Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-18vs South Dakota State | 14/24 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 11.4 | — | Season-high 273 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 41-7vs Colorado | 17/22 | 241 | 3 | 0 | 11.0 | 84.1 | 3 TD passes |
| Total | 31/46 | 514 | 4 | 0 | 11.2 | 84.1 |
#2
Aidan Chiles
New school, new number, same question — and Aidan Chiles's early answer at Northwestern is No.153 4★, national recruit.
6′4″ · 225 lb · Long Beach, CA · Downey
CFB Index 44 · #83 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceWatch-list name (model)Transferred Michigan State → Northwestern for 2026
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
514
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
2 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 241 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 rush yds, vs Colorado
The play that turned itSwung Michigan State from 19% to 63% to win.UCLA at Michigan State · 38-13
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Senior quarterback for Northwestern. 2026: 2 games with a box-score line.
- Signed as a 4-star recruit to Oregon State in 2023.
- Transferred from Michigan State to Northwestern in 2026.
- Aidan Chiles named Northwestern starter (Aug 24) Reported
Aura™ · Him Watch
Underrated
-24aura tax
Fans rank this player in the 53rd percentile of QBs; the tape says
78th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=68
— the tape outruns the hype.Aura — fan perception53rd pctl
Production — on-field78th pctl
n=68 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = our passing-value metric (wEPA)
Buzz vs Tape
Attention percentile: 54th · Production percentile: 78th
His production sits in the 78th percentile among qualified QBs this season, well ahead of 54th-percentile attention — a gap of 24 points between tape and volume.
54thattention percentile · vs QBs
78thproduction percentile · vs QBs
Also worth knowing:
In Their Words
163 windows · 2026 fan posts
aidan×257.1dakota×53.9northwestern×50.2starting×12.9michigan×10.2south×13.0
“Chip Kelly and Aidan Chiles are my new dads, and Northwestern’s making the playoff”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Aidan Chiles
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-09-22
Aidan Chiles arrives at Northwestern with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
514PASS YDS4PASS TD20RUSH YDS
4★ · NATIONAL RECRUIT
No.153
recruiting national rank
Read the story so far
AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-09-22
His career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
The week the volume broke through — put up 76 yds vs Youngstown State.Youngstown State · W 41-242025
20239 games
- Signed with Oregon State4-star out of Downey
202412 games
- Entered the portal
20258 games
- All-Big Ten
2026
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
- Entered the portal
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Badges
- Program Benchmark
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
1 coach2023–2026
Northwestern
Played his entire career under David Braun.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Northwestern
2025Michigan State
2026Northwestern
Career stats
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Northwestern | 31 | 46 | 67.4% | 514 | 11.2 | 4 | 0 | 189.9 | 65 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Michigan State | 128 | 203 | 63.1% | 1,392 | 6.9 | 10 | 3 | 134.0 | 39 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Michigan State | 192 | 324 | 59.3% | 2,415 | 7.5 | 13 | 12 | 127.7 | 59 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Oregon State | 24 | 35 | 68.6% | 309 | 8.8 | 4 | 0 | 180.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 375 | 608 | 61.7% | 4,630 | 7.6 | 31 | 15 | 137.5 | 52 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Northwestern | 17 | 20 | 1.2 | 3 | -- |
| 2025 | Michigan State | 81 | 227 | 2.8 | 6 | -- |
| 2024 | Michigan State | 96 | 234 | 2.4 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Oregon State | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 211 | 560 | 2.7 | 15 | -- |
Game log
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 34–18
273 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · 18 rush yds (8 car) · 1 TD
With J. Himon II — 87 rush yds (4 car) · 1 TD · G. Wilde — 3 rec · 104 yds
Signature plays
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.97(12:25) #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep middle to #17 G.Wilde caught at SDSU46, for 71 yards to the SDSU11 (#28 C.Van Tol), 1ST DOWN
- Week 3 · Colorado · 3&16 · Q2 · EPA +3.80(03:32) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep left to #17 G.Wilde caught at CU37, for 20 yards to the CU37, out of bounds at CU37, 1ST DOWN
- Week 3 · Colorado · 3&6 · Q3 · EPA -3.64(11:54) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU50, for 11 yards to the CU34 fumbled by #5 C.Komolafe at CU42 forced by #13 J.Stokes Jr. recovered by CU #4 N.Mitchell at CU34, End Of Play
- Week 3 · Colorado · 3&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.63(09:04) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #10 R.Ahumaraeze caught at CU44, for 24 yards to the CU36 (#20 C.Thomas), 1ST DOWN
- Week 3 · Colorado · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +2.94(08:01) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #6 J.Himon II caught at CU10, for 18 yards to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:59, 1ST DOWN #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 3&8 · Q2 · EPA +2.91(08:56) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU49, for 25 yards to the SDSU23 (#21 M.Green), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 3&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.85(04:36) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at SDSU35, for 17 yards to the SDSU29 (#28 C.Van Tol; #21 M.Green), 1ST DOWN
- Week 1 · South Dakota State · 3&6 · Q4 · EPA +2.84(06:51) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU48, for 17 yards to the NU50 (#28 C.Van Tol), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SDSU Holding declined
- Week 3 · Colorado · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA -2.75(04:42) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NU40 (#35 T.Martinez)
- Week 3 · Colorado · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.70(06:27) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #6 J.Himon II caught at CU10, for 25 yards to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:27, 1ST DOWN #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)
2026 snapshot
Since week 1: +241 passing yards, +3 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Oregon State8-5HC: Jonathan Smith · Run-leaning
2024Michigan State5-7HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced, slow tempo
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
2026Northwestern2-0HC: David Braun · Run-heavy, slow tempo
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
High confidence
Elite: yards / att (98th percentile). Strength: rush tds (95th percentile). Concern: pass yards (2nd percentile).
Box-score rates (7)
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Passer rating
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 46 dropbacks65Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
53.1%94th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -5.6% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
10.00100th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -1.5 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
7.0%27th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.5% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (3 of 49 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits & context
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 257 YDS/g, 2.0 TD/g, 11.2 YPA, 0.0 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
David Braun
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Awards
Player standing · 2026
Watch-list name (model)
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
How he plays
Play style
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
CFB Index positional classification
Starter
Returning starter at quarterback for a 7-6 Northwestern team that went +9 in the portal.
DNA match
Player DNA
Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Brendan Sorsby’s 2024 season.
Matches Brendan on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Brendan on
Recruiting rating (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Weight (lower)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Katin Houser’s path through East Carolina.
89%match
Matches Katin on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Garrett Shrader's junior season at Syracuse (2022).
66%match
Matches Garrett on
Height
Differs from Garrett on
Class year (lower)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Yards / attempt (lower)
Player DNA
Players who play like Aidan Chiles
Heisman trajectory
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peak #10
Peaked at #10 — top-10 conversation.
Background
2025 Junior (at Michigan State): Played in first nine games, including starting first eight games of season, before missing last three (Minnesota, Penn State and Iowa) games with an injury … completed 63 percent of his passes (128-of-203) for 1,392 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions ……
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology