Delaware State at South Florida
Delaware State (2‑1) travels to South Florida (2‑0). No market line yet; the model gives South Florida a 94% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
Delaware State · 2-1
Picked #187 in the preseason · now #186 — about right.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Stony Brook as a 4.5-point underdog.
W 21–6 vs Bowie State #339 of 669
L 15–22 @ William & Mary #182 of 669
lost by 7 as a 9.5-point underdog
W 41–34 vs Stony Brook #176 of 669
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
Last two games
South Florida · 2-0
Picked #64 in the preseason · now #67.
Two straight wins, capped by a 4-point win over Army as a 3-point underdog.
W 28–24 @ Army #38 of 669
won by 4 as a 3-point underdog
W 19–9 vs Florida International #119 of 669
won by 10 as a 14.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Delaware State
- Delaware State needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- A win would be one of Delaware State’s biggest of the season — a 119-spot gap in the power ratings.
South Florida
- A win puts South Florida a step closer to a 10% shot at the CFP field.
- South Florida is the American Athletic program whose Charlie Strong tenure + 2024 7-6 Alex Golesh rebuild + Big East historical legacy define what Tampa Bay football survival looks like.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Delaware State
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase carries a quiet certainty that Delaware State belongs in the same breath as Howard and other MEAC powers—and 2007 proved it. Every losing streak feels like something the national conversation forgot.
What this game touches
The years between titles. Delaware State won the national championship in 2007, then watched 18 years pass without returning to that peak. The transition to a new head coach (DeSean Jackson, 2026) signals another rebuild—the challenge of sustaining HBCU excellence when resources don't match the ambition.
South Florida
The chip · vs the national mediaBulls fans remember being No. 2 in the country and then being written off entirely — and they remember 2025, when USF beat Boise State and Florida in eight days and made the doubters look up again. They'll tell you nobody believed the rebuild until the scoreboard forced it.
What this game touches
The lost decade after No. 2 — and the coach who just walked out. USF climbed from a 1997 startup to No. 2 in 2007, then collapsed: the Leavitt firing, losing seasons, near-irrelevance. Alex Golesh finally rebuilt the Bulls into a 9-4, top-ten-scoring team in 2025 — and then left for Auburn in late November before the bowl, which USF lost. The Bulls open 2026 under Brian Hartline, hoping the momentum survived the exit.
Best players
South Florida
- Ayden Jackson (DB) · 16 tackles
- Rodney Hill (LB) · 12 tackles
- Sam Robinson (LB) · 12 tackles
Conditions
83°F · 6 mph wind · Heavy Rain Shower
South Florida is worth +2.1 points (±4.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.
41% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (16–23 home, 13–33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.1 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 872 miles to get here.
Recent games
South Florida
- Wk 1Wvs Florida International19-9
- Wk 2Wat Army28-24
Delaware State
- Wk 1Wvs Stony Brook41-34
- Wk 1Lat William & Mary15-22
- Wk 2Wvs Bowie State21-6