CFB Zeitgeist
DRDylan Raiola

Dylan Raiola

Dylan Raiola left a starting job and Nebraska's throne for a better shot at Oregon. Then the Ducks' NFL-bound starter shocked everyone and came back -- and now football's most famous transfer is redshirting.

QB · Nebraska · Cl 2 · #15

CFB Zeitgeist 61transferred_college

Dylan Raiola left a starting job and Nebraska's throne for a better shot at Oregon. Then the Ducks' NFL-bound starter shocked everyone and came back -- and now football's most famous transfer is redshirting.

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →
Hype = tape +14aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 85th percentile of QBs; the tape says 71st — the discourse is fair.
Aura — fan perception85th pctl
Production — on-field71st pctl
n=51 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Read that again: the highest-ranked recruit Nebraska ever signed -- son of a 14-year NFL center, the face of Matt Rhule's rebuild -- walked away from 22 career starts and won't take a meaningful snap in 2026. The exits weren't only his: his uncle was let go from Nebraska's staff and his brother decommitted, so the family's Lincoln chapter closed all at once.

What he's really betting on is 2027. Dante Moore's surprise return turned the Oregon move into the same apprenticeship Moore once served behind Dillon Gabriel -- a year to learn the system before the keys are his. Before the broken leg ended his Nebraska season, Raiola was completing 72%. The arm was never the question. The question is patience: whether a five-star raised to be The Guy can spend a year as the understudy -- and whether the gamble reads as brilliant or premature when 2027 finally comes.

PLAY STYLE

Raiola looks the part to an almost cartoonish degree -- a broad, NFL-built frame, a compact over-the-top release, the pre-snap command that drew Patrick Mahomes comparisons before a college snap. The tape, what there is of it, backs the projection: 86th-percentile accuracy and an 18-to-6 touchdown-to-interception line before a broken leg ended his Nebraska season at nine games. The honest tell is the sack rate -- bottom-ten percent -- he holds the ball hunting the throw, for better and worse, the habit a young quarterback either refines into patience or pays for. The catch for 2026 is that there won't be new tape: he's redshirting behind Dante Moore, developing in practice, not on Saturdays. This is a projection year, banking reps for the 2027 audition the whole bet is built around.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★★
#21 national
CFB
College
Nebraska
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-Big Ten

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Matt Rhule
Nebraska
2025
Matt Rhule
Nebraska

Played his entire career under Matt Rhule.

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Oregon

2025Nebraska
2026Oregon

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2024Nebraska7-6HC: Matt Rhule · Balanced
2025Nebraska7-6HC: Matt Rhule · Run-leaning

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

61Solid starter
8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: completion % (99th). Concern: rush yards (3rd).

Completion %#2 / 183 · 99th pct
72.4%pass
Yards / att#38 / 183 · 78th pct
8.0pass
Pass TDs#49 / 183 · 72nd pct
18pass
Interceptions#70 / 183 · 56th pct
6pass
Pass yards#91 / 183 · 51st pct
2000pass
Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct
2fumb
Rush TDs#150 / 183 · 9th pct
0rush
Rush yards#178 / 183 · 3rd pct
-87rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Awards

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-Big Ten

Career stats

Passing

Season-by-season quarterback passing line in a familiar scoreboard layout.

Season Team CMPATTCMP%YDSY/ATDINTRATELNGSACK
2025 NebraskaFinal snapshot 18125072.4%2,0008.0186158.6----
2024 NebraskaFinal snapshot 27440967.0%2,8066.91311129.7----
Career 2 loaded seasonsCareer row reflects the stat seasons currently loaded in this database. 45565969.0%4,8067.33117140.7----

Rushing

Ground contribution that rounds out the quarterback profile.

Season Team CARYDSAVGTDLNG
2025 NebraskaFinal snapshot 46-87-1.90--
2024 NebraskaFinal snapshot 50-65-1.30--
Career 2 loaded seasonsCareer row reflects the stat seasons currently loaded in this database. 96-152-1.60--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 9 · 2025

W 28–21

vs Northwestern

141 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT  ·  QBR 54.5  ·  -1 rush yds (3 car)

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 7 at home.

Game log

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCMP/ATTYDSTDINTYPAQBRNote
Wk 1W 20-17@ Cincinnati33/42243205.877.8
Wk 2W 68-0vs Akron24/313644011.792.1Season-high 364 yds
Wk 3W 59-7vs Houston Christian15/212222010.680.1
Wk 4L 27-30vs Michigan30/41308317.564.63 TD passes
Wk 6W 38-27vs Michigan State16/24194118.118.9
Wk 7W 34-31@ Maryland20/29260439.079.34 TD passes · 3 INTs — rough day
Wk 8L 6-24@ Minnesota17/25177007.139.4
Wk 9W 28-21vs Northwestern16/22141116.454.5
Wk 10L 17-21vs USC10/1591106.182.4
Total181/25020001868.065.5

How he plays

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

61Solid starter
8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: completion % (99th). Concern: rush yards (3rd).

Completion %#2 / 183 · 99th pct
72.4%pass
Yards / att#38 / 183 · 78th pct
8.0pass
Pass TDs#49 / 183 · 72nd pct
18pass
Interceptions#70 / 183 · 56th pct
6pass
Pass yards#91 / 183 · 51st pct
2000pass
Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct
2fumb
Rush TDs#150 / 183 · 9th pct
0rush
Rush yards#178 / 183 · 3rd pct
-87rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

PLAY STYLE

Raiola looks the part to an almost cartoonish degree -- a broad, NFL-built frame, a compact over-the-top release, the pre-snap command that drew Patrick Mahomes comparisons before a college snap. The tape, what there is of it, backs the projection: 86th-percentile accuracy and an 18-to-6 touchdown-to-interception line before a broken leg ended his Nebraska season at nine games. The honest tell is the sack rate -- bottom-ten percent -- he holds the ball hunting the throw, for better and worse, the habit a young quarterback either refines into patience or pays for. The catch for 2026 is that there won't be new tape: he's redshirting behind Dante Moore, developing in practice, not on Saturdays. This is a projection year, banking reps for the 2027 audition the whole bet is built around.

Perception vs tape

Dylan Raiola left a starting job and Nebraska's throne for a better shot at Oregon. Then the Ducks' NFL-bound starter shocked everyone and came back — and now football's most famous transfer is redshirting.

Read that again: the highest-ranked recruit Nebraska ever signed — son of a 14-year NFL center, the face of Matt Rhule's rebuild — walked away from 22 career starts and won't take a meaningful snap in 2026. The exits weren't only his: his uncle was let go from Nebraska's staff and his brother decommitted, so the family's Lincoln chapter closed all at once.

What he's really betting on is 2027. Dante Moore's surprise return turned the Oregon move into the same apprenticeship Moore once served behind Dillon Gabriel — a year to learn the system before the keys are his. Before the broken leg ended his Nebraska season, Raiola was completing 72%. The arm was never the question. The question is patience: whether a five-star raised to be The Guy can spend a year as the understudy — and whether the gamble reads as brilliant or premature when 2027 finally comes.

How he plays

Raiola looks the part to an almost cartoonish degree — a broad, NFL-built frame, a compact over-the-top release, the pre-snap command that drew Patrick Mahomes comparisons before a college snap. The tape, what there is of it, backs the projection: 86th-percentile accuracy and an 18-to-6 touchdown-to-interception line before a broken leg ended his Nebraska season at nine games. The honest tell is the sack rate — bottom-ten percent — he holds the ball hunting the throw, for better and worse, the habit a young quarterback either refines into patience or pays for. The catch for 2026 is that there won't be new tape: he's redshirting behind Dante Moore, developing in practice, not on Saturdays. This is a projection year, banking reps for the 2027 audition the whole bet is built around.

2026 outlook · as of 2026-06-12

DNA match

Player DNA

The Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.

QB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Will Levis’s 2022 season.

Will Levis

58%match

Kentucky · 2022

All-SECNFL Rd 2 · Pk 2
#2

Joey Labas

Central Michigan · 2025

57%
#3

Ethan Grunkemeyer

Penn State · 2025

57%
#4

JT Daniels

Georgia · 2021

All-SEC
55%
#5

Skylar John Thompson

Kansas State · 2021

55%

Differs from Will on

Recruiting rating (higher)
Completion % (higher)
Class year (lower)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Henry Colombi’s path through Marshall.

Henry Colombi

82%match

Marshall · 2022

#2

Aidan O'Connell

Purdue · 2022

All-Big TenNFL Rd 4
78%
#3

Tommy DeVito

Illinois · 2022

70%
#4

Miller Moss

Louisville · 2025

All-Big Ten
70%
#5

Gunner Stockton

Georgia · 2025

70%

Matches Henry on

Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to JT Daniels's sophomore season at Georgia (2021).

JT Daniels

56%match

Georgia · 2021

All-SEC
#2

Skylar John Thompson

Kansas State · 2021

53%
#3

Jake Bentley

South Alabama · 2021

51%
#4

Spencer Rattler

Oklahoma · 2021

All-Big 12NFL Rd 5
48%
#5

Alessio Milivojevic

Michigan State · 2025

46%

Matches JT on

Yards / attempt
Height

Differs from JT on

Class year (lower)
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Rush usage (higher)

Peer comparator

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Dylan RaiolaNebraskaOwen McCownUTSA· 79% simDarian MensahDuke· 75% simMicah AlejadoHawai'i· 74% sim
Completion %
99
Raiola
88
McCown
83
Mensah
80
Alejado
Yards / att
78
Raiola
57
McCown
75
Mensah
52
Alejado
Pass TDs
72
Raiola
96
McCown
99
Mensah
85
Alejado
Interceptions
56
Raiola
44
McCown
56
Mensah
22
Alejado
Pass yards
51
Raiola
80
McCown
99
Mensah
84
Alejado
Fumbles lost
38
Raiola
18
McCown
2
Mensah
38
Alejado
Rush TDs
9
Raiola
26
McCown
26
Mensah
26
Alejado
Rush yards
3
Raiola
27
McCown
11
Mensah
45
Alejado

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Development

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2024–2025
2,8062024
2,0002025

-29%

Sharp dropoff (-29%) — career inflection point.