The Zeitgeist List · coaching
Scott Satterfield
Followed Luke Fickell. Scott Satterfield slid Cincinnati from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.
The journeyman
87–62
2014–now · 3 stints
← all coachesIn his own words
We had already heard that schools had reached out — Texas Tech in particular had already reached out — with four games left
Yeah, there certainly have been scouts, GM’s, that have reached out, and just asking questions, more on a personal level than a football level, with their interest, knowing something like this could happen. I certainly think that now that the news is out, over the next few weeks, there’s going to be a lot more inquiries about him.
Great guy, great teammate, works hard. Gave it his all. Just obviously an unfortunate thing that happened with him, and hopefully he will learn from it and grow from it.
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 3rd career season — faster than 25% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #454 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
App State, 5 seasons
+0.0
Regional Program I → National Program II.
Louisville, 4 seasons
+0.7
National Program I → National Program I.
Cincinnati, 4 seasons (active)
−11.5
National Program I → National Program II.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
App State7.3pt#187 of 258 · a typical amount
Louisville8.1pt#169 of 258 · a typical amount
Cincinnati15.6pt#43 of 258 · more than most
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
4–4 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Dabo Swinney.
Rivalry record
4–4
50.0% · 4 rivals
One-score games
19–23
45.2% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Buyout owed
$12,008,333
bigger than 62% of FBS buyouts
The toughest matchup
vs. Dabo Swinney0–3
3 meetings, 2015–2021
’15 L’19 L’21 L · blew a 10-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood0–2 0.0%
Power Program4–17 19.0%
National Program15–20 42.9%
Regional Program40–12 76.9%
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Offense marginal impact
+0.56
#15 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.27
#40 of 325 · more than most
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
2023–now
Cincinnaticaretaker
Power Program III → National Program I
Scott Satterfield slid Cincinnati from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.
4th-best Cincinnati tenure of 19 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+6.5 pts
#78 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-25.4 pts
#190 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Luke Fickell (2017–2022).
| Season | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 3–9 | 5–7 | 7–6 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | — | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #75 | #51 | #61 | #58 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 41.0 | 48.2 | 47.5 | 32.6 | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Brad Glenn | Brad Glenn | Brad Glenn | Pete Thomas / Nic Cardwell | |
| DC | Bryan Brown / Nate Fuqua | Tyson Veidt / Nate Fuqua | Tyson Veidt / Cortney Braswell | Nate Woody / Cortney Braswell | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 52 | 40 | 81 | 35 | |
| Defense | 0 | 56 | 22 | 26 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 42.6 | 45.7 | 42.8 | 39.6 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 37.8 | 54.0 | 44.7 | 35.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 47.8 | 34.3 | 40.7 | — | |
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
88
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
93
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-5
#34 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Brendan Sorsby On3 modeled · $2,014,429Joe Cotton On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 230 lbs
across 69 of 88 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.8 lbs
#99 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#34 of 255 · more than most
Top states: OH (10), GA (8), TX (7), FL (7), LA (5)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
57.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.8
position-weighted
Net
-3.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Brendan Sorsby (QB) from Indiana
Biggest loss: Brendan Sorsby (QB) to Texas Tech
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Brad Glenn → Pete Thomas / co-Nic Cardwell · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 42.8% → 39.6% (-3.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 8% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Bryan Brown / co-Nate Fuqua → Tyson Veidt / co-Nate Fuqua · 2024
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Tyson Veidt / co-Nate Fuqua → Tyson Veidt / co-Cortney Braswell · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Tyson Veidt / co-Cortney Braswell → Nate Woody / co-Cortney Braswell · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
222 lbs
6′2″ avg · #141 of 767 · more than most
Running back
204 lbs
5′9″ avg · #531 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #409 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
249 lbs
6′4″ avg · #239 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
314 lbs
6′4″ avg · #178 of 779 · more than most
D-line
296 lbs
6′3″ avg · #148 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′2″ avg · #436 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #486 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys K via the portal
100%
#1 of 56 stints
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
69%
#26 of 243 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to Navy 13–35 AutoZone Liberty Bowl
9 NFL Draft picks: Tre Tucker (2023), Tyler Scott (2023), Josh Whyle (2023), Jowon Briggs (2024), John Williams (2025), Jake Golday (2026), Joe Royer (2026), Cyrus Allen (2026) + 1 more
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Evan Tengesdahl (2026)
15–22
2019–2022
Louisvillecaretaker
Power Program III → National Program I
Scott Satterfield moved Louisville from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.
5th-best Louisville tenure of 15 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+26.4 pts
#18 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-4.5 pts
#125 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Lorenzo Ward (2018–2018) · succeeded by Jeff Brohm (2023–2026).
| Season | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 8–5 | 4–7 | 6–7 | 7–5 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | — | L bowl | W bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #69 | #42 | #38 | #51 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 34.8 | 42.9 | 41.9 | 41.5 | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Dwayne Ledford | Dwayne Ledford | — | Lance Taylor | |
| DC | Bryan Brown | Bryan Brown | Bryan Brown / Cort Dennison | Bryan Brown / Wesley McGriff | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 90 | 84 | 92 | 53 | |
| Defense | 4 | 61 | 32 | 97 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 31.8 | 39.9 | 36.0 | 38.3 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 34.1 | 41.9 | 24.7 | 29.4 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 32.4 | 46.7 | 41.5 | 38.1 | |
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
19
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
34
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-15
#131 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 221 lbs
across 16 of 19 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+2.5 lbs
#170 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#41 of 255 · more than most
Top states: SC (3), GA (2), FL (2), TX (2), MS (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
43.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.2
position-weighted
Net
-11.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Quincy Riley (CB) from Middle Tennessee
Biggest loss: Jawon Pass (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Bryan Brown → Bryan Brown / co-Cort Dennison · 2021
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #690 of 767 · less than most
Running back
202 lbs
5′10″ avg · #582 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #472 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
245 lbs
6′2″ avg · #380 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
300 lbs
6′4″ avg · #691 of 779 · less than most
D-line
281 lbs
6′4″ avg · #444 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
225 lbs
6′1″ avg · #542 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #455 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
20%
#24 of 146 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
80%
#170 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2019: Beat Mississippi State 38–28 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2021: Lost to Air Force 28–31 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2022: Beat Cincinnati 24–7 Wasabi Fenway Bowl
6 NFL Draft picks: Mekhi Becton (2020), Tutu Atwell (2021), Dez Fitzpatrick (2021), YaYa Diaby (2023), Yasir Abdullah (2023), Kei'Trel Clark (2023)
25–24
2014–2018
App Statecaretaker
National Program II
Scott Satterfield held App State at National Program II for 5 seasons.
3rd-best App State tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+42.2 pts
#4 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+54.0 pts
#1 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Succeeded by Shawn Clark (2019–2024).
| Season | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 7–5 | 11–2 | 10–3 | 9–4 | 10–2 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | W bowl | W bowl | W bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #87 | #114 | #109 | #107 | #113 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||
| Pass rate | 38.8 | 32.9 | 36.6 | 40.2 | 37.2 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||
| OC | Frank Ponce / Dwayne Ledford | Frank Ponce / Dwayne Ledford | Frank Ponce / Shawn Clark | Frank Ponce / Shawn Clark | Frank Ponce / Shawn Clark | |
| DC | Nate Woody | Nate Woody | Nate Woody | Nate Woody | Bryan Brown | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | 87 | 78 | 62 | 88 | 86 | |
| Defense | 76 | 97 | 89 | 81 | 98 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 29.9 | 26.5 | 32.2 | 39.8 | 29.2 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 31.9 | 28.0 | 36.6 | 34.2 | 32.3 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 42.4 | 35.7 | 44.7 | 36.6 | 46.4 | |
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Frank Ponce / co-Dwayne Ledford → co-Frank Ponce / co-Shawn Clark · 2016the system held
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 28.2% → 36.0% (+7.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 72% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Ohio 31–29 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2016: Beat Toledo 31–28 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2017: Beat Toledo 34–0 Dollar General Bowl2018: Beat Middle Tennessee 45–13 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
2 NFL Draft picks: Ronald Blair (2016), Colby Gossett (2018)
47–16