Wake Forest 38-36 Purdue (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Wake Forest · Purdue

Wake Forest2-038

Purdue1-136Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind. · Crowd 50,363

Wake Forest beat Purdue 38-36 in 2 overtimes after its win chance fell to 9%.

Winners have been down to 9% or less in about 1 of every 12 games since 2018.

We had Wake Forest favored. It won.

Next: Wake Forest lost to Miami 33-20, Fri Sep 18

Next: Purdue lost to UCLA 52-38, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Brohm levels of clock management

Q4 3:40 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Lopez 3-yd TD run, two-point try good, Wake Forest goes ahead 38-36 (2OT). Wake Forest went from 52% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wake Forest a 52% chance, and the closing betting line (Wake Forest was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

17 unanswered

Wake Forest · Q2 11:49

FinalWake Forest 38-36 PurdueWake Forest wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The five plays that swung it

1Q4 0:55Ijeboi 3-yd runWake Forest 34% → 61% (+27)
2OT4th and 9Browne 9-yd TD pass to Morrissette, ties it 30-30Wake Forest 79% → 40% (−39)
32OTBrowne 6-yd runWake Forest 68% → 28% (−40)
42OT4th and 15Lopez 15-yd pass to Hernandez, turnover on downsWake Forest 25% → 52% (+27)
52OTLopez 3-yd TD run, two-point try good, Wake Forest goes ahead 38-36Wake Forest 52% → 100% (+48)

The five plays that swung it

1Q4 0:55Ijeboi 3-yd runPurdue 66% → 39% (−27)
2OT4th and 9Browne 9-yd TD pass to Morrissette, ties it 30-30Purdue 21% → 60% (+39)
32OTBrowne 6-yd runPurdue 32% → 72% (+40)
42OT4th and 15Lopez 15-yd pass to Hernandez, turnover on downsPurdue 75% → 48% (−27)
52OTLopez 3-yd TD run, two-point try good, Wake Forest goes ahead 38-36Purdue 48% → 0% (−48)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 3:40Wake Forest punts, giving Purdue a chance to winQuoted at the top of the page.

Wake Forest’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Wake Forest -2.5), at 44% for Wake Forest (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Purdue or Wake Forest flair (454 and 92); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Wake Forest’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Wake Forest scored on 7 of its 9 drives; Purdue on 7 of its 11.

Wake Forest’s drives are teal, Purdue’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Purdue’s side

Purdue’s best moment: Browne 6-yd run (2OT). It lifted Purdue’s win chance by 40 points.

How Purdue fans took it: “Is this the part where the big ten replay gives us one more second?” r/CFB game thread

“It wasn't pretty but I'll take it lol”

A Wake Forest fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

The winner fell to 4%.

What it cost

Wake Forest’s chance to win the conference fell from 1% to 0%.

Win the conference

Wake Forest · won1% → ▼0%

Purdue · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36

Purdue covered +2.5 by 0.5. The total, 74, went over 51.5.

Team totals	Wake Forest	Purdue
Total yards	411	455
Passing	16 of 27, 225 yds	32 of 42, 329 yds
Rushing	41 for 186 yds	40 for 126 yds
First downs	25	29
Third down	5 of 11	7 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	4 for 50 yds	8 for 50 yds
Time of possession	27:48	32:12

Wake Forest leaders

Passing Giovanni Lopez 16 of 27, 225 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Giovanni Lopez 13 for 59 yds, 2 TD; Deuce Lawrence 12 for 45 yds
Receiving Carlos Hernandez 6 for 88 yds; Kameran Shanks 3 for 39 yds

Purdue leaders

Passing Ryan Browne 32 of 42, 329 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Fame Ijeboi 27 for 114 yds, 3 TD; Chauncey Magwood 1 for 18 yds
Receiving Chauncey Magwood 5 for 77 yds; Asaad Waseem 6 for 65 yds

No rain and calm

78° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 9

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 62 other games played at Ross-Ade Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 72°, with about 7 in 10 games between 62° and 81°.

September game-day temperatures at Ross-Ade Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Overtime3:39 p.m.

Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36 · Purdue 0% to win

no rain · wind 3 mph from the south-southwest · 85°

Lopez 3-yd TD run, two-point try good, Wake Forest goes ahead 38-36

Measured at Lafayette airport, 1.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Wake Forest · 9-4

Rated 81st in our preseason ratings, 79th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 14-point win over Mississippi State as a 3-point underdog.

W 43-29 @ Mississippi State #74 of 667

won by 14 as a 3-point underdog

L 32-49 @ Duke #60 of 667

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 52-14 vs Delaware #181 of 667

won by 38 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 28-12 vs North Carolina #95 of 667

won by 16 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 16-9 @ VirginiaTop 25 #48 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 7-42 @ Florida StateTop 25 #28 of 667

lost by 35 as a 12.5-point underdog

W 13-12 vs SMUTop 25 #24 of 667

won by 1 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 39-14 @ Oregon State #126 of 667

won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 30-23 @ Virginia Tech #78 of 667

won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 29-30 vs Georgia TechTop 25 #44 of 667

lost by 1 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 24-34 vs NC State #46 of 667

lost by 10 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 42-10 vs Western Carolina #189 of 667

won by 32 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 10-9 vs Kennesaw State #175 of 667

won by 1 as an 18.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Purdue · 2-10

Rated 119th in our preseason ratings, 117th now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 3-56 vs IndianaTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 53 as a 28.5-point underdog

L 13-49 @ WashingtonTop 25 #19 of 667

lost by 36 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 10-34 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 24 as a 30.5-point underdog

L 16-21 @ MichiganTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 5 as a 22.5-point underdog

L 24-27 vs Rutgers #77 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 0-19 @ Northwestern #58 of 667

lost by 19 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 20-27 @ Minnesota #59 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 27-43 vs IllinoisTop 25 #44 of 667

lost by 16 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 30-56 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 26 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 17-33 vs USCTop 25 #20 of 667

lost by 16 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 34-17 vs Southern Illinois #183 of 667

won by 17 as a 22.5-point favorite

W 31-0 vs Ball State #176 of 667

won by 31 as a 16.5-point favorite

Week by week

Purdue

Wk 1Wvs Indiana State44-19

Wake Forest

Wk 1Wvs Akron38-16

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Purdue, 93 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Purdue’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 95th percentile · Purdue defense, 2nd
Wake Forest’s EPA/play against Purdue’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 94th percentile · Purdue defense, 9th
Wake Forest’s explosive plays against Purdue’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 79th percentile · Purdue defense, 1st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Wake ForestPurdue

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Purdue leads the series 4-1

5 meetings since 1968 · Purdue won the last meeting

2003Purdue 16-10
2002Wake Forest 24-21
1978Purdue 14-7
1977Purdue 26-17
1968Purdue 28-27

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wake Forest fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (61st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Wake Forest favored by 2.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Wake Forest by 2.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 253 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Purdue.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 86° at kickoff.

Wake Forest at Purdue · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette

86°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
73weather score, Rough
Middleof the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's seven kickoff times. At Ross-Ade Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 73 at noon.

noon: 73, Rough (this game)
1 pm: 69, Rough
2 pm: 64, Rough
3:30 pm: 63, Rough
6 pm: 82, Mixed
7 pm: 93, Comfortable
7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Purdue is worth +1.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile.

37% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (19-32 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 468 miles to get here.

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From Purdue’s side

When fans got loud

What it cost

Box score

Wake Forest leaders

Purdue leaders

No rain and calm

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Purdue

Wake Forest

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Purdue, 93 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wake Forest by 2.5, and it went to form

The market

Weather at kickoff

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Where next

Wake Forest beats Purdue 38-36 in 2 overtimes

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From Purdue’s side

When fans got loud

What it cost

Box score

Wake Forest leaders

Purdue leaders

No rain and calm

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Purdue

Wake Forest

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Purdue, 93 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wake Forest by 2.5, and it went to form

The market

Weather at kickoff

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Where next