UCLA 17-15 Oregon (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: UCLA · Oregon

No. 21 UCLA5-017

No. 13 Oregon3-215Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. · Crowd 59,262

No. 21 UCLA beat No. 13 Oregon 17-15 as a 10-point underdog.

We had Oregon favored. UCLA won.

Next: UCLA beat Wisconsin 17-7, Sat Oct 17

Next: Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Um. Our guy kind of punch him in the neck after the play was dead.... Not great.

Q2 0:57 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Dieffenbach 9-yd TD pass to Knight, UCLA leads 17-6 (Q4, 13:31). UCLA went from 55% to 78% to win. Fans right then: “Surely Raiola cant play another snap right?” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCLA a 27% chance, and the closing betting line (UCLA was a 10-point underdog) put it at 21%.

Blocked field goalQ2 2:23

FinalUCLA 17-15 OregonUCLA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 13:31Dieffenbach 9-yd TD pass to Knight, UCLA leads 17-6UCLA 55% → 78% (+23)
2Q4 0:34Thomas 2-yd pass to HamptonUCLA 66% → 86% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 13:31Dieffenbach 9-yd TD pass to Knight, UCLA leads 17-6Oregon 45% → 22% (−23)
2Q4 0:34Thomas 2-yd pass to HamptonOregon 34% → 14% (−20)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:57Oregon fans condemn Bear Alexander for punching Nico Iamaleava after the interceptionQuoted at the top of the page.Bro why are you punching him when he's already down?r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:32Oregon fans argue Alexander punched Iamaleava after the interceptionUm. Our guy kind of punch him in the neck after the play was dead.... Not great.r/CFB game threadBro why are you punching him when he's already down?r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:26Raiola throws interception to Johnson as fans demand benchSurely Raiola cant play another snap right?r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:30Oregon commits sixth turnover as fans decimate Dan Lanning's coaching performanceThis has got to be one of the worst Oregon performances ever. How many turnovers is that now? Crazy.r/CFB game threadAin’t no way 9 TURNOVERS LOLr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:08Fans argue Oregon intentionally went offsides to save a timeoutActually smart to go offsidesr/CFB game threadThat's was a really smart penalty and he made it look like an accident, if they convert the first on a day its over and it was 2nd and 1r/CFB game thread

UCLA’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oregon -10), at 27% for UCLA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oregon or UCLA flair (2,745 and 905); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UCLA’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UCLA scored on 3 of its 16 drives; Oregon on 3 of its 17.

UCLA’s drives are teal, Oregon’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Oregon’s side

Oregon’s best moment: Knight 0-yd run (Q4 1:51). It lifted Oregon’s win chance by 16 points.

How Oregon fans took it: “Unrank Oregon” r/CFB game thread

“Reminder that USC lost to this team”

A UCLA fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The loudest stretch came in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

UCLA fans

knight“Wild to me some UCLA fans preseason weren’t convinced Knight would translate to P4”

penalties“You can’t tell me that UCLA just magically starting committing penalties every play, refs trying to will the ducks back”

field goal“Yup, this is an Oregon walk off field goal incoming, UCLA's not allowed to get program changing wins lol”

penalty“Is UCLA allowed to decline an offsides penalty? If so I have no idea why they didn't, but I don't know the rules”

Oregon fans

raiola“Well, raiola beat USC last weak, and Oregon this week. Not a bad two week run”

look“We might get the TD but we won’t get the 2pt and Dan will look kinda dumb”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, ball, back, don.

The winner fell to 12%.

What it cost

Oregon’s chance to make the playoff fell from 40% to 24%.

Make the playoff

UCLA · won21% → ▲33%

Oregon · lost40% → ▼24%

Win the conference

UCLA · won9% → ▲16%

Oregon · lost21% → ▼11%

Win the title

UCLA · won1% → 1%

Oregon · lost4% → ▼2%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UCLA 17, Oregon 15

UCLA covered +10 by 12. The total, 32, stayed under 57.5.

Team totals	UCLA	Oregon
Total yards	345	272
Passing	13 of 23, 205 yds	17 of 35, 199 yds
Rushing	47 for 140 yds	27 for 73 yds
First downs	17	12
Third down	4 of 16	1 of 12
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 2
Turnovers	3	7
Penalties	9 for 78 yds	5 for 45 yds
Time of possession	39:15	20:45

UCLA leaders

Passing Nico Iamaleava 10 of 17, 162 yds, 2 INT
Rushing Wayne Knight 22 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Woods 9 for 39 yds
Receiving Aidan Mizell 1 for 62 yds; Semaj Morgan 5 for 55 yds

Oregon leaders

Passing Brock Thomas 11 of 15, 156 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Dierre Hill Jr. 10 for 44 yds; Jordon Davison 13 for 41 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Dakorien Moore 4 for 77 yds; Evan Stewart 5 for 74 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

59° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 14

October game-day temperatures at Autzen Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 13:31 left3:20 p.m.

UCLA 17, Oregon 6 · Oregon 22% to win

no rain · wind 7 mph from the north-northwest · 62°

Dieffenbach 9-yd TD pass to Knight, UCLA leads 17-6

Measured at Eugene/mahlon Sweet airport, 8.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

UCLA · 4-0

Rated 62nd in our preseason ratings, 34th now, up 28 spots.

4 straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 54-3 @ Maryland #76 of 668

won by 51 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 52-38 vs Purdue #123 of 668

won by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 28-10 vs San Diego State #45 of 668

won by 18 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 45-24 @ California #63 of 668

won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Oregon · 3-1

Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings, 5th now.

3-1 in its last 4, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 41-27 @ USCTop 25 #25 of 668

won by 14 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 84-0 vs Portland State #244 of 668

won by 84 as a 58.5-point favorite

L 31-39 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 #231 of 668

lost by 8 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 34-27 vs Boise StateTop 25 #29 of 668

won by 7 as a 24.5-point favorite

Week by week

Oregon

Wk 1Wvs Boise State34-27
Wk 2Lat Oklahoma State31-39
Wk 3Wvs Portland State84-0
Wk 4Wat USC41-27

UCLA

Wk 1Wat California45-24
Wk 2Wvs San Diego State28-10
Wk 3Wvs Purdue52-38
Wk 4Wat Maryland54-3

Power rating by week

Oregon is rated 8.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oregon’s rushing EPA against UCLA, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oregon’s rushing EPA against UCLA’s defense
Oregon offense, 17th percentile · UCLA defense, 95th
Oregon’s EPA/play against UCLA’s defense
Oregon offense, 37th percentile · UCLA defense, 98th
Oregon’s explosive plays against UCLA’s defense
Oregon offense, 47th percentile · UCLA defense, 91st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UCLAOregon

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

UCLA leads the series 40-33

73 meetings since 1928 · Oregon has won the last 5

2024Oregon 34-13
2022Oregon 45-30
2021Oregon 34-31
2020Oregon 38-35
2018Oregon 42-21

Each line is Oregon’s chance to win through that meeting. Oregon is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UCLA fans are in a better mood than Oregon fans (60th vs 30th among FBS fanbases), even with Oregon favored.

Oregon favored by 10 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Oregon by 10, on the usual path until Q2 8:08

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward UCLA.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Oregon is worth +3.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 34th percentile.

91% at home, 72% on the road against FBS opponents (43-4 home, 29-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 732 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Oregon 45, UCLA 30Oct 22, 2022

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Oregon9th1-0
UCLA5th2-0

Full Big Ten standings

No. 21 UCLA upsets No. 13 Oregon 17-15