No. 4 Ohio State beats No. 5 Indiana 19-15
Team pages: Ohio State · Indiana
No. 4 Ohio State beat No. 5 Indiana 19-15. Share this game
We had Indiana favored. Ohio State won.
Next: Ohio State at USC, Sat Oct 31 · Ohio State favored by 7.5
Next: Indiana at Michigan, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Indiana favored by 7
Top comment in the game thread
Oh wow. I hate OSU but that’s a bad, bad call.
How it swung
The turning point: Hoover incomplete to Marsh, turnover on downs (Q4, 1:02). Ohio State went from 64% to 91% to win. Fans right then: “Oh wow. I hate OSU but that’s a bad, bad call.” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio State a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
A tight one: Ohio State bottomed out at 25% and won.
Up to 75% in the second quarter, then Indiana lost it.
Ohio State 19-15 Indiana
Ohio State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Indiana 15-19 Ohio StateIndiana lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:30Hoover 19-yd TD pass to Marsh, cuts it to 19-15Ohio State 91% → 69% (−22)
- 2Q4 1:024th and 4Hoover incomplete to Marsh, turnover on downsOhio State 64% → 91% (+27)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:30Hoover 19-yd TD pass to Marsh, cuts it to 19-15Indiana 9% → 31% (+22)
- 2Q4 1:024th and 4Hoover incomplete to Marsh, turnover on downsIndiana 36% → 9% (−27)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 2:03Fans condemn a targeting call on Hoover as a bailout
What the hell is this call? The defender was on time, and he ducked his head. Hoover lowered his head. That's not targeting.
r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Ohio State -3), at 55% for Ohio State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Indiana or Ohio State flair (682 and 1,993); both sides share one scale, regulation only.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Ohio State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q2, 0:07Sayin 2-yd TD pass to JacksonOhio State goes ahead 10-7Q2, 0:07 · Ohio State 10, Indiana 7▲17%Ohio State’s chance to win, 38% to 55%▲17%Ohio State’s chance to win, 38% to 55%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q3, 14:21Hoover 19-yd pass to ChandlerfumbledQ3, 14:21 · Ohio State 10, Indiana 7▲10%Ohio State’s chance to win, 62% to 72%▲10%Ohio State’s chance to win, 62% to 72%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q4, 12:46Sayin 38-yd TD pass to SmithOhio State leads 19-7Q4, 12:46 · Ohio State 19, Indiana 7▲6%Ohio State’s chance to win, 86% to 92%▲6%Ohio State’s chance to win, 86% to 92%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q4, 10:30Hoover 19-yd TD pass to Marshcuts it to 19-15Q4, 10:30 · Ohio State 19, Indiana 15▼22%Ohio State’s chance to win, 91% to 69%▼22%Ohio State’s chance to win, 91% to 69%▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Every drive
Ohio State scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Indiana on 2 of its 12.
Ohio State’s drives are teal, Indiana’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Indiana’s side
Indiana’s best moment: Hoover 19-yd TD pass to Marsh, cuts it to 19-15 (Q4 10:30). It lifted Indiana’s win chance by 22 points.
How Indiana fans took it: “22 consecutive wins isn't bad. The team has stuff to work on.” r/CFB game thread
Two crowds, one game
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Ohio State fans
grounding“how is it not intentional grounding? he's in the pocket and the WR on fahey's grounding call was closer”
Indiana fans
hoover“Hoover panicked too early and they have no idea what to do. You know theyre bringing pressure, what's the plan when that happens?”
helmet“i mean his helmet hit him in the chin it looked like. i don't think it was on purpose”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, hit, now, don.
Too close to call on 54% of plays.
What it cost
Indiana’s chance to make the playoff fell from 36% to 26%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Ohio State plays at USC on Sat Oct 31 with an 83% chance to make the playoff. Indiana plays at Michigan on Sat Oct 24 with a 26% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Ohio State 19, Indiana 15
Ohio State covered −3 by 1. The total, 34, stayed under 49.5.
| Team totals | Ohio State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 313 | 369 |
| Passing | 15 of 31, 235 yds | 20 of 40, 296 yds |
| Rushing | 37 for 78 yds | 29 for 73 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 17 |
| Third down | 6 of 15 | 8 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 7 for 50 yds | 4 for 42 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:12 | 27:48 |
Ohio State leaders
- Passing Julian Sayin 15 of 29, 235 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Bo Jackson 18 for 56 yds; Isaiah West 6 for 45 yds
- Receiving Jeremiah Smith 4 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Chris Henry Jr. 2 for 51 yds
Indiana leaders
- Passing Josh Hoover 20 of 40, 296 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Turbo Richard 16 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Lee Beebe 9 for 24 yds
- Receiving Charlie Becker 9 for 165 yds; Nick Marsh 3 for 57 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
47° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 16
The usual here around this date is 62°, with about 7 in 10 games between 48° and 73°.
October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Bloomington airport, 5.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Ohio State · 5-1
Rated 4th in our preseason ratings, 2nd now.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Indiana · 6-0
Rated 8th in our preseason ratings, 4th now.
Three straight wins, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
Week by week
Indiana
- Wk 2Wvs Howard55-0
- Wk 3Wvs Western Kentucky38-0
- Wk 4Wvs Northwestern29-23
- Wk 5Wat Rutgers47-15
- Wk 6Wat Nebraska20-17
Ohio State
- Wk 2Lat Texas23-24
- Wk 3Wvs Kent State59-3
- Wk 4Wvs Illinois42-19
- Wk 5Wat Iowa31-14
- Wk 6Wvs Maryland45-16
Power rating by week
Ohio State is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ohio State’s explosive plays against Indiana, 69 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ohio State’s explosive plays against Indiana’s defense
Ohio State offense, 75th percentile · Indiana defense, 6th
Ohio State’s rushing EPA against Indiana’s defense
Ohio State offense, 49th percentile · Indiana defense, 87th
Indiana’s success rate against Ohio State’s defense
Indiana offense, 74th percentile · Ohio State defense, 90th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Ohio State leads the series 81-13-5
99 meetings since 1901 · Indiana won the last meeting
- 2025 · neutral siteIndiana 13-10
- 2024Ohio State 38-15
- 2023Ohio State 23-3
- 2022Ohio State 56-14
- 2021Ohio State 54-7
Each line is Indiana’s chance to win through that meeting. Indiana is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Indiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (66th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 52%
- Line · 40%
- Indiana fans · 66th
- Ohio State fans · 47th
Ohio State favored by 3 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Ohio State by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Ohio State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +1.5 → +3 · Total: 48.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Indiana is worth +4.4 points (±5.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 56th percentile.
60% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (29-19 home, 19-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 195 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Indiana 13, Ohio State 10Big Ten Championship · Dec 6, 2025
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2020.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Indiana2nd3-0
- Ohio State1st3-0