Purdue at Penn State
Penn State (3‑4) hosts Purdue (3‑4). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Penn State (69%). Penn State’s passing offense is at the 74th percentile; Purdue’s pass defense is at the 2nd.
How they got here
Last three games
Purdue · 3-4
Rated 119th in our preseason ratings, 88th now, up 31 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 28-point win over Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Penn State · 3-4
Rated 46th in our preseason ratings, 48th now.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Penn State’s passing EPA against Purdue, 72 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Penn State’s passing EPA against Purdue’s defense
Penn State offense, 74th percentile · Purdue defense, 2nd
Penn State’s EPA/play against Purdue’s defense
Penn State offense, 41st percentile · Purdue defense, 9th
Penn State’s explosive plays against Purdue’s defense
Penn State offense, 32nd percentile · Purdue defense, 1st
What’s at stake
Purdue
- Purdue is 2 games back in Big Ten with 4 left to make it up.
- Barry Odom is ahead of Ryan Walters’s year-2 pace (3-4 vs. 1-6) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Penn State
- Penn State is 4 games back in Big Ten with 4 left to make it up.
- Penn State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
The series
Penn State leads the series 17-3-1
21 meetings since 1951 · Penn State has won the last 11
- 2024Penn State 49-10
- 2022Penn State 35-31
- 2019Penn State 35-7
- 2016Penn State 62-24
- 2013Penn State 45-21
Each line is Penn State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Purdue
The chip · vs big brotherIndiana spent a century as the easy in-state laughingstock — until the Hoosiers surged and Purdue cratered, and the Old Oaken Bucket started living on the wrong side of West Lafayette. The fanbase wants the rivalry's natural order restored before it becomes a permanent humbling.
What this game touches
Back-to-back two-win bottom. Purdue went 1-11 in 2024 and fired Ryan Walters, then hired Barry Odom from UNLV — and the first rebuild year produced another 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten), the program's two wins coming over Ball State and an FCS opponent. Two straight winless conference seasons left a once-respectable Big Ten program scraping the floor.
Penn State
The chip · vs big brotherFans will point to the scoreboard: a decade of being the Big Ten's clear third program behind Ohio State and Michigan, the two rivals who kept finding a way in the fourth quarter when Penn State couldn't. The standard was never the problem — clearing the team one rung up always was.
What this game touches
The 2025 free-fall and the firing it forced. Penn State opened 2025 ranked No. 2 with title aspirations, started 3-0, then lost in overtime to Oregon at home and dropped stunners to UCLA and Northwestern — a 22-21 home loss to the Wildcats sending the program to 3-3 and ending James Franklin's 12-year, 104-win tenure in October, the abrupt close to a decade defined by getting close and not closer.
Best players
Purdue
- Asaad Waseem (WR) · 588 receiving yards
- Ryan Browne (QB) · 1,822 passing yards
- Jojo Hayden (LB) · 43 tackles
Penn State
- Tony Rojas (LB) · 56 tackles
- Chase Sowell (WR) · 510 receiving yards
- Rocco Becht (QB) · 1,664 passing yards — Heisman odds: 20th (+5600)
What to watch
Player to watch: Rocco Becht (QB) — Penn State’s leading passer (1,664 passing yards) takes on Purdue’s pass defense (2nd percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Penn State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (11th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Beaver Stadium: noon Saturdays score 93, 7:30 pm Saturdays 88
Purdue at Penn State · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Beaver Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Beaver Stadium: noon Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Penn State is worth +3.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 46th percentile.
73% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (41-15 home, 26-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.7 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 476 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Penn State
- Wk 3Wvs Buffalo55-13
- Wk 4Lvs Wisconsin20-24
- Wk 5Lat Northwestern13-34
- Wk 6Lvs USC23-31
- Wk 7Lat Michigan18-21
Purdue
- Wk 3Lat UCLA38-52
- Wk 4Lvs Notre Dame10-49
- Wk 5Wat Illinois24-17
- Wk 6Wvs Minnesota41-13
- Wk 7Lvs Washington26-38
Power rating by week
Penn State is rated 4.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Penn State18th0-4
- Purdue10th2-2