New Mexico State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2024–now

Tony Sanchez Steady

Tony Sanchez slid New Mexico State from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 3 seasons.

2026 offense ranked in the 4th percentile nationally — historically bad

−3.0 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 49% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Chryst’s Pittsburgh run (2012–2014)

11th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Jerry Kill (2022–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3-9	4-8	3-5
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#131	#126	#134
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	39.3	57.0	47.8
Coordinators
OC	Tyler Wright / Andrew Mitchell	David Yost	David Yost
DC	Joe Morris	Joe Morris	Joe Morris
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	9	7	4
Defense	15	64	56
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	30.7	53.4	40.9
Red-zone pass%	31.8	57.6	40.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	18.8	19.5	41.9

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-22.9 pts

#183 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

+6.8 pts

#72 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-38

#40 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 238 lbs

across 33 of 59 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+1.4 lbs

#206 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#165 of 255 · middle half

Top states: CA (10), TX (7), MS (2), LA (2), AZ (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

52.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.1

position-weighted

Net

-3.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Deuce Hogan (QB) from Kentucky

Biggest loss: Diego Pavia (QB) to Vanderbilt

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Joe Morris → Joe Morris · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

205 lbs

6′1″ avg · #600 of 767 · bottom quarter

Running back

210 lbs

6′0″ avg · #291 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

190 lbs

6′0″ avg · #534 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

240 lbs

6′4″ avg · #547 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

301 lbs

6′4″ avg · #683 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

283 lbs

6′2″ avg · #399 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

219 lbs

6′1″ avg · #718 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

185 lbs

6′0″ avg · #629 of 771 · bottom quarter

Safety

188 lbs

6′0″ avg · #326 of 346 · bottom quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys D-line via the portal

100%

#1 of 239 stints

Buys Tight end via the portal

100%

#1 of 188 stints

Grows Linebacker from high school

100%

#205 of 225 stints

AI Narratives — “New Mexico State — stat check”.

−3.0

10-22

2022–2023

Jerry Kill Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

17-11

2013–2021

Doug Martin Steady

Doug Martin held the Aggies at Regional Program VI for 8 seasons.

2013 defense ranked in the 5th percentile nationally — historically bad

−0.9 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 40% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Chan Gailey’s Georgia Tech run (2002–2007)

14th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed DeWayne Walker (2009–2012) · succeeded by Jerry Kill (2022–2023).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	2-10	2-10	3-9	3-9	7-6	3-9	2-10	1-1	2-10
Postseason	—	—	—	—	W bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#119	#121	#124	#126	#127	#123	#119	#130	#113
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.8	49.1	50.6	50.3	64.2	60.3	53.6	—	58.3
Coordinators
OC	—	Gregg Brandon	Doug Martin	Doug Martin	Doug Martin	Doug Martin	Doug Martin	Doug Martin	Doug Martin
DC	—	Larry Coyer	Zane Vance	Frank Spaziani	Frank Spaziani	Frank Spaziani	Frank Spaziani	Frank Spaziani	Frank Spaziani
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	41	25	40	24	44	17	27	—	18
Defense	5	7	9	39	65	40	20	—	6
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	37.8	42.2	54.3	48.0	64.4	59.5	52.6	—	62.6
Red-zone pass%	34.2	40.0	44.1	46.3	57.1	47.0	47.1	—	46.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	28.6	48.6	43.2	40.0	29.4	35.9	43.2	—	25.6

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-0.2 pts

#111 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-1.1 pts

#111 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-9

#183 of 187 FBS stints

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

3.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

21.4

position-weighted

Net

-17.8

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Eli Johnson (IOL) from Ole Miss

Biggest loss: Camden Chustz (OT) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Gregg Brandon → Doug Martin · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 42.2% → 54.3% (+12.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Larry Coyer → Zane Vance · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Zane Vance → Frank Spaziani · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Running back

199 lbs

5′10″ avg · #648 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

196 lbs

6′1″ avg · #255 of 791 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

308 lbs

6′4″ avg · #413 of 779 · middle half

D-line

273 lbs

6′3″ avg · #609 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

224 lbs

6′2″ avg · #602 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

191 lbs

6′1″ avg · #325 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2017: Beat Utah State 26-20 Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Jaleel Scott (2018), Jason Huntley (2020)

−0.9

25-74

2009–2012

DeWayne Walker Steady

DeWayne Walker held the Aggies at Regional Program VI for 4 seasons.

2009 offense ranked in the 0th percentile nationally — historically bad

−1.0 pts over 4 seasons · top 38% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech run (2022–2025)

16th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Hal Mumme (2005–2008) · succeeded by Doug Martin (2013–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2009	2010	2011	2012
Record & result
Record	3-10	2-10	4-9	1-11
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#107	#104	#121	#88
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	34.8	45.6	50.3	50.8
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	0	10	65	12
Defense	15	10	16	14
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	36.5	40.7	51.5	43.3
Red-zone pass%	33.3	35.0	33.7	34.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	23.5	17.1	33.3	46.2

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Davon House (2011), Jonte Green (2012), Jeremy Harris (2013)

−1.0

10-40

2005–2008

Hal Mumme Steady

Hal Mumme slid the Aggies from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 4 seasons.

Averaged a 62% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

−3.2 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 47% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Charlie Weis’s Notre Dame run (2005–2009)

9th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Tony Samuel (1997–2004) · succeeded by DeWayne Walker (2009–2012).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2005	2006	2007	2008
Record & result
Record	0-12	4-8	4-9	3-9
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#117	#107	#104	#103
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	61.2	65.3	62.7	60.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	19	68	42	27
Defense	45	36	29	15
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	66.1	71.6	59.4	64.7
Red-zone pass%	63.6	65.5	64.4	70.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	66.7	38.2	61.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

−3.2

11-38

1997–2004

Tony Samuel Steady

Tony Samuel moved the Aggies from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 8 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+3.7 pts over 8 seasons · top 42% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jim Colletto’s Purdue run (1991–1996)

8th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Hess (1990–1996) · succeeded by Hal Mumme (2005–2008).

Season	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Record & result
Record	2-9	3-8	6-5	3-8	5-7	7-5	3-9	5-6
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	#99
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	45.6
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	56
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	26
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	31.0
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Interior line from high school

100%

#198 of 224 stints

Grows Wide receiver from high school

100%

#230 of 243 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Chris Barnes (2001), Siddeeq Shabazz (2003)

+3.7

34-57

1990–1996

Jim Hess Steady

Jim Hess held New Mexico State at Regional Program VI for 7 seasons.

+0.7 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 43% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Charlie Weatherbie’s UL Monroe run (2003–2009)

13th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Knoll (1986–1989) · succeeded by Tony Samuel (1997–2004).

2 NFL Draft picks: Aaron Laing (1994), Troy Sienkiewicz (1995)

+0.7

22-55

1986–1989

Mike Knoll Steady

Mike Knoll slid New Mexico State from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 4 seasons.

−4.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 42% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Sanford Sr.’s UNLV run (2005–2009)

12th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Fred Zechman (1983–1985) · succeeded by Jim Hess (1990–1996).

−4.0

4-40

1983–1985

Fred Zechman Steady

Fred Zechman held the Aggies at Regional Program V for 3 seasons.

−1.3 pts over 3 seasons · top 39% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Kyle Flood’s Rutgers run (2012–2015)

7th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Gil Krueger (1978–1982) · succeeded by Mike Knoll (1986–1989).

3 NFL Draft picks: Fredd Young (1984), Leo Barker (1984), Kim Locklin (1985)

−1.3

8-25

1978–1982

Gil Krueger Steady

Gil Krueger slid New Mexico State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

−4.7 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 38% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Haynes’s Kent State run (2013–2017)

6th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Bradley (1973–1977) · succeeded by Fred Zechman (1983–1985).

1 NFL Draft pick: Kerry Locklin (1982)

−4.7

17-37-1

1973–1977

Jim Bradley Steady

Jim Bradley held the Aggies at Regional Program III for 5 seasons.

−0.9 pts over 5 seasons · top 38% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brad Scott’s South Carolina run (1994–1998)

5th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Wood (1968–1972) · succeeded by Gil Krueger (1978–1982).

4 NFL Draft picks: Jim Germany (1975), Duriel Harris (1976), Walt Williams (1977), Cliff Olander (1977)

−0.9

23-31-1

1968–1972

Jim Wood Steady

Jim Wood slid New Mexico State from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 5 seasons.

−4.0 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 42% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Sanford Sr.’s UNLV run (2005–2009)

2nd-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Warren Woodson (1958–1967) · succeeded by Jim Bradley (1973–1977).

7 NFL Draft picks: Roy Gerela (1969), Ruby Jackson (1969), Rick Hackley (1969), George Wells (1971), Ron James (1972), Joe Jackson (1972), Andy Dorris (1973)

−4.0

21-30-1

1958–1967

Warren Woodson Builder

Warren Woodson raised New Mexico State from Regional Program VI to Regional Program II.

+16.3 pts over 10 seasons · top 33% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Ron McBride’s Utah run (1990–2002)

3rd-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Tony Cavallo (1955–1957) · succeeded by Jim Wood (1968–1972).

+16.3

63-36-3

1955–1957

Tony Cavallo Steady

Tony Cavallo held the Aggies at Regional Program VI for 3 seasons.

+0.1 pts over 3 seasons · top 34% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Moeller’s Michigan run (1990–1994)

15th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed James Patton (1953–1954) · succeeded by Warren Woodson (1958–1967).

+0.1

7-23

1953–1954

James Patton Short tenure

2-16

1951–1952

Joe Coleman Short tenure

3-15-1

1948–1950

Vaughn Corley Steady

Vaughn Corley slid New Mexico State from Regional Program V to Regional Program VI in 3 seasons.

−4.3 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 40% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Hauck’s UNLV run (2010–2014)

10th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Raymond Curfman (1946–1947) · succeeded by Joe Coleman (1951–1952).

−4.3

9-20

1946–1947

Raymond Curfman Short tenure

8-11

1940–1942

Julius Johnston Steady≈

Julius Johnston slid New Mexico State from Regional Program I to Regional Program III in 3 seasons.

−13.7 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 4% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Hackett’s Pittsburgh run (1990–1992)

4th-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Gerald Hines (1936–1939) · succeeded by Raymond Curfman (1946–1947).

−13.7

6-21

1936–1939

Gerald Hines Steady

Gerald Hines held New Mexico State at Regional Program I for 4 seasons.

1st-best New Mexico State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Julius Johnston (1940–1942).

Regional Program I

23-14-1