Clemson at Florida State
Florida State (3‑4) hosts Clemson (4‑2). The market has Clemson favored by 1.5. Florida State’s rushing offense is at the 83rd percentile; Clemson’s run defense is at the 43rd.
How they got here
Last three games
Clemson · 4-2
Rated 11th in our preseason ratings, 40th now, down 29 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 37-0 vs Charleston Southern #194 of 668
won by 37 as a 42.5-point favorite
Last three games
Florida State · 3-4
Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 56th now, up 26 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 31-point win over Virginia as a 1.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Florida State’s rushing EPA against Clemson, 40 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida State’s rushing EPA against Clemson’s defense
Florida State offense, 83rd percentile · Clemson defense, 43rd
Clemson’s success rate against Florida State’s defense
Clemson offense, 8th percentile · Florida State defense, 26th
What’s at stake
Clemson
- Clemson is ranked #23, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Clemson is coming off a 37-point win.
Florida State
- Florida State is 3 games back in ACC with 3 left to make it up.
- Mike Norvell is 1-4 all-time against Dabo Swinney.
The series
Florida State leads the series 21-17
38 meetings since 1970 · Clemson has won the last 2
- 2025Clemson 24-10
- 2024Clemson 29-13
- 2023Florida State 31-24
- 2022Clemson 34-28
- 2021Clemson 30-20
Each line is Florida State’s chance to win through that meeting. Florida State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Clemson
The chip · vs the national mediaThe coastal panels never believed a champion could be raised in the upstate pines; the fanbase says they wrote the obituary in 2011 and again every down year, and Clemson built two titles answering it. The doubt in 2025 just sounds like an old song played loud.
What this game touches
The 2025 unravel. A preseason No. 4 that Swinney said could go 16-0 finished 7-6 — Clemson's fewest wins since 2010 — as Cade Klubnik's Heisman buzz collapsed into a fourth-round NFL exit, and Clemson sent nine players to the 2026 draft while winning only seven games.
Florida State
The chip · vs the committeeFans will tell you the sport changed its own rules to keep them out — that a perfect season and a conference title weren't enough because the committee decided, in a back room, that the Seminoles didn't pass an eye test. They expanded the Playoff the very next year; the bracket that would have included them came one season too late.
What this game touches
The 2023 snub and the wreckage it triggered. Florida State finished 13-0 and won the ACC, then the committee left it out of the four-team Playoff for one-loss Alabama and Texas — the only undefeated Power Five champ ever excluded. The roster gutted, opted out of the Orange Bowl, lost it 63-3, and cratered to 2-10 in 2024; a 5-7 stumble in 2025 (after starting the year beating Alabama and climbing to No. 7) showed the climb back isn't done.
Best players
Clemson
- Corey Myrick (S) · 43 tackles
- Sammy Brown (LB) · 40 tackles
- Jeremiah Alexander (LB) · 39 tackles
Florida State
- Ousmane Kromah (RB) · 609 rushing yards
- Ashton Daniels (QB) · 1,618 passing yards
- CJ Richard Jr. (DB) · 40 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Ousmane Kromah (RB) — Florida State’s leading rusher (609 rushing yards) takes on Clemson’s run defense (43rd percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Clemson fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (19th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Clemson favored by 1.5 · Total 51.5
Clemson by 1.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Clemson’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Doak Campbell Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 78
Clemson at Florida State · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Doak Campbell Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Doak Campbell Stadium: noon Saturdays score 79, 3:30 pm 78, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 79, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 78, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Florida State is worth +7.2 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile.
58% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 12-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 305 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Florida State
- Wk 3Lat Alabama36-50
- Wk 4Wvs Central Arkansas34-7
- Wk 5Wvs Virginia38-7
- Wk 6Lat Louisville20-44
- Wk 7Lat Miami35-43
Clemson
- Wk 2Wvs Georgia Southern22-7
- Wk 3Wvs North Carolina28-20
- Wk 4Wat California24-10
- Wk 5Lvs Miami13-41
- Wk 7Wvs Charleston Southern37-0
Power rating by week
Clemson is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida State15th1-3
- Clemson6th2-1
Last meeting in our History pages
- Florida State 31, Clemson 24Sep 23, 2023
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2016.