The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jerry Kill

Followed Doug Martin. Jerry Kill moved New Mexico State from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 2 seasons.

Peak, then fade
71–58
2008–2023 · 4 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 9th career season — faster than 10% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #332 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Northern Illinois, 3 seasons
+6.2
Regional Program II → Regional Program I.
Minnesota, 5 seasons
−0.6
Regional Program I → National Program III.
New Mexico State, 2 seasons
+4.1
Regional Program VI → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Minnesota2011–2015▲ 19.1ptTCU2021–2021– 0.0ptNew Mexico State2022–2023▲ 2.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

8–5 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Mark Dantonio.

Rivalry record
8–5
61.5% · 5 rivals
One-score games
20–19
51.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Iowa2–250%
Toledo2–167%
New Mexico2–0100%
Ball State2–0100%
Wisconsin0–20%
The toughest matchup
vs. Mark Dantonio0–3
3 meetings, 2011–2013
’11 L’12 L’13 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–2 0.0%
Power Program
7–15 31.8%
National Program
7–11 38.9%
Regional Program
40–18 69.0%

Coaching career

2022–2023
New Mexico Statecaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program VI → Regional Program V
Jerry Kill moved New Mexico State from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 2 seasons.

9th-best New Mexico State tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+45.8 pts
#3 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+9.1 pts
#68 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Doug Martin (2013–2021) · succeeded by Tony Sanchez (2024–2026).

Season20222023Trend
Record & result
Record7–610–5
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#106#112
Style — pass rate
Pass rate40.242.8
Coordinators
OCTim BeckTim Beck
DCNate Dreiling / Melvin RiceNate Dreiling / Melvin Rice
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7982
Defense7020
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%32.336.7
Red-zone pass%28.836.8
4th-down go%opp. territory40.723.4
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
16
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
23
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-7
#145 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 238 lbs
across 12 of 16 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.5 lbs
#132 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#12 of 255 · more than most
Top states: MI (2), TX (2), MO (1), KY (1), UT (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
48.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
48.5
position-weighted
Net
+0.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Eli Stowers (QB) from Texas A&M
Biggest loss: Trevor Appelman (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
212 lbs
6′1″ avg · #408 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
206 lbs
6′0″ avg · #444 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #582 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
244 lbs
6′3″ avg · #402 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
302 lbs
6′4″ avg · #636 of 779 · less than most
D-line
282 lbs
6′2″ avg · #437 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
225 lbs
6′2″ avg · #570 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
186 lbs
5′11″ avg · #576 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
75%
#16 of 188 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
80%
#176 of 224 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
83%
#183 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat Bowling Green 24–19 Quick Lane Bowl2023: Lost to Fresno State 10–37 Isleta New Mexico Bowl

Coach of the Year: Conference USA Coach of the Year (2023)

17–11
2021–2021
TCUcaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program III
Jerry Kill slid TCU from Power Program II to Power Program III in 1 season.

5th-best TCU tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+11.8 pts
#58 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-50.9 pts
#209 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Sonny Dykes (2022–2026).

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
6
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
23
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-17
#160 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 252 lbs
across 5 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+23.5 lbs
#1 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#4 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TN (2), LA (1), TX (1), FL (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
23.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
50.7
position-weighted
Net
-27.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: T.J. Carter (CB) from Memphis
Biggest loss: Wilson Long (QB) to Vanderbilt
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Quarterback from high school
100%
#198 of 206 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Trevon Moehrig (2021), Garret Wallow (2021)

2–2
2011–2015
Minnesotacaretaker
National Program III → National Program III
Jerry Kill held Minnesota at National Program III for 5 seasons.

11th-best Minnesota tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+4.3 pts
#92 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+0.3 pts
#102 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tim Brewster (2007–2010).

Season20112012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record3–96–78–58–54–3
PostseasonL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#57#63
Style — pass rate
Pass rate29.848.9
Coordinators
OCMatt LimegroverMatt Limegrover
DCTracy ClaeysTracy Claeys
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense5154
Defense4950
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%21.938.1
Red-zone pass%21.034.5
4th-down go%opp. territory16.722.0
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Missouri 17–33 Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl2015: Beat Central Michigan 21–14 Quick Lane Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Ra'Shede Hageman (2014), Brock Vereen (2014), Maxx Williams (2015), Damien Wilson (2015), David Cobb (2015), Ced Thompson (2015), Eric Murray (2016), De'Vondre Campbell (2016)

29–29
2008–2010
Northern Illinoiscaretaker
Regional Program II → Regional Program I
Jerry Kill moved Northern Illinois from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

3rd-best Northern Illinois tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Joe Novak (1996–2007) · succeeded by Dave Doeren (2011–2012).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Larry English (2009)

23–16