CFB Zeitgeist Score
51
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 83rd percentile.
Dylan Lonergan
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
2,025 PASS YDS · 12 PASS TD · -37 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Rutgers
2025Boston College
2026Rutgers
QB · BOSTON COLLEGE · ACC
Dylan Lonergan
- 2
- #9
- 6-2 | 211 lb
- Snellville, GA
Heisman Heat
#205
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2023
Alabama · QB
—
2024
Alabama · QB
—
★
2025
Boston College · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025+16775%
Up 16775% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.9359 | No. 154 recruit | HighSchool | Alabama |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boston College -> Rutgers | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Alabama -> Boston College | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (2025).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Alabama
Composite
0.9359
#154 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Dylan Lonergan
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=8
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Dylan Lonergan
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Completion %
0.7%
pct
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts
Best by a Boston College QB since Emmett Morehead 2022.
National rank #16 of 72
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts 79th
Why it matters
#16 of 72 P4 + Notre Dame QBs at 0.7% completion rate (284 attempts).
Vs cohort
This player 0.7% (79th)
HIGH · n=284 cohort 72
- Also strong
- TD : INT ratio#34 / 72
- Yards per attempt#48 / 72
- Passing yards (total)#50 / 72
Signature Moment
Week 2 at Michigan State — 390 completion_pct
Result L 40-42
The week the volume broke through — put up 390 yds at Michigan State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 10g
2,025Pass yards
12Pass TDs
5INT
Per game
202.5Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
2,632Pass yards
16Pass TDs
6INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 2,025): needs 325/game over remaining 3.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 2,025): needs 658.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 4.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 6/game over remaining 3.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 12): needs 7.7/game over remaining 3.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Dylan Lonergan already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Efficient | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
190 79th
ATT
284 78th
CMP%
66.9% 75th
Y/A
7.1 57th
Passing Production
YDS
2,025 77th
TD
12 79th
INT
5 32nd
Rushing
CAR
36 62nd
YDS
-37 4th
YPC
-1.0 12th
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 66-10vs Fordham | 26/34 | 268 | 4 | 0 | 7.9 | 55.3 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | L 40-42@ Michigan State | 34/45 | 390 | 4 | 0 | 8.7 | 88.9 | Season-high 390 yds |
| Wk 3 | L 20-30@ Stanford | 30/44 | 333 | 1 | 1 | 7.6 | 51.4 | |
| Wk 5 | L 24-28vs California | 21/37 | 197 | 0 | 2 | 5.3 | 34.5 | |
| Wk 6 | L 7-48@ Pittsburgh | 9/18 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 4.9 | 21.6 | |
| Wk 7 | L 10-41vs Clemson | 12/19 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | 61.1 | |
| Wk 10 | L 10-25vs Notre Dame | 5/8 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 3.6 | 32.1 | |
| Wk 11 | L 13-45vs SMU | 25/37 | 232 | 1 | 1 | 6.3 | 42.6 | |
| Wk 12 | L 34-36vs Georgia Tech | 26/40 | 362 | 2 | 0 | 9.1 | 77.4 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 14 | W 34-12@ Syracuse | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | 77.9 | |
| Total | 190/284 | 2025 | 12 | 5 | 6.4 | 54.3 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Alabama12-2HC: Nick Saban · Run-heavy
2024Alabama9-4HC: Kalen DeBoer · Run-leaning
2025Boston College2-10HC: Bill O'Brien · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boston College | 190 | 284 | 66.9% | 2,025 | 7.1 | 12 | 5 | 137.2 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Alabama | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | 115.5 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Alabama | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 150.4 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 197 | 292 | 67.5% | 2,060 | 7.1 | 12 | 5 | 136.9 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boston College | 36 | -37 | -1.0 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Alabama | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Alabama | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 38 | -16 | -0.4 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 2,025 | #90/382 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 12 | #88/407 | 79th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 190 | #80/383 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 66.9% | #95/383 | 75th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 7.1 | #165/382 | 57th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -37 | #391/408 | 4th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.23 | #127/200 | 37th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 248 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 43.9% | #129/428 | 70th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 284 | #90/407 | 78th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 5 | #276/407 | 32nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 36 | #158/408 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 16 | #207/391 | 47th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -1.0 | #358/407 | 12th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 69.4% | #142/428 | 67th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 58.3% | #114/428 | 74th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 55.6% | #127/428 | 71st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 45.5% | #114/428 | 74th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 37.9% | #119/428 | 72nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 37.8% | #123/428 | 71st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 7.6% | #207/428 | 52nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 3 | #213/258 | 18th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 201 | 1.2 | 6.4 | 0.7 |
| Road4g | 205 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 138 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses8g | 219 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 0.6 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 232 | 1.5 | 6.8 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 158 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
51Mid-pack
Elite: completion % (83rd). Concern: rush yards (9th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds58%of completions
65 comp5.5 yds avg1 TD
Middle
10–19 yds28%of completions
32 comp13.8 yds avg2 TD
Deep
20+ yds14%of completions
16 comp29.2 yds avg1 TD
Overall 64.2% completion on 176 attempts · 16 deep completions averaging 29.2 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.23Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Dylan LonerganBoston CollegeOwen McCownUTSA· 78% simMiller MossLouisville· 74% simTy SimpsonAlabama· 73% sim
Completion %
Interceptions
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Yards / att
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Surgeon
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Miller Moss’s 2024 season.
Miller Moss
80%match
All-Big Ten
#2
Kedon Slovis
75%
#3
Garrett Nussmeier
All-SECNFL Rd 7
73%
#4
Miller Moss
73%
#5
Jarret Doege
72%
Matches Miller on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Completion %
Rush usage
Differs from Miller on
Class year (lower)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Henry Colombi’s path through Marshall.
Henry Colombi
88%match
#2
Jarret Doege
81%
#3
Tommy DeVito
80%
#4
Zac Thomas
All-Sun Belt
79%
#5
Miller Moss
All-Big Ten
78%
Matches Henry on
Yards per attempt
Completion %
Height
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Conner Harrell's junior season at Charlotte (2025).
Conner Harrell
62%match
#2
Jack Layne
61%
#3
Tommy DeVito
58%
#4
Payton Thorne
58%
#5
Emory Jones
57%
Matches Conner on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Differs from Conner on
Class year (lower)
Rush yards / carry (lower)
Recruiting rating (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bill O'Brien
Pass share
54.8%
454 pass / 374 run
Plays / game
69.0
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
10.9%
349 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Jeff Hafley
Boston College
2024era →
Bill O'Brien
Boston College
2025
Bill O'Brien
Boston College
Coaching transition mid-career: Jeff Hafley → Bill O'Brien. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSnellville, GA
Height6'2"
Weight211 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey9
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBoston College
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-ACC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-ACC | all_conference | Boston College | ACC | -- |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boston College | ACC | QB | 2 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 211 lb | Snellville, GA |
| 2024 | Alabama | SEC | QB | 2 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 211 lb | Snellville, GA |
| 2023 | Alabama | SEC | QB | 2 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 211 lb | Snellville, GA |