a NC State or Louisville flair (433 and 444); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show NC State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

NC State scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Louisville on 4 of its 11.

NC State’s drives are teal, Louisville’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Louisville’s side

Louisville’s best moment: Brown 70-yd TD run, ties it 28-28 (Q4 12:27). It lifted Louisville’s win chance by 29 points.

How Louisville fans took it: “I think this game just shows how deep the ACC is. The caliber of play is so high any given team can win on any night. I see no reason the ACC doesn't have 5-6…” r/CFB game thread

“The hot mic of the guy in the stands screaming EVERY SINGLE GAME is hilarious.”

A Louisville fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans peaked right at the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

NC State fans

doeren“Dread it. Run from it. 7-5, beating UNC and a 10 year Doeren extension arrives all the same.”

lead“Alright 6 point lead with 20 minutes to go, time to milk that clock out”

Louisville fans

brohm“Man every year this team is just disappointing. That’s the Jeff Brohm special.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, every, fumble, least.

Too close to call on 49% of plays.

What it cost

NC State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Louisville · lost1% → 1%

NC State · won2% → ▲3%

Win the conference

Louisville · lost1% → 1%

NC State · won2% → ▲3%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

NC State 31, Louisville 28

NC State covered +5.5 by 8.5. The total, 59, went over 56.5.

Team totals	Louisville	NC State
Total yards	485	493
Passing	21 of 30, 254 yds	25 of 41, 373 yds
Rushing	25 for 231 yds	43 for 120 yds
First downs	22	26
Third down	4 of 9	9 of 17
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	3	1
Penalties	3 for 40 yds	7 for 64 yds
Time of possession	22:40	37:20

Louisville leaders

Passing Lincoln Kienholz 21 of 30, 254 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Isaac Brown 9 for 125 yds, 1 TD; Keyjuan Brown 8 for 88 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Tre Richardson 8 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Lawayne McCoy 2 for 41 yds, 1 TD

NC State leaders

Passing CJ Bailey 24 of 40, 373 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Davion Gause 21 for 69 yds; Will Wilson 7 for 27 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Joshisa Trader 5 for 92 yds; Preston Douglas 5 for 74 yds

Rain through most of the game

69° at kickoff · 0.05 in of rain by radar over the stadium

October game-day temperatures at Carter-Finley Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 12:27 left6:17 p.m.

Louisville 28, NC State 28 · NC State 48% to win

no rain · 64°

Brown 70-yd TD run, ties it 28-28

Measured at Raleigh / Durham airport, 7.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Louisville · 2-2

Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 47th now, up 14 spots.

2-2 in its last 4, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 27-30 vs Wake ForestTop 25 #71 of 668

lost by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 41-31 vs SMUTop 25 #13 of 668

won by 10 as a 3-point favorite

W 59-13 vs Villanova #148 of 668

won by 46 as a 39.5-point favorite

L 38-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #11 of 668

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Last 4 games

NC State · 2-2

Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 41st now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 41-31 vs App State #92 of 668

won by 10 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 31-35 @ Vanderbilt #42 of 668

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 73-0 vs Richmond #166 of 668

won by 73 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 8-34 @ VirginiaTop 25 #54 of 668

lost by 26 as a 4-point underdog

Week by week

NC State

Wk 1Lat Virginia8-34
Wk 2Wvs Richmond73-0
Wk 3Lat Vanderbilt31-35
Wk 4Wvs App State41-31

Louisville

Wk 1Lat Ole Miss38-41
Wk 2Wvs Villanova59-13
Wk 3Wvs SMU41-31
Wk 4Lvs Wake Forest27-30

Power rating by week

NC State is rated 0.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Louisville’s passing EPA against NC State, 79 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Louisville’s passing EPA against NC State’s defense
Louisville offense, 87th percentile · NC State defense, 8th
Louisville’s EPA/play against NC State’s defense
Louisville offense, 93rd percentile · NC State defense, 24th
Louisville’s explosive plays against NC State’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · NC State defense, 29th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LouisvilleNC State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Louisville leads the series 9-4

13 meetings since 1951 · Louisville has won the last 2

2023Louisville 13-10
2022Louisville 25-10
2021NC State 28-13
2019Louisville 34-20
2018NC State 52-10

Each line is NC State’s chance to win through that meeting. NC State is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

NC State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (16th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Louisville favored by 5.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Louisville by 5.5, on the usual path until 5:19 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward NC State.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild, with rain. Feels like 68° at kickoff.

Louisville at NC State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh

68°feels like at kickoff
0.06 inrain at kickoff
94weather score, Comfortable

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Carter-Finley Stadium that day, a 6 pm, 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 94 at 3:30 pm.

11 am: 94, Comfortable
noon: 84, Mixed
12:45 pm: 80, Mixed
2 pm: 82, Mixed
3:30 pm: 94, Comfortable (this game)
4:15 pm: 99, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
8 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

NC State is worth +6.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 84th percentile.

75% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (39-13 home, 17-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.6 at home vs. away over 100 games — outside the ±5.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 422 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

NC State14th0-1
Louisville9th1-1

Full ACC standings

NC State beats Louisville 31-28