SMU at Louisville Prediction & Odds

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SMU #16

2-0 W3 · Warming

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Louisville #23

1-1 W1 · Mixed

Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Louisville (#23, 1‑1) hosts SMU (#16, 2‑0). The market has Louisville favored by 1.5.

How they got here

Last two games

SMU · 2-0

Picked #15 in the preseason · now #12 — about right.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 56–10 vs UC Davis #102 of 669

won by 46 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 27–24 @ Florida State #83 of 669

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Last two games

Louisville · 1-1

Picked #61 in the preseason · now #56 — about right.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 59–13 vs Villanova #148 of 669

won by 46 as a 39.5-point favorite

L 38–41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #11 of 669

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

What’s at stake

Make the CFP field

SMU · 38%38% → ▲45% if win38% → ▼26% if loss

Louisville · 4%4% → ▲7% if win4% → ▼2% if loss

Win the conference

SMU · 28%28% → ▲33% if win28% → ▼21% if loss

Louisville · 3%3% → ▲6% if win3% → ▼1% if loss

Win it all

SMU · 2%2% → ▲2% if win2% → ▼1% if loss

Louisville · 0%0% → ▲0% if win0% → ▼0% if loss

CFP odds as of September 15, 2026

See this week’s biggest postseason implications ›

The series

SMU leads the series 4-0

4 meetings since 1983 · SMU has won the last 4

2025SMU 38–6
2024SMU 34–27
1984SMU 41–7
1983SMU 24–6

Face-off

What each fanbase carries into this one.

SMU

The chip · vs the national media

Mustang fans are done being a cautionary tale. They'll tell you SMU paid its debt twice over, made the first 12-team Playoff in year one of the ACC, and that anyone still leading with the penalty is forty years behind the program.

Louisville

The chip · vs the national media

Brohm himself said it out loud — an unbeaten stretch and three straight strong years, and Louisville still couldn't crack the rankings. Fans hear the same message every fall: prove it against somebody big, because we're not penciling you in.

What this game touches

So close, never through. Jeff Brohm came home and went 9-4 in 2023, 9-4 in 2024 and 9-4 again in 2025 — three straight strong seasons, the second time in school history — yet Louisville keeps finishing 4-4 in the ACC, missing the title game and the national rankings while a Boca Raton Bowl win over Toledo papered over a year that flirted with more.

Best players

SMU

Kevin Jennings (QB) · 767 passing yards — Heisman odds: 18th (+4000)
Yannick Smith (WR) · 151 receiving yards
Jimmy Wyrick (S) · 11 tackles

Louisville

Lincoln Kienholz (QB) · 639 passing yards — Heisman odds: 33rd (+4000)
Tre Richardson (WR) · 181 receiving yards
Lawayne McCoy (WR) · 164 receiving yards

The line, and the room

SMU fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (81st percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.

Home −1.5 · O/U 59.5

Conditions

90°F · 6 mph wind · Fair

Louisville is worth +6.0 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.

60% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (28–19 home, 15–22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +7.0 at home vs. away over 68 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 722 miles to get here.

Recent games

Louisville

Wk 1Lat Ole Miss38-41
Wk 2Wvs Villanova59-13

SMU

Wk 1Wat Florida State27-24
Wk 2Wvs UC Davis56-10

Trajectory

The market

Spread: −1 → −1.5

Book hold: 4.7%

Conference standings

Louisville#120-0
SMU#11-0