UAB at South Florida
UAB (4‑3) at South Florida (5‑2) — no line posted yet, but the model favors South Florida (70%). South Florida’s offense is at the 3rd percentile on explosive plays; UAB’s defense is at the 95th.
How they got here
Last three games
UAB · 4-3
Rated 55th in our preseason ratings, 82nd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 13-point win over East Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 33-14 vs Samford #217 of 668
won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite
Last three games
South Florida · 5-2
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 62nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: South Florida’s explosive plays against UAB, 92 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Florida’s explosive plays against UAB’s defense
South Florida offense, 3rd percentile · UAB defense, 95th
South Florida’s passing EPA against UAB’s defense
South Florida offense, 23rd percentile · UAB defense, 84th
South Florida’s success rate against UAB’s defense
South Florida offense, 75th percentile · UAB defense, 18th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
South Florida leads the series 3-2
5 meetings since 2003 · South Florida has won the last 2
- 2025South Florida 48-18
- 2024South Florida 35-25
- 2023UAB 56-35
- 2004South Florida 45-20
- 2003UAB 22-19
Each line is South Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
UAB
The chip · vs big brotherUAB fans never forget that their own university system — the one that answers to Tuscaloosa — tried to bury the program. Every season the Blazers exist at all, they say, is a win over the people who wanted them gone.
South Florida
The chip · vs the national mediaBulls fans remember being No. 2 in the country and then being written off entirely — and they remember 2025, when USF beat Boise State and Florida in eight days and made the doubters look up again. They'll tell you nobody believed the rebuild until the scoreboard forced it.
What this game touches
The lost decade after No. 2 — and the coach who just walked out. USF climbed from a 1997 startup to No. 2 in 2007, then collapsed: the Leavitt firing, losing seasons, near-irrelevance. Alex Golesh finally rebuilt the Bulls into a 9-4, top-ten-scoring team in 2025 — and then left for Auburn in late November before the bowl, which USF lost. The Bulls open 2026 under Brian Hartline, hoping the momentum survived the exit.
Best players
UAB
- Muaaz Byard (LB) · 71 tackles
- Jo Pierce (DB) · 58 tackles
- Ike Esonwune (LB) · 47 tackles
South Florida
- Ayden Jackson (DB) · 38 tackles
- Zavier Hamilton (LB) · 35 tackles
- D.J. Crowther (RB) · 518 rushing yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Michael Van Buren Jr. (QB) — South Florida’s leading passer (1,266 passing yards) takes on UAB’s pass defense (84th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
UAB fans are in a better mood than South Florida fans (65th vs 21st among FBS fanbases), even with South Florida favored.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Raymond James Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 91, noon Saturdays 70
UAB at South Florida · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Raymond James Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Raymond James Stadium: noon Saturdays score 70, 3:30 pm 72, 7:30 pm 91.
- noon: 70, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 72, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
South Florida is worth +2.3 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.
41% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (17-24 home, 14-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 460 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
South Florida
- Wk 3Wvs Delaware State59-17
- Wk 4Wat Bowling Green14-6
- Wk 5Lvs Temple13-17
- Wk 6Lat UTSA24-31
- Wk 7Wvs Kent State29-2
UAB
- Wk 3Lat Louisiana14-21
- Wk 4Wvs Navy24-20
- Wk 5Wvs Samford33-14
- Wk 6Lat Memphis13-38
- Wk 7Wvs East Carolina30-17
Power rating by week
South Florida is rated 2.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Florida11th1-2
- UAB5th2-1