Alabama 56-23 Mississippi State (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Alabama · Mississippi State

No. 7 Alabama5-056

No. 16 Mississippi State4-123Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. · Crowd 60,417

No. 7 Alabama routed No. 16 Mississippi State 56-23.

We had Alabama favored. It won.

Next: Alabama lost to Georgia 20-17, Sat Oct 10

Next: Mississippi State lost to LSU 31-0, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

“Miss State was never good” narrative goes live in 3…2…1

Q3 8:28 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Taylor sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumbles (Q1, 13:20). Alabama went from 47% to 66% to win. Fans right then: “Why does SEC tease us showing the replay center but not giving us their audio like the ACC/B1G? So stupid” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.

Pick-six

Alabama · Q1 8:30

FinalAlabama 56-23 Mississippi StateAlabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 13:20FumbleTaylor sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumblesAlabama 47% → 66% (+19)
2Q1 8:30InterceptionTaylor intercepted by Lee at the Mississippi State 30 and returned for a TD, Alabama leads 14-0Alabama 78% → 92% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 13:20FumbleTaylor sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumblesMississippi State 53% → 34% (−19)
2Q1 8:30InterceptionTaylor intercepted by Lee at the Mississippi State 30 and returned for a TD, Alabama leads 14-0Mississippi State 22% → 8% (−14)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 13:43Fans argue Taylor's fumble was a pass as officials review the turnoverWhy does SEC tease us showing the replay center but not giving us their audio like the ACC/B1G? So stupidr/CFB game threadThis is so obviously a fumble I mean come onr/CFB game thread
Q2 10:16Fans argue over upheld fumble call on Hill run as State scoresGenuinely bad callr/CFB game threadHe's clearly down but no way the overturn it lolr/CFB game thread
Q3 8:28Alabama fans celebrate Keelon Russell's Heisman case as Kamario Taylor throws an interceptionQuoted at the top of the page.Best team of the DeBoer era? Many are asking!r/CFB game thread

Alabama’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Alabama -5.5), at 55% for Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Mississippi State or Alabama flair (803 and 2,848); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Alabama’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Alabama scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Mississippi State on 4 of its 13.

Alabama’s drives are teal, Mississippi State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Mississippi State’s side

Mississippi State’s best moment: 34-yd punt (Q2 6:40). It lifted Mississippi State’s win chance by 11 points.

How Mississippi State fans took it: “Currently sitting in the student section still. This blows.” r/CFB game thread

“This is so obviously a fumble I mean come on”

An Alabama fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans peaked in the opening quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Mississippi State fans

lebby“Yeah this one was over the second we lost fluff. Maybe next year Lebby will actually get an o line and Kamario can settle down a bit, this is rough”

now“At least now we don't have all of r/cfb making the very original observation of "how are they allowed to use cowbells" anymore”

glad“Yes! I was glad to see my Braves get revenge against the Phillies. I wish the Dodgers nothing but the worst.”

lot“Anything can happen when we play Bama! Bama can win by a little or Bama can win by a lot”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, back, run, next.

What it cost

Mississippi State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 20% to 14%.

Make the playoff

Alabama · won74% → ▲79%

Mississippi State · lost20% → ▼14%

Win the conference

Alabama · won18% → ▲21%

Mississippi State · lost2% → ▼1%

Win the title

Alabama · won9% → 9%

Mississippi State · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23

Alabama covered −5.5 by 27.5. The total, 79, went over 62.5.

Team totals	Alabama	Mississippi State
Total yards	483	302
Passing	18 of 24, 304 yds	22 of 40, 284 yds
Rushing	37 for 179 yds	30 for 18 yds
First downs	22	21
Third down	6 of 9	7 of 17
Fourth down	0 of 0	2 of 2
Turnovers	2	4
Penalties	10 for 64 yds	4 for 29 yds
Time of possession	34:41	25:19

Alabama leaders

Passing Keelon Russell 16 of 22, 285 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Trae'shawn Brown 14 for 66 yds, 2 TD; EJ Crowell 3 for 49 yds
Receiving Lotzeir Brooks 4 for 96 yds; Rico Scott 4 for 56 yds, 2 TD

Mississippi State leaders

Passing Kamario Taylor 19 of 34, 258 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Kolin Wilson 10 for 27 yds; Xavier Gayten 10 for 10 yds
Receiving Anthony Evans III 12 for 166 yds, 2 TD; Sanfrisco Magee 3 for 51 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Alabama · 4-0

Rated 21st in our preseason ratings, 10th now, up 11 spots.

4 straight wins, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 49-18 vs South Carolina #31 of 668

won by 31 as a 12.5-point favorite

W 50-36 vs Florida State #90 of 668

won by 14 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 45-17 @ KentuckyTop 25 #95 of 668

won by 28 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 48-10 vs East Carolina #76 of 668

won by 38 as a 28.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Mississippi State · 4-0

Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 63rd now, up 69 spots.

4 straight wins, including a 7-point win over South Carolina as a 3-point underdog.

W 31-24 vs MissouriTop 25 #39 of 668

won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 41-34 @ South Carolina #22 of 668

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

W 38-13 @ Minnesota #40 of 668

won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 62-13 vs UL Monroe #162 of 668

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Week by week

Mississippi State

Wk 1Wvs UL Monroe62-13
Wk 2Wat Minnesota38-13
Wk 3Wat South Carolina41-34
Wk 4Wvs Missouri31-24

Alabama

Wk 1Wvs East Carolina48-10
Wk 2Wat Kentucky45-17
Wk 3Wvs Florida State50-36
Wk 4Wvs South Carolina49-18

Power rating by week

Alabama is rated 7.9 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Alabama’s success rate against Mississippi State, 65 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Alabama’s success rate against Mississippi State’s defense
Alabama offense, 78th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 13th
Alabama’s passing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
Alabama offense, 76th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 24th
Mississippi State’s explosive plays against Alabama’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 51st percentile · Alabama defense, 24th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

AlabamaMississippi State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Alabama leads the series 86-17-3

106 meetings since 1902 · Alabama has won the last 16

2023Alabama 40-17
2022Alabama 30-6
2021Alabama 49-9
2020Alabama 41-0
2019Alabama 38-7

Each line is Mississippi State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Mississippi State fans are in a better mood than Alabama fans (72nd vs 51st among FBS fanbases), even with Alabama favored.

Alabama favored by 5.5 · Total 62.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama by 5.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Alabama.

The total rose 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Mississippi State is worth +3.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.

51% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (26-25 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 74 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Alabama 31, Mississippi State 24Nov 11, 2017

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Mississippi State3rd2-0
Alabama4th2-0

Full SEC standings

No. 7 Alabama routs No. 16 Mississippi State 56-23