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OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Max Duggan /TCU

Max Duggan

QB · TCU · Sr · #15

Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.

NOW IN NFLLos Angeles — drafted 2023, Rd 7, Pick 22, #239 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Los AngelesEntering 4th NFL season

#239Rd 7 · Pick 22
Los AngelesEntering 4th NFL season

QB · TCU · BIG 12

Max Duggan

  • 4
  • #15
  • 6-2 | 210 lb
  • Council Bluffs, IA

CFB Zeitgeist QB Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#2

8.9% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

8.9%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

In contention

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 5 · Apex

R15 · POTY finalist

Position-of-the-Year finalist. Among the nation's elite at the position.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

2 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R15 POTY finalist · 2022

2021

TCU · QB

2022

TCU · QB

R15 · POTY finalist

Apex

NFL Draft 2023 · Rd 7, Pick 22 · #239 overall · Los Angeles

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2021–2022
2,0482021
3,6982022

+81%

Up 81% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#211 national
CFB
College
TCU
2021–2022
NFL
NFL Draft
R7 · #239
Los Angeles · 2023

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class4
Jersey15
Measurements6-2 | 210 lb
HometownCouncil Bluffs, IA
Primary teamTCU

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 211 recruit
Composite rating 0.9169 HighSchool
Signed with TCU 2019
Origin Lewis Central Council Bluffs, IA, USA
Class Profile Context
2019 4-star | 0.9169 No. 211 recruit | HighSchool | TCU

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2022 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 20
Current nowcast#2Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#3Where the full season sim points
Win probability8.9%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability50.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability99.2%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish#2Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to TCU

Composite

0.9169

#211 national

NFL Draft

2023 · Rd 7, Pick 22

#239 overall · Los Angeles

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Max Duggan

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Max Duggan

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The unusual part of Max Duggan's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For TCU, he has 3,698 passing yards and 32 touchdown passes, but he also adds 423 rushing yards and 9 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.

Current place #2 8.9% win | 50.0% finalist
Role load 52.2% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 211 recruit

2022 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2022 season snapshot | final

2022 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 3,698 32 TD | 8 INT | #6/382 (99th pct)
Completion rate 63.7% 267/419 completions | #150/383 (61st pct)
Yards/attempt 8.8 Explosiveness through the air | #56/382 (86th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Vertical threat | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerVertical threatDual-threat

2022 Season · Final

2022 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
267 93rd
ATT
419 96th
CMP%
63.7% 61st
Y/A
8.8 86th

Passing Production

YDS
3,698 99th
TD
32 99th
INT
8 17th

Rushing

CAR
137 94th
YDS
423 89th
YPC
3.1 56th
TD
9 95th

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021TCU5-7HC: Gary Patterson · Run-heavy
2022TCU13-2HC: Sonny Dykes · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2022TCU26741963.7%3,6988.8328159.2----
2021TCU14522763.9%2,0489.0166157.6----
Career2 loaded seasons41264663.8%5,7468.94814158.7----
SeasonTeam
2022TCU1374233.19--
2021TCU1053523.43--
Career2 loaded seasons2427753.212--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 423 9 rush TD | #45/408 (89th pct)
Usage 52.2% 96.9% pass share | 23.8% rush share | #60/428 (86th pct)
Passing WEPA +0.62 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #1/200 (100th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 3,698 #6/382 99th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 32 #4/407 99th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 267 #27/383 93rd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 63.7% #150/383 61st pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 8.8 #56/382 86th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards 423 #45/408 89th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Value Passing WEPA +0.62 #1/200 100th pct Opponent-adjusted passing value | 216 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage Role share 52.2% #60/428 86th pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 419 #16/407 96th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 8 #339/407 17th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 137 #27/408 94th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 67 #13/391 97th pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 9 #23/408 95th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry 3.1 #180/407 56th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 96.9% #10/428 98th pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 65.9% #71/428 84th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 65.6% #65/428 85th pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 48.9% #43/428 90th pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 47.5% #98/428 77th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 46.3% #57/428 87th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 23.8% #41/428 91st pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.33 #32/140 78th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 85 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #69/258 74th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2022

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Sonny Dykes

Pass share

51.9%

460 pass / 426 run

Plays / game

68.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.6%

340 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2022

2 coaches
2021
Gary Patterson
TCU
2022
Sonny Dykes
TCU
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Gary Patterson → Sonny Dykes. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownCouncil Bluffs, IA
Height6'2"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey15

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

3 entries
🏅

POSITION AWARDS

Unitas Golden Arm, Davey O'Brien

2022 season

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2022)

All-Big 12

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Heisman

Best official finish: #2

Finished in the top end of the Heisman vote on a completed ballot, which is a cleaner historical signal than model-only attention.

Finalist

1 finalist season

Invited into the official finalist tier in 2022. That belongs in the trophy case, not buried in a table.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Votes

Heisman votes in 1 season

Even lower-volume award recognition is worth preserving because it marks seasons where a player entered the national conversation.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2022 Unitas Golden Arm position_award TCU | Unitas Golden Arm winner | QB
2022 Davey O'Brien position_award TCU | Davey O'Brien winner | QB
2022 All-Big 12 all_conference TCU | Big 12 QB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2022 TCU QB4 #2 #3 8.9% 50.0% #2 finish 1420 W20 snapshot | Big 12 | Official finalist
2021 TCU QB4 #70 #96 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2022 TCU Big 12 QB 4 No. 15 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Council Bluffs, IA
2021 TCU Big 12 QB 4 No. 15 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Council Bluffs, IA