Notre Dame went 0-2, ripped off ten straight, and still got left out of the Playoff. The redshirt-freshman QB who drove that run, CJ Carr, is now the Heisman favorite -- and Year 2 opens at the team that bounced him.
6′2″ · 215 lb · Saline, MI · Saline
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #35 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 239 pass yds, 2 TD, -6 rush yds, vs Wisconsin
Swing playSwung Notre Dame from 44% to 65% to win.Navy at Notre Dame · 49-10
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Notre Dame went 0-2, ripped off ten straight, and still got left out of the Playoff. The redshirt-freshman QB who drove that run, CJ Carr, is now the Heisman favorite -- and Year 2 opens at the team that bounced him.
Aura™ · Him Watch
-6aura tax
85th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=196
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
Marcus Freeman, CJ Carr and the 2026 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are back and ready for spring ball. What are the biggest questions? A big recruiting weekend, breaking down the running back room and more on this episode of the Irish Squad…
Also worth knowing:
“Notre Dame has zero chance to win the natty. All they have on offense is Carr”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
If Williams can’t run against Rice he’s not running against anybody. If Price had stayed I think ND could’ve had a shot at a Natty this year with stellar QB and RB play and mediocre receivers. Without an upper echelon RB I don’t think Carr gets it done on his own with this receiver core.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 13, 2026 · via notredamefootball
That team is Miami, whose season-opening win over the Irish last fall became the exact tiebreaker the committee used to keep a 10-2 Notre Dame home. The schedule-makers put the rematch first. You couldn't script it crueler.
Here's what the box score buries: no returning quarterback in the country was blitzed more than Carr -- 36.7% of his dropbacks -- because defenses saw a first-year starter and came hunting. It backfired. When teams didn't blitz, nobody in America averaged more per dropback (9.4). He finished fifth nationally in efficiency and a Manning Award finalist as a freshman.
The bloodline is the subplot you'll hear all year: Carr was raised in Saline, Michigan -- grandson of Lloyd Carr, the man who won Michigan's last title in 1997 -- and he chose Notre Dame over the Wolverines. Now he carries the title hopes of the program Ann Arbor loves to hate.
The forward question isn't the arm; it's the margin. The independent path leaves almost none -- win at Miami and BYU and Resolves 2027-01-20.PENDING. Carr says his Year 2 leap is leadership and footwork, not numbers. The Irish haven't won it all since 1988. If the sophomore who shrugged off the blitz becomes the closer this program's been missing, the story stops being "good Notre Dame QB" and becomes "the one who ended the drought."
A falsifiable call from this player's outlook. Not yet gradeable.
win at Miami and BYU for an 87%-likely Playoff bid; slip once and the snub debate reopens
Graded as: at least 1 College Football Playoff game in 2026.
Resolves 2027-01-20.
PENDINGHis career
Carr plays the position like a chess clock -- pre-snap he's already three moves ahead, and the ball is gone the instant his back foot lands. The surprise is where it's going: he's not a checkdown surgeon, he's a downfield one. His average throw traveled nearly fifteen yards in the air -- 94th-percentile depth -- and he still finished 92nd percentile in success rate and 96th in explosive passes. He takes shots, and he connects. What he doesn't do is run; thirty-three yards all season says he'd rather solve the problem than flee it. The edge is the flip side of the gift: when the first read's gone and the pocket caves, the anticipation that makes him lethal on schedule has less to lean on -- exactly the off-platform footwork he chased all offseason. In a 2026 where Notre Dame needs him to carry a title run, the question was never the deep ball; it's the third-and-8 when the script's gone.
Written by our staff.
Career arc
Badges
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Notre Dame | 53 | 73 | 72.6% | 726 | 9.9 | 6 | 0 | 183.3 | 72 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Notre Dame | 195 | 293 | 66.6% | 2,741 | 9.4 | 24 | 6 | 168.1 | 87 | -- | -- |
| Career | 248 | 366 | 67.8% | 3,467 | 9.5 | 30 | 6 | 171.1 | 84 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Notre Dame | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 1 | -- |
| 2025 | Notre Dame | 41 | 33 | 0.8 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 46 | 36 | 0.8 | 4 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 41-13vs Wisconsin | 19/29 | 239 | 2 | 0 | 8.2 | 81.3 | |
| Wk 2 | W 52-0vs Rice | 16/20 | 253 | 4 | 0 | 12.7 | 95.7 | Season-high 253 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 27-10vs Michigan State | 18/24 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 9.8 | 92.3 | |
| Total | 53/73 | 726 | 6 | 0 | 10.2 | 89.8 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 41–13
vs Wisconsin
239 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 81.3 · -6 rush yds (2 car)
Dominant 28-point win at home against Wisconsin.
With A. Williams — 90 rush yds (20 car) · 2 TD · J. Scaife — 43.5 yards per punt · 2 punts · 46 long
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +234 passing yards.
Season context · Team result + system
2 seasons under Marcus Freeman — 13-2 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: interceptions (93rd percentile). Strength: yards / att (92nd percentile). Concern: rush yards (28th percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
11.169 of 126 QBsSack rate
2.7%31 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (31 of 126 QBs) and still 9 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 72.6% completion on 73 attempts · 57% completion on 14 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 62 dropbacks72Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
58.1%100th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected pointsYards per attempt weight 56%
9.5399th pct of FBS QBssacks excludedSack rate weight 21% (penalty)
3.2%86th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot seeOpponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (13 of 75 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 242 | 2.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 242 | 2.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Marcus Freeman
Pass share
45.3%
86 pass / 104 run
Plays / game
63.3
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
One of 52 players who were elite at two different things in 2025. See the others ›
Play style
Carr plays the position like a chess clock -- pre-snap he's already three moves ahead, and the ball is gone the instant his back foot lands. The surprise is where it's going: he's not a checkdown surgeon, he's a downfield one. His average throw traveled nearly fifteen yards in the air -- 94th-percentile depth -- and he still finished 92nd percentile in success rate and 96th in explosive passes. He takes shots, and he connects. What he doesn't do is run; thirty-three yards all season says he'd rather solve the problem than flee it. The edge is the flip side of the gift: when the first read's gone and the pocket caves, the anticipation that makes him lethal on schedule has less to lean on -- exactly the off-platform footwork he chased all offseason. In a 2026 where Notre Dame needs him to carry a title run, the question was never the deep ball; it's the third-and-8 when the script's gone.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Drew Mestemaker’s 2025 season.
Matches Drew on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Kyle Trask’s path through Florida.
Matches Kyle on
As a freshman, his production profile tracks closest to Darian Mensah's freshman season at Tulane (2024).
Matches Darian on
Differs from Darian on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#3 in market ▼ from #1 · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #5 — sustained finalist conversation.