The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Paul Haynes

Followed Darrell Hazell. Paul Haynes held Kent State at Regional Program IV for 5 seasons.

14–45
2013–2017 · 1 stint
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerKENT STATERegional Programthe building-block levelKent State, 2013: 4-8, Regional Program IV2013Kent State, 2014: 2-9, Regional Program IV2014Kent State, 2015: 3-9, Regional Program IV2015Kent State, 2016: 3-9, Regional Program V2016Kent State, 2017: 2-10, Regional Program V2017-4.7One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Kent State, 5 seasons
−4.7
Regional Program IV → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%60%Kent State2013–2017▼ 30.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Kent State30.4pt#1 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–4 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Frank Solich.

Rivalry record
1–4
20.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
5–9
35.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Akron1–420%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Frank Solich1–4
5 meetings, 2013–2017
’13 W’14 L’15 L’16 L’17 L · blew a 3-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
0–3 0.0%
National Program
0–8 0.0%
Regional Program
9–27 25.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.50
#300 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.17
#68 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2017
Kent Statecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Paul Haynes held Kent State at Regional Program IV for 5 seasons.

8th-best Kent State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-12.3 pts
#157 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+15.5 pts
#48 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Darrell Hazell (2011–2012) · succeeded by Sean Lewis (2018–2022).

Season20132014201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record4–82–93–93–92–10
Postseason
Recruiting rank#122#102#128#126
Style — pass rate
Pass rate61.543.438.231.0
Coordinators
OCBrian RockDon TreadwellDon TreadwellDon Treadwell
DCBrian GeorgeBrian GeorgeBen NeedhamBen Needham / Jeff Burrow
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense110653
Defense48753645
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%57.336.331.629.3
Red-zone pass%70.028.626.024.6
4th-down go%opp. territory29.727.331.227.3
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Brian Rock → Don Treadwell · 2015
11th pct0th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 57.3% → 36.3% (-21.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 48% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brian George → co-Ben Needham · 2016
75th pct36th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Ben Needham → co-Ben Needham / co-Jeff Burrow · 2017
36th pct45th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Brian Winters (2013), Dri Archer (2014)

14–45