CFB Zeitgeist Score
76
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 83rd percentile.
Luke Altmyer
sonnet prose (cached)
3,007 PASS YDS · 22 PASS TD · 242 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Illinois for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Illinois · editorial
Returning around him
- 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 3 Illinois players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (19 in / 27 out)
2026 Award watch
- Manning Award
- Davey O'Brien
- Heisman Watch
Illinois · Last season: 9-4 (AP #23) · Talent rank #64 · 2026 recruiting class #45
QB · ILLINOIS · BIG TEN
Luke Altmyer
- 4
- #9
- 6-2 | 205 lb
- Starkville, MS
Heisman Heat
#18
1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 3 · RecognizedR11 · National watch / fringe AA
National watch / fringe All-America. Knocking on the All-America door.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
5 seasons on the ladder
2021
Ole Miss · QB
—
2022
Ole Miss · QB
—
2023
Illinois · QB
—
2024
Illinois · QB
R08 · Watch-list name
Recognized
★
2025
Illinois · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2025+1466%
Up 1466% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.9219 | No. 196 recruit | HighSchool | Ole Miss |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ole Miss -> Illinois | 4-star | 0.9000 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 3007 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (3007).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Ole Miss
Composite
0.9219
#196 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Luke Altmyer
Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window
Belief Meter
54
Quietly Bullish
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=17
- Rivals · n=1
- National · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Luke Altmyer
Only 1 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
WEPA per dropback
+0.440
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks
National rank #10 of 58
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks 84th
Why it matters
#10 of 58 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by weighted EPA per dropback (min 250 dropbacks) — +0.440 EPA/play.
Vs cohort
This player +0.440 (84th)
HIGH · n=378 cohort 58
- Also strong
- Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)#12 / 57
- Total weighted-EPA passing#15 / 58
- TD : INT ratio#10 / 72
Signature Moment
Week 10 vs Rutgers — 88 ypc
Result W 35-13
The week the volume broke through — put up 88 yds vs Rutgers.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 13g
3,007Pass yards
22Pass TDs
5INT
Per game
231.3Pass yards
2Pass TDs
0INT
Final
3,007Pass yards
22Pass TDs
5INT
✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,007.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Luke Altmyer's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Illinois, he has 3,007 passing yards and 22 touchdown passes, but he also adds 242 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
246 90th
ATT
365 89th
CMP%
67.4% 78th
Y/A
8.2 79th
Passing Production
YDS
3,007 91st
TD
22 92nd
INT
5 32nd
Rushing
CAR
100 88th
YDS
242 82nd
YPC
2.4 45th
TD
5 86th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 52-3vs Western Illinois | 17/21 | 217 | 3 | 0 | 10.3 | 89.7 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 45-19@ Duke | 22/31 | 296 | 3 | 0 | 9.5 | 85.9 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 38-0vs Western Michigan | 17/26 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 7.5 | 51.1 | |
| Wk 4 | L 10-63@ Indiana | 14/22 | 146 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 | 42.9 | |
| Wk 5 | W 34-32vs USC | 20/26 | 328 | 2 | 0 | 12.6 | 97.5 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 6 | W 43-27@ Purdue | 19/22 | 390 | 1 | 0 | 17.7 | 90.9 | Season-high 390 yds |
| Wk 7 | L 16-34vs Ohio State | 30/44 | 248 | 1 | 1 | 5.6 | 64.4 | |
| Wk 9 | L 25-42@ Washington | 22/34 | 199 | 2 | 2 | 5.9 | 83.5 | |
| Wk 10 | W 35-13vs Rutgers | 19/31 | 235 | 4 | 1 | 7.6 | 88.9 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 12 | W 24-6vs Maryland | 15/25 | 172 | 2 | 1 | 6.9 | 80.5 | |
| Wk 13 | L 10-27@ Wisconsin | 21/35 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | 66.0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 20-13vs Northwestern | 10/15 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 16.5 | |
| Bowl | W 30-28vs Tennessee | 20/33 | 196 | 1 | 0 | 5.9 | 69.9 | |
| Total | 246/365 | 3007 | 22 | 5 | 8.6 | 71.4 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Ole Miss10-2HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning, fast tempo
2022Ole Miss8-5HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-heavy, fast tempo
2023Illinois5-7HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 3,007 | #36/382 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 22 | #35/407 | 92nd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 246 | #40/383 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 67.4% | #87/383 | 78th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 8.2 | #80/382 | 79th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 242 | #75/408 | 82nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.44 | #14/200 | 94th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 378 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 53.3% | #52/428 | 88th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 365 | #46/407 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 5 | #276/407 | 32nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 100 | #51/408 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 36 | #86/391 | 78th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 5 | #59/408 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.4 | #226/407 | 45th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 97.5% | #5/428 | 99th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 72.7% | #27/428 | 94th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 72.6% | #29/428 | 93rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 52.8% | #58/428 | 87th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 46.6% | #54/428 | 88th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 45.3% | #68/428 | 84th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 13.8% | #114/428 | 74th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.29 | #43/140 | 70th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 62 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 216 | 1.9 | 8.2 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 256 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 0.4 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 241 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 0.2 |
| Losses4g | 210 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 0.8 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 252 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 198 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 0.8 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
76All-Conference
Elite: completion % (87th). Strength: yards / att (82nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds48%of completions
64 comp5.5 yds avg8 TD
Middle
10–19 yds33%of completions
44 comp14.0 yds avg1 TD
Deep
20+ yds18%of completions
24 comp37.5 yds avg4 TD
Overall 72.1% completion on 183 attempts · 24 deep completions averaging 37.5 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Elite: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.44High (p75–p90) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.29Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Luke AltmyerIllinoisGunner StocktonGeorgia· 88% simKatin HouserEast Carolina· 86% simTrinidad ChamblissOle Miss· 84% sim
Completion %
Yards / att
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Rush TDs
Interceptions
Rush yards
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Surgeon
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Brady Cook’s 2023 season.
Brady Cook
84%match
#2
Max Duggan
Davey O'BrienUnitas Golden ArmAll-Big 12NFL Rd 7
76%
#3
Brennan Armstrong
All-ACC
73%
#4
Ty Simpson
NFL Rd 1 · Pk 13
72%
#5
Jaxson Dart
NFL Rd 1 · Pk 25
70%
Matches Brady on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Completion %
TD rate
Differs from Brady on
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Brady Cook’s path through Missouri.
Brady Cook
96%match
#2
Kenny Pickett
Unitas Golden Arm1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 20
86%
#3
Ian Book
All-ACCNFL Rd 4
85%
#4
Haynes King
All-ACC
83%
#5
Shane Buechele
82%
Matches Brady on
Height
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Payton Thorne's graduate season at Auburn (2024).
Payton Thorne
65%match
#2
Brady Cook
50%
#3
Behren Morton
NFL Rd 7
49%
#4
Blake Shapen
48%
#5
Carson Beck
All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1
47%
Matches Payton on
Yards / attempt
TD rate
Rush usage
Differs from Payton on
INT rate (lower)
Completion % (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bret Bielema
Pass share
45.6%
372 pass / 444 run
Plays / game
62.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.0%
292 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
1 coach2021
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2022
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2023
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2024
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2025
Bret Bielema
Illinois
Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownStarkville, MS
Height6'2"
Weight205 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey9
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamIllinois
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Big Ten
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Big Ten | -- |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Illinois | QB4 | #18 | #23 | 1.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Illinois | QB4 | #162 | #291 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Ole Miss | QB4 | #416 | #348 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
| 2021 | Ole Miss | QB4 | #403 | #256 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Illinois | Big Ten | QB | 4 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Starkville, MS |
| 2024 | Illinois | Big Ten | QB | 4 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Starkville, MS |
| 2023 | Illinois | Big Ten | QB | 4 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Starkville, MS |
| 2022 | Ole Miss | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Starkville, MS |
| 2021 | Ole Miss | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 9 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Starkville, MS |