Michigan 21-18 Penn State (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Penn State · Michigan

Penn State3-418

Michigan4-221Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich. · Crowd 110,731

Michigan beat Penn State 21-18.

We had Michigan favored. It won.

Next: Penn State vs Purdue, Sat Oct 31

Next: Michigan vs Indiana, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Michigan underdog by 7

Top comment in the game thread

Marsh literally drops the ball into an interception, what luck

Q2 6:20 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Kuzdzal 43-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 7-3 (Q3, 11:58). Michigan went from 62% to 77% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Michigan a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Michigan was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.

The edge changed hands 4 times before Michigan won it.

The edge changed hands 4 times and Penn State came out on the wrong end.

FinalMichigan 21-18 Penn StateMichigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 11:58Kuzdzal 43-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 7-3Michigan 62% → 77% (+15)
2Q4 11:40Hansen 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-11Michigan 93% → 78% (−15)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 11:58Kuzdzal 43-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 7-3Penn State 38% → 23% (−15)
2Q4 11:40Hansen 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-11Penn State 7% → 22% (+15)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 6:20Fans argue refs missed a safety call on Underwood's interception by TracyQuoted at the top of the page.Refs are awful today. That was PI but also we should’ve had a safety so I don’t care lolr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:22Underwood throws interception to Zayas as Michigan fans criticize WhittinghamBryce Underwood, 2028 Ball State starting quarterbackr/CFB game thread4/11 2 INTs at halftime and 60 yards of offense. Start Tommy Carr.r/CFB game thread
Q3 8:20Penn State fans demand Matt Campbell bench Rocco Becht after his interceptionRocco is serving straight Italian club combos.r/CFB game threadHey Campbell. Do you see how Michigan was willing to bench their insanely overpaid NIL qb for a freshman? Can you like, stop being overly loyal to some certain ISU guys? At least…r/CFB game thread
Q4 5:02Penn State fans demand Campbell bench Becht after Bracy sacks him for a fumbleBecht is a football terroristr/CFB game thread

Michigan’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Michigan -6), at 73% for Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan or Penn State flair (2,391 and 1,472); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Michigan’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Michigan scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Penn State on 3 of its 12.

Michigan’s drives are teal, Penn State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Penn State’s side

Penn State’s best moment: Hansen 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-11 (Q4 11:40). It lifted Penn State’s win chance by 15 points.

How Penn State fans took it: “Didn't even call the time out. Loser mentality. Sports are pain. Good luck Michigan fiends. Please have a better half season then this mess.” r/CFB game thread

“Don't do that... Don't give me hope”

A Penn State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

It was the second quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Michigan fans

carr“Tommy Carr is so good that he can overcome coaching by Whittingham and Beck”

Penn State fans

becht“14 points off 2 Rocco Becht picks. Just put Manske in the rest of the year and see what you have for the future”

safety“Refs are awful today. That was PI but also we should’ve had a safety so I don’t care lol”

tackle“Wait since when are we able to tackle in the open field? Where tf has this been the past 3 games?”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, now, half, don.

Box score

Michigan 21, Penn State 18

Penn State covered +6 by 3. The total, 39, stayed under 43.5.

Team totals	Penn State	Michigan
Total yards	332	301
Passing	28 of 44, 267 yds	10 of 18, 90 yds
Rushing	30 for 65 yds	35 for 211 yds
First downs	22	15
Third down	4 of 12	5 of 12
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	3	2
Penalties	5 for 53 yds	8 for 63 yds
Time of possession	32:02	27:58

Penn State leaders

Passing Rocco Becht 28 of 44, 267 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Carson Hansen 15 for 51 yds, 1 TD; James Peoples 5 for 14 yds
Receiving Chase Sowell 11 for 151 yds, 1 TD; Andrew Rappleyea 7 for 34 yds

Michigan leaders

Passing Tommy Carr 5 of 7, 47 yds
Rushing Savion Hiter 11 for 78 yds; Jordan Marshall 14 for 49 yds, 1 TD
Receiving JJ Buchanan 3 for 36 yds; Hogan Hansen 2 for 31 yds

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Michigan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left3:46 p.m.

Penn State 0, Michigan 0 · Michigan 73% to win

no rain

Becht 3-yd pass to Rappleyea

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Ann Arbor airport, 2.9 miles away, and Detroit/willow airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Penn State · 3-3

Rated 46th in our preseason ratings, 43rd now.

Three straight losses.

L 23-31 vs USCTop 25 #23 of 668

lost by 8 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 13-34 @ NorthwesternTop 25 #12 of 668

lost by 21 as a 3-point favorite

L 20-24 vs Wisconsin #66 of 668

lost by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 55-13 vs Buffalo #145 of 668

won by 42 as a 39.5-point favorite

W 27-9 @ Temple #90 of 668

won by 18 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 45-0 vs Marshall #24 of 668

won by 45 as a 23.5-point favorite

Last three games

Michigan · 3-2

Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 28th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-20 @ Minnesota #44 of 668

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 19-20 vs IowaTop 25 #16 of 668

lost by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 52-17 vs UTEP #176 of 668

won by 35 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 17-10 vs OklahomaTop 25 #15 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 13-12 vs Western Michigan #21 of 668

won by 1 as a 27.5-point favorite

Week by week

Michigan

Wk 1Wvs Western Michigan13-12
Wk 2Wvs Oklahoma17-10
Wk 3Wvs UTEP52-17
Wk 4Lvs Iowa19-20
Wk 5Lat Minnesota14-20

Penn State

Wk 2Wat Temple27-9
Wk 3Wvs Buffalo55-13
Wk 4Lvs Wisconsin20-24
Wk 5Lat Northwestern13-34
Wk 6Lvs USC23-31

Power rating by week

Michigan is rated 2.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Penn State’s rushing EPA against Michigan, 79 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Penn State’s rushing EPA against Michigan’s defense
Penn State offense, 15th percentile · Michigan defense, 94th
Penn State’s EPA/play against Michigan’s defense
Penn State offense, 41st percentile · Michigan defense, 97th
Penn State’s explosive plays against Michigan’s defense
Penn State offense, 32nd percentile · Michigan defense, 74th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Penn StateMichigan

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan leads the series 17-10

27 meetings since 1993 · Michigan has won the last 3

2023Michigan 24-15
2022Michigan 41-17
2021Michigan 21-17
2020Penn State 27-17
2019Penn State 28-21

Each line is Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Michigan is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Michigan fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (13th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Michigan favored by 6 · Total 43.5

How games like this usually go

Michigan by 6, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Penn State.

The total fell 8 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Michigan is worth +4.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.

86% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (50-8 home, 25-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 321 miles to get here.

The story going in

Michigan TE apologizes for criticizing OCOct 6, 2026

Last meeting in our History pages

Michigan 24, Penn State 15Nov 11, 2023

Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2018.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Michigan15th0-2
Penn State16th0-3

Full Big Ten standings

Michigan beats Penn State 21-18