Memphis beats East Carolina 41-34
Team pages: East Carolina · Memphis
Memphis beat East Carolina 41-34. Share this game
We had Memphis favored. It won.
Next: East Carolina vs Temple, Sat Oct 31
Next: Memphis vs Army, Sat Oct 31
What it cost
Memphis’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 21, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
East Carolina plays vs Temple on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to win the conference. Memphis plays vs Army on Sat Oct 31 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Memphis 41, East Carolina 34
East Carolina covered +10.5 by 3.5. The total, 75, went over 55.5.
| Team totals | East Carolina | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 421 | 484 |
| Passing | 19 of 39, 260 yds | 29 of 43, 320 yds |
| Rushing | 38 for 161 yds | 37 for 164 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 24 |
| Third down | 5 of 17 | 4 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 23 yds | 9 for 76 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:01 | 30:59 |
East Carolina leaders
- Passing Mitch Griffis 14 of 26, 199 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing TJ Engleman 18 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Gray 9 for 25 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Landon Sides 7 for 130 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Gray 3 for 39 yds
Memphis leaders
- Passing Marcus Stokes 29 of 43, 320 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Manny Covey 11 for 79 yds; Jaylin Carter 16 for 53 yds
- Receiving Jemyri Davis 7 for 91 yds, 2 TD; Jermane Hayes 3 for 89 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
East Carolina · 3-3
Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 95th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Memphis · 5-2
Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 62nd now, up 38 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Memphis
- Wk 2Lat Boise State20-38
- Wk 3Wvs UT Martin45-21
- Wk 5Wat Charlotte59-8
- Wk 6Wvs UAB38-13
- Wk 7Lat Tulane17-31
East Carolina
- Wk 2Lvs App State24-27
- Wk 3Wat Old Dominion20-17
- Wk 4Wvs North Carolina Central42-9
- Wk 6Wvs Rice28-12
- Wk 7Lat UAB17-30
Power rating by week
Memphis is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: East Carolina’s passing EPA against Memphis, 65 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
East Carolina’s passing EPA against Memphis’s defense
East Carolina offense, 14th percentile · Memphis defense, 79th
East Carolina’s success rate against Memphis’s defense
East Carolina offense, 9th percentile · Memphis defense, 71st
East Carolina’s explosive plays against Memphis’s defense
East Carolina offense, 63rd percentile · Memphis defense, 10th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
East Carolina leads the series 18-8
26 meetings since 1990 · East Carolina has won the last 3
- 2025East Carolina 31-27
- 2022East Carolina 47-45
- 2021East Carolina 30-29
- 2018Memphis 59-41
- 2017Memphis 70-13
Each line is Memphis’s chance to win through that meeting. Memphis is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
East Carolina fans are in a better mood than Memphis fans (97th vs 87th among FBS fanbases), even with Memphis favored.
Memphis favored by 10.5 · Total 55.5
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Memphis.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −10.5 · Total: 53.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Memphis is worth +3.1 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.
81% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (39-9 home, 24-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 711 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Memphis 70, East Carolina 13Nov 25, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Memphis5th2-1
- East Carolina8th1-1