CFB Zeitgeist Score
55
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 64th percentile.
Miller Moss
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Miller Moss arrives at Louisville with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
2,679PASS YDS16PASS TD-65RUSH YDS
PASSING VALUE · WEPA
+0.21
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 379 plays
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to Louisville for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Louisville · editorial
Returning around him
- 46% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 1 Louisville player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -6 net (33 in / 39 out)
2026 Award watch
- Manning Award
- Davey O'Brien
- Heisman Watch
Louisville · Last season: 9-4 (AP #19) · Talent rank #50 · 2026 recruiting class #68
QB · LOUISVILLE · ACC
Miller Moss
- 4
- #7
- 6-2 | 210 lb
- Los Angeles, CA
Heisman Heat
#58
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
5 seasons on the ladder
2021
USC · QB
—
2022
USC · QB
—
2023
USC · QB
—
★
2024
USC · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2025
Louisville · QB
—
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2025+3520%
Up 3520% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.9663 | No. 76 recruit | HighSchool | USC |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USC -> Louisville | 4-star | 0.9000 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 2679 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (2679).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to USC
Composite
0.9663
#76 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Miller Moss
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Miller Moss
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Completion %
0.6%
pct
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts
National rank #32 of 72
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 150 attempts 56th
Why it matters
#32 of 72 P4 + Notre Dame QBs at 0.6% completion rate (380 attempts).
Vs cohort
This player 0.6% (56th)
HIGH · n=380 cohort 72
- Also strong
- TD : INT ratio#39 / 72
- Yards per attempt#49 / 72
- Passing yards (total)#34 / 72
Signature Moment
Week 5 at Pittsburgh — 339 completion_pct
Result W 34-27
The week the volume broke through — put up 339 yds at Pittsburgh.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 12g
2,679Pass yards
16Pass TDs
7INT
Per game
223.2Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,902Pass yards
17Pass TDs
8INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 2,679): needs 321/game over remaining 1.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 2,679): needs 1,321/game over remaining 1.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 16): needs 9/game over remaining 1.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 16): needs 14/game over remaining 1.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 16): needs 19/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Miller Moss's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Louisville, he has 2,679 passing yards and 16 touchdown passes, but he also adds -65 rushing yards and 9 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
244 89th
ATT
380 91st
CMP%
64.2% 63rd
Y/A
7.1 57th
Passing Production
YDS
2,679 86th
TD
16 85th
INT
7 23rd
Rushing
CAR
54 72nd
YDS
-65 2nd
YPC
-1.2 10th
TD
9 95th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 51-17vs Eastern Kentucky | 17/25 | 223 | 1 | 2 | 8.9 | 89.3 | |
| Wk 2 | W 28-14vs James Madison | 13/23 | 151 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 | 59.0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 40-17vs Bowling Green | 23/32 | 316 | 0 | 0 | 9.9 | 71.9 | |
| Wk 5 | W 34-27@ Pittsburgh | 33/51 | 339 | 3 | 1 | 6.6 | 73.3 | Season-high 339 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 27-30vs Virginia | 34/48 | 329 | 2 | 1 | 6.9 | 54.2 | |
| Wk 8 | W 24-21@ Miami | 23/37 | 248 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 | 71.5 | |
| Wk 9 | W 38-24vs Boston College | 15/27 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 6.9 | 38.0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 28-16@ Virginia Tech | 19/28 | 136 | 1 | 1 | 4.9 | 67.3 | |
| Wk 11 | L 26-29vs California | 20/38 | 203 | 0 | 1 | 5.3 | 20.5 | |
| Wk 12 | L 19-20vs Clemson | 19/27 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 | 58.7 | |
| Wk 14 | W 41-0vs Kentucky | 12/20 | 182 | 3 | 0 | 9.1 | 87.8 | 3 TD passes |
| Bowl | W 27-22vs Toledo | 16/24 | 153 | 2 | 0 | 6.4 | 77.1 | |
| Total | 244/380 | 2679 | 16 | 7 | 7.2 | 64.0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021USC4-8HC: Donte Williams · Balanced, fast tempo
2022USC11-3HC: Lincoln Riley · Balanced
2023USC8-5HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning, slow tempo
2024USC7-6HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning
2025Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Louisville | 244 | 380 | 64.2% | 2,679 | 7.0 | 16 | 7 | 133.6 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | USC | 233 | 362 | 64.4% | 2,555 | 7.1 | 18 | 9 | 135.1 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | USC | 46 | 65 | 70.8% | 681 | 10.5 | 7 | 1 | 191.2 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | USC | 12 | 14 | 85.7% | 159 | 11.4 | 1 | 0 | 204.7 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | USC | 8 | 13 | 61.5% | 74 | 5.7 | 1 | 0 | 134.7 | -- | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 543 | 834 | 65.1% | 6,148 | 7.4 | 43 | 17 | 140.0 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Louisville | 54 | -65 | -1.2 | 9 | -- |
| 2024 | USC | 21 | -18 | -0.9 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | USC | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | USC | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2021 | USC | 3 | -14 | -4.7 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 85 | -56 | -0.7 | 13 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 2,679 | #54/382 | 86th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 16 | #63/407 | 85th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 244 | #43/383 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 64.2% | #143/383 | 63rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 7.1 | #165/382 | 57th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -65 | #400/408 | 2nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.21 | #139/200 | 31st pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 379 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 52.7% | #58/428 | 87th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 380 | #37/407 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 7 | #316/407 | 23rd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 54 | #114/408 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 13 | #243/391 | 38th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 9 | #23/408 | 95th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -1.2 | #367/407 | 10th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 94.8% | #26/428 | 94th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 73.6% | #23/428 | 95th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 73.5% | #22/428 | 95th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 50.4% | #75/428 | 83rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 45.8% | #66/428 | 85th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 45.0% | #73/428 | 83rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 7.4% | #214/428 | 50th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.32 | #36/140 | 75th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 31 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home9g | 217 | 1.1 | 7.5 | 0.6 |
| Road3g | 241 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 0.7 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 215 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 0.6 |
| Losses3g | 248 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 252 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 195 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
55Mid-pack
Elite: rush tds (86th). Concern: rush yards (4th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds52%of completions
71 comp5.7 yds avg1 TD
Middle
10–19 yds35%of completions
47 comp13.3 yds avg3 TD
Deep
20+ yds13%of completions
18 comp31.3 yds avg5 TD
Overall 65.7% completion on 207 attempts · 18 deep completions averaging 31.3 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.21Below (<p25) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.32Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Miller MossLouisvilleAthan KaliakmanisRutgers· 81% simCade KlubnikClemson· 79% simRocco BechtIowa State· 77% sim
Rush TDs
Pass yards
Completion %
Pass TDs
Yards / att
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Will Rogers’s 2023 season.
Will Rogers
74%match
#2
Gunnar Watson
74%
#3
Miller Moss
All-Big Ten
73%
#4
Dylan Lonergan
All-ACC
73%
#5
Kedon Slovis
72%
Matches Will on
Yards / attempt
TD rate
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Will on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Completion % (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Zac Thomas’s path through App State.
Zac Thomas
88%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Jarret Doege
86%
#3
Anthony Brown
85%
#4
Garrett Nussmeier
All-SECNFL Rd 7
85%
#5
Davis Mills
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 3
84%
Matches Zac on
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Garrett Nussmeier's graduate season at LSU (2025).
Garrett Nussmeier
71%match
All-SECNFL Rd 7
#2
Hudson Card
65%
#3
Preston Stone
All-Big Ten
60%
#4
Cade McNamara
All-Big Ten
51%
#5
Blake Shapen
47%
Matches Garrett on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Weight
Height
Differs from Garrett on
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Completion % (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Brohm
Pass share
50.2%
414 pass / 410 run
Plays / game
63.4
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.0%
314 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Scott Satterfield
Louisville
2022
Scott Satterfield
Louisville
2023era →
Jeff Brohm
Louisville
2024
Jeff Brohm
Louisville
2025
Jeff Brohm
Louisville
Coaching transition mid-career: Scott Satterfield → Jeff Brohm. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLos Angeles, CA
Height6'2"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey7
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamLouisville
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🥈
ALL-CONFERENCE · 1ST TEAM
All-Conf 1st team (2024)
All-Big Ten
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
2 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Big Ten | -- |
| 2024 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Big Ten | OTHE |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | USC | QB4 | #58 | #56 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | USC | QB4 | #83 | #89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2022 | USC | QB4 | #133 | #89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2021 | USC | QB4 | #984 | #928 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Louisville | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 7 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2024 | USC | Big Ten | QB | 4 | No. 7 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2023 | USC | Pac-12 | QB | 4 | No. 7 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2022 | USC | Pac-12 | QB | 4 | No. 7 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2021 | USC | Pac-12 | QB | 4 | No. 7 | 6-2 | 210 lb | Los Angeles, CA |