CFB Zeitgeist Score
72
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 81st percentile.
Katin Houser
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
3,300 PASS YDS · 19 PASS TD · 193 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Illinois
2025East Carolina
2026Illinois
QB · EAST CAROLINA · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Katin Houser
- 4
- #4
- 6-3 | 225 lb
- Anaheim, CA
Heisman Heat
#1322
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025+164900%
Up 164900% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9170 | No. 215 recruit | HighSchool | Michigan State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | East Carolina -> Illinois | 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Michigan State -> East Carolina | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 3300 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (3300).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Michigan State
Composite
0.9170
#215 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Katin Houser
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
83
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=3
- Rivals · n=6
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Katin Houser
Obsession score 4
Rival mentions 6
Weeks on radar 2
Peak moment Week 0 · 3 mentions
Grudging respect 0% Neutral 100% Mockery 0%
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 12g
3,300Pass yards
19Pass TDs
6INT
Per game
275Pass yards
2Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
3,575Pass yards
21Pass TDs
6INT
✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,300.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 3,300): needs 700/game over remaining 1.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 19): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 19): needs 11/game over remaining 1.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 19): needs 16/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Katin Houser's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For East Carolina, he has 3,300 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes, but he also adds 193 rushing yards and 9 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
269 94th
ATT
408 95th
CMP%
65.9% 70th
Y/A
8.1 78th
Passing Production
YDS
3,300 95th
TD
19 89th
INT
6 28th
Rushing
CAR
85 83rd
YDS
193 79th
YPC
2.3 42nd
TD
9 95th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 17-24@ NC State | 30/44 | 366 | 1 | 0 | 8.3 | 55.8 | Season-high 366 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 56-3vs Campbell | 25/35 | 314 | 2 | 0 | 9.0 | 85.9 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 3 | W 38-0@ Coastal Carolina | 28/37 | 293 | 2 | 1 | 7.9 | 82.9 | |
| Wk 4 | L 13-34vs BYU | 25/42 | 285 | 0 | 2 | 6.8 | 38.9 | |
| Wk 5 | W 28-6vs Army | 15/22 | 251 | 2 | 1 | 11.4 | 50.6 | |
| Wk 7 | L 19-26@ Tulane | 19/30 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 62.3 | |
| Wk 8 | W 41-27vs Tulsa | 21/38 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 | 52.0 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 10 | W 45-14@ Temple | 19/24 | 256 | 2 | 1 | 10.7 | 85.6 | |
| Wk 11 | W 48-22vs Charlotte | 26/41 | 224 | 2 | 0 | 5.5 | 42.7 | |
| Wk 12 | W 31-27vs Memphis | 23/34 | 332 | 1 | 0 | 9.8 | 75.1 | |
| Wk 13 | L 24-58@ UTSA | 18/32 | 241 | 2 | 1 | 7.5 | 14.3 | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-3@ Florida Atlantic | 20/29 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 8.9 | 92.9 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Total | 269/408 | 3300 | 19 | 6 | 8.3 | 61.6 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Michigan State5-7HC: Mel Tucker · Balanced
2023Michigan State4-8HC: Mel Tucker · Balanced
2025East Carolina9-4HC: Blake Harrell · Run-leaning, fast tempo
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | East Carolina | 269 | 408 | 65.9% | 3,300 | 8.1 | 19 | 6 | 146.3 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Michigan State | 113 | 193 | 58.5% | 1,098 | 5.7 | 6 | 5 | 111.4 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Michigan State | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 58.4 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 383 | 603 | 63.5% | 4,400 | 7.3 | 25 | 11 | 134.8 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | East Carolina | 85 | 193 | 2.3 | 9 | -- |
| 2023 | Michigan State | 48 | -6 | -0.1 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Michigan State | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 134 | 200 | 1.5 | 11 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 3,300 | #21/382 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 19 | #44/407 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 269 | #25/383 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 65.9% | #116/383 | 70th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 8.1 | #86/382 | 78th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 193 | #88/408 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.36 | #37/200 | 82nd pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 383 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 50.1% | #82/428 | 81st pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 408 | #21/407 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 6 | #294/407 | 28th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 85 | #72/408 | 83rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 14 | #232/391 | 41st pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 9 | #23/408 | 95th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.3 | #236/407 | 42nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 94.4% | #29/428 | 93rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 64.8% | #80/428 | 82nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 59.3% | #106/428 | 75th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 50.9% | #70/428 | 84th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 44.8% | #76/428 | 82nd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 44.7% | #70/428 | 84th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 12.9% | #127/428 | 71st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.29 | #43/140 | 70th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 67 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 4 | #237/258 | 9th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 284 | 1.5 | 8.4 | 0.5 |
| Road6g | 266 | 1.7 | 8.2 | 0.5 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 278 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 0.4 |
| Losses4g | 268 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 0.8 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 282 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 268 | 1.8 | 8.4 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
72Solid starter
Elite: pass yards (88th). Strength: rush tds (86th). Concern: fumbles lost (8th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds49%of completions
76 comp5.2 yds avg3 TD
Middle
10–19 yds33%of completions
51 comp13.7 yds avg1 TD
Deep
20+ yds18%of completions
28 comp34.1 yds avg6 TD
Overall 64.3% completion on 241 attempts · 28 deep completions averaging 34.1 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Reads as a mid-tier profile across the board..
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.36Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.29Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Katin HouserEast CarolinaBear BachmeierBYU· 88% simLuke AltmyerIllinois· 86% simByrum BrownSouth Florida· 83% sim
Pass yards
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Completion %
Pass TDs
Rush yards
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Seth Henigan’s 2022 season.
Seth Henigan
73%match
#2
Holton Ahlers
72%
#3
Carson Beck
All-SECNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1
72%
#4
Austin Reed
All-Conference USA
71%
#5
Tyler Johnston III
67%
Matches Seth on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Differs from Seth on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Rush usage (lower)
Weight (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Gunnar Watson’s path through Troy.
Gunnar Watson
97%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Aidan Chiles
All-Big Ten
87%
#3
Gerry Bohannon
86%
#4
Michael Kern
86%
#5
Anthony Brown
86%
Matches Gunnar on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Ben Wooldridge's senior season at Louisiana (2024).
Ben Wooldridge
73%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Cade Klubnik
All-ACCNFL Rd 4
65%
#3
Walker Eget
62%
#4
Sawyer Robertson
62%
#5
Carson Beck
All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1
61%
Matches Ben on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Yards / attempt
Differs from Ben on
TD rate (lower)
Weight (higher)
INT rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Blake Harrell
Pass share
44.5%
440 pass / 548 run
Plays / game
76.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.7%
343 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning, fast tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2023
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2025era →
Blake Harrell
East Carolina
Coaching transition mid-career: Mike Houston → Blake Harrell. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownAnaheim, CA
Height6'3"
Weight225 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey4
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamEast Carolina
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | East Carolina | QB4 | #1322 | #1401 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2023 | Michigan State | QB4 | #737 | #984 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Michigan State | QB4 | #1320 | #1297 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | East Carolina | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 4 | 6-3 | 225 lb | Anaheim, CA |
| 2024 | East Carolina | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 4 | 6-3 | 225 lb | Anaheim, CA |
| 2023 | Michigan State | Big Ten | QB | 4 | No. 4 | 6-3 | 225 lb | Anaheim, CA |
| 2022 | Michigan State | Big Ten | QB | 4 | No. 4 | 6-3 | 225 lb | Anaheim, CA |