CFB Zeitgeist Score
51
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 82nd percentile.
Aidan Chiles
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,392 PASS YDS · 10 PASS TD · 227 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Northwestern
2025Michigan State
2026Northwestern
QB · MICHIGAN STATE · BIG TEN
Aidan Chiles
- 3
- #2
- 6-3 | 225 lb
- Downey, CA
Heisman Heat
#1024
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
2 seasons on the ladder
2023
Oregon State · QB
—
★
2025
Michigan State · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025+350%
Up 350% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.9323 | No. 168 recruit | HighSchool | Oregon State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Michigan State -> Northwestern | 4-star | 0.9000 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Oregon State -> Michigan State | 4-star | 0.9600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (1392).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Oregon State
Composite
0.9323
#168 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Aidan Chiles
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=6
- Rivals · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Aidan Chiles
Only 1 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
QB rushing weighted-EPA
+0.400
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 50 carries
National rank #6 of 46
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 50 carries 89th
Why it matters
#6 of 46 P4 + Notre Dame QBs among scrambling QBs by rushing weighted-EPA — +0.400 EPA per run on 52 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.400 (89th)
MODERATE · n=52 cohort 46
- Also strong
- TD : INT ratio#17 / 72
- Completion %#44 / 72
- Yards per attempt#55 / 72
Signature Moment
Week 3 vs Youngstown State — 76 ypc
Result W 41-24
The week the volume broke through — put up 76 yds vs Youngstown State.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 8g
1,392Pass yards
10Pass TDs
3INT
Per game
174Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
2,262Pass yards
16Pass TDs
5INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,392): needs 321.6/game over remaining 5.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,392): needs 521.6/game over remaining 5.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 10): needs 3/game over remaining 5.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 10): needs 4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 10): needs 5/game over remaining 5.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Aidan Chiles's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Michigan State, he has 1,392 passing yards and 10 touchdown passes, but he also adds 227 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
128 70th
ATT
203 70th
CMP%
63.1% 57th
Y/A
6.9 52nd
Passing Production
YDS
1,392 69th
TD
10 74th
INT
3 43rd
Rushing
CAR
81 81st
YDS
227 81st
YPC
2.8 51st
TD
6 88th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 8 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 23-6vs Western Michigan | 17/23 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 | 50.9 | |
| Wk 2 | W 42-40vs Boston College | 19/29 | 231 | 4 | 0 | 8.0 | 86.8 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 41-24vs Youngstown State | 22/29 | 270 | 1 | 1 | 9.3 | 76.6 | Season-high 270 yds |
| Wk 4 | L 31-45@ USC | 12/21 | 212 | 3 | 0 | 10.1 | — | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 6 | L 27-38@ Nebraska | 9/23 | 85 | 0 | 2 | 3.7 | 65.6 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-38vs UCLA | 8/17 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3.9 | 25.6 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-38@ Indiana | 27/33 | 243 | 1 | 0 | 7.4 | 94.8 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-31vs Michigan | 14/28 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 4.6 | 26.8 | |
| Total | 128/203 | 1392 | 10 | 3 | 6.7 | 61.0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Oregon State8-5HC: Jonathan Smith · Run-leaning
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 128 | 203 | 63.1% | 1,392 | 6.9 | 10 | 3 | 134.0 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Oregon State | 24 | 35 | 68.6% | 309 | 8.8 | 4 | 0 | 180.4 | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 152 | 238 | 63.9% | 1,701 | 7.1 | 14 | 3 | 140.8 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 81 | 227 | 2.8 | 6 | -- |
| 2023 | Oregon State | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 98 | 306 | 3.1 | 9 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,392 | #121/382 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 10 | #105/407 | 74th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 128 | #117/383 | 70th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 63.1% | #167/383 | 57th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.9 | #186/382 | 52nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 227 | #78/408 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.36 | #37/200 | 82nd pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 189 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 51.9% | #62/428 | 86th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 203 | #122/407 | 70th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 3 | #234/407 | 43rd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 81 | #79/408 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 64 | #14/391 | 97th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #48/408 | 88th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.8 | #202/407 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 82.7% | #108/428 | 75th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 71.7% | #30/428 | 93rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 65.7% | #72/428 | 83rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 48.9% | #90/428 | 79th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 45.3% | #68/428 | 84th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 42.9% | #87/428 | 80th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 21.5% | #57/428 | 87th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.40 | #8/140 | 95th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 52 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 3 | #213/258 | 18th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 8 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 170 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 0.2 |
| Road3g | 180 | 1.3 | 7.1 | 0.7 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 219 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 0.3 |
| Losses5g | 147 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 0.4 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 170 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 186 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
51Mid-pack
Elite: interceptions (82nd). Concern: fumbles lost (18th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds51%of completions
50 comp5.8 yds avg2 TD
Middle
10–19 yds34%of completions
34 comp13.5 yds avg2 TD
Deep
20+ yds15%of completions
15 comp30.7 yds avg4 TD
Overall 60.0% completion on 165 attempts · 15 deep completions averaging 30.7 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Reads as a mid-tier profile across the board..
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.36Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.4Elite (≥p90) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Aidan ChilesMichigan StateAvery JohnsonKansas State· 74% simBryson BarnesUtah State· 74% simBear BachmeierBYU· 73% sim
Interceptions
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Completion %
Yards / att
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ben Wooldridge’s 2024 season.
Ben Wooldridge
69%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Anthony Brown
68%
#3
Ben Gulbranson
68%
#4
Hudson Card
67%
#5
Brendan Sorsby
67%
Matches Ben on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Yards / attempt
Differs from Ben on
Rush usage (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Weight (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Gunnar Watson’s path through Troy.
Gunnar Watson
92%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Kedon Slovis
90%
#3
Gerry Bohannon
89%
#4
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
88%
#5
Katin Houser
87%
Matches Gunnar on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Brendan Sorsby's junior season at Cincinnati (2024).
Brendan Sorsby
67%match
All-Big 12
#2
Conner Harrell
65%
#3
Billy Edwards
63%
#4
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
62%
#5
Garrett Shrader
62%
Matches Brendan on
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Brendan on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Weight (lower)
Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jonathan Smith
Pass share
49.7%
378 pass / 382 run
Plays / game
63.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.2%
303 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2025era →
Jonathan Smith
Michigan State
Coaching transition mid-career: Mel Tucker → Jonathan Smith. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownDowney, CA
Height6'3"
Weight225 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey2
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Big Ten
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Big Ten | -- |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan State | QB3 | #1024 | #1018 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Oregon State | QB3 | #71 | #61 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-3 | 225 lb | Downey, CA |
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-3 | 225 lb | Downey, CA |
| 2023 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | QB | 3 | No. 2 | 6-3 | 225 lb | Downey, CA |