Louisville: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2023–now

Jeff Brohm Steady

Jeff Brohm moved the Cardinals from National Program I to Power Program III in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+2.4 pts over 4 seasons · top 23% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Pete Lembo’s Buffalo run (2024–now)

4th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Scott Satterfield (2019–2022).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	10-4	9-4	9-4	5-3
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#31	#58	#68	#48
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	43.4	50.3	49.9	42.9
Coordinators
OC	Brian Brohm	Brian Brohm	Brian Brohm	Brian Brohm
DC	Ron English / Mark Hagen	Ron English / Mark Hagen	Ron English / Mark Hagen	Mark Ivey / Steve Ellis
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	62	92	55	93
Defense	79	61	81	71
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	41.3	47.5	48.9	41.2
Red-zone pass%	33.3	38.6	39.3	34.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	32.6	30.2	16.7	23.5

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+13.1 pts

#55 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+17.8 pts

#38 of 208 · top quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

117

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

124

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-7

#10 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Clev Lubin On3 modeled · $1,000,000Lincoln Kienholz On3 modeled · $2,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 246 lbs

across 87 of 117 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+5.1 lbs

#101 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#81 of 255 · middle half

Top states: FL (13), GA (11), KY (10), IN (8), TX (4)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

61.0

position-weighted

Talent lost

59.2

position-weighted

Net

+1.9

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Brady Allen (QB) from Purdue

Biggest loss: Brady Allen (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Ron English (co) / Mark Hagen (co) → Mark Ivey (co) / Steve Ellis (co) · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

217 lbs

6′4″ avg · #258 of 767 · middle half

Running back

197 lbs

5′10″ avg · #700 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

197 lbs

6′1″ avg · #204 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

243 lbs

6′4″ avg · #442 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

302 lbs

6′5″ avg · #650 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

272 lbs

6′4″ avg · #628 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

227 lbs

6′2″ avg · #442 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

194 lbs

6′1″ avg · #183 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Tight end via the portal

80%

#12 of 188 stints

Buys Safety via the portal

81%

#13 of 218 stints

Postseason detail2023: Lost to USC 28-42 DIRECTV Holiday Bowl2024: Beat Washington 35-34 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl2025: Beat Toledo 27-22 Bush's Boca Raton Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Isaac Guerendo (2024), Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (2024), Jamari Thrash (2024), Jawhar Jordan (2024), Tyler Shough (2025), Ashton Gillotte (2025), Quincy Riley (2025), Chris Bell (2026)

AI Narratives — “Louisville's Portal Moves Highlight EDGE Risks” and 4 more on the team page.

+2.4

33-15

2022

Deion Branch Short tenure

2022 defense ranked in the 97th percentile nationally — elite

1-0

2019–2022

Scott Satterfield Steady

Scott Satterfield moved the Cardinals from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.

2022 defense ranked in the 97th percentile nationally — elite

−1.4 pts over 4 seasons · top 40% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Whipple’s Massachusetts run (2014–2018)

5th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Bobby Petrino (2014–2018) · succeeded by Jeff Brohm (2023–now).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2019	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	8-5	4-7	6-7	7-5
Postseason	W bowl	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#69	#42	#38	#51
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	34.8	42.9	41.9	41.5
Coordinators
OC	Dwayne Ledford	Dwayne Ledford	—	Lance Taylor
DC	Bryan Brown	Bryan Brown	Bryan Brown / Cort Dennison	Bryan Brown / Wesley McGriff
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	90	78	91	53
Defense	4	62	21	97
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	31.8	39.9	36.0	38.3
Red-zone pass%	34.1	41.9	24.7	29.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	32.4	46.7	41.5	38.1

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+24.8 pts

#21 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-6.9 pts

#136 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-15

#131 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 221 lbs

across 16 of 19 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+2.5 lbs

#182 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: SC (3), GA (2), FL (2), TX (2), MS (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

43.0

position-weighted

Talent lost

54.2

position-weighted

Net

-11.1

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Quincy Riley (CB) from Middle Tennessee

Biggest loss: Jawon Pass (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Bryan Brown → Bryan Brown / Cort Dennison (co) · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

200 lbs

6′1″ avg · #690 of 767 · bottom quarter

Running back

202 lbs

5′10″ avg · #582 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

191 lbs

6′0″ avg · #472 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

245 lbs

6′2″ avg · #380 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

300 lbs

6′4″ avg · #691 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

281 lbs

6′4″ avg · #444 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

225 lbs

6′1″ avg · #542 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

189 lbs

6′0″ avg · #455 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Athlete via the portal

20%

#24 of 146 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Linebacker from high school

80%

#170 of 225 stints

Postseason detail2019: Beat Mississippi State 38-28 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2021: Lost to Air Force 28-31 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Mekhi Becton (2020), Tutu Atwell (2021), Dez Fitzpatrick (2021), YaYa Diaby (2023), Yasir Abdullah (2023), Kei'Trel Clark (2023)

−1.4

25-24

2018

Lorenzo Ward Short tenure

2018 defense ranked in the 2th percentile nationally — historically bad

0-2

2003–2006, 2014–2018

Bobby Petrino Builder

Bobby Petrino raised the Cardinals from National Program II to Power Program II.

2006 offense ranked in the 100th percentile nationally — elite

+18.8 pts over 9 seasons · top 5% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Willie Fritz’s Tulane run (2016–2023)

1st-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed John Smith (1998–2002) · succeeded by Steve Kragthorpe (2007–2009) · returned in 2014, succeeding Charlie Strong (2010–2013) · succeeded by Scott Satterfield (2019–2022).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2003	2004	2005	2006	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Record & result
Record	9-4	11-1	9-3	12-1	9-4	8-5	9-4	8-5	2-8
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	#63	#36	#24	#45	#33	#38	#34	#30
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	40.2	44.3	44.3	45.6	45.4	45.4	48.4	49.4
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	Garrick McGee	Garrick McGee	Lonnie Galloway / Chris Klenakis	Lonnie Galloway / Mike Summers	Lonnie Galloway / Mike Summers
DC	—	—	—	—	Todd Grantham	Todd Grantham	Todd Grantham	Peter Sirmon	Brian VanGorder
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	98	96	100	56	64	82	98	17
Defense	—	95	80	63	90	75	86	52	2
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	46.5	46.7	48.1	43.5	47.5	47.5	51.5	47.5
Red-zone pass%	—	30.2	32.9	33.6	41.0	37.0	36.9	36.4	31.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	54.5	45.2	15.8	27.0	22.0	29.6	48.6	25.0

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+8.3 pts

#69 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-2.4 pts

#117 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Garrick McGee → Lonnie Galloway (co) / Chris Klenakis (co) · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 47.5% → 47.5% (+0.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 100% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Lonnie Galloway (co) / Chris Klenakis (co) → Lonnie Galloway (co) / Mike Summers (co) · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 47.5% → 51.5% (+4.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 67% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Todd Grantham → Peter Sirmon · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2003: Lost to Miami (OH) 28-49 Bowl2004: Beat Boise State 44-40 Bowl2005: Lost to Virginia Tech 24-35 Toyota Gator Bowl2006: Beat Wake Forest 24-13 Orange Bowl At Miami Fl2014: Lost to Georgia 14-37 Belk Bowl2015: Beat Texas A&M 27-21 Bowl2016: Lost to LSU 9-29 Bowl2017: Lost to Mississippi State 27-31 Bowl

31 NFL Draft picks: Eric Shelton (2005), Stefan LeFors (2005), Kerry Rhodes (2005), Robert McCune (2005), Lionel Gates (2005), J.R. Russell (2005), Jason Spitz (2006), Elvis Dumervil (2006) + 23 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Elvis Dumervil (2005), Lamar Jackson (2016)

+18.8

77-35

2010–2013

Charlie Strong Steady

Charlie Strong moved Louisville from National Program I to Power Program III in 4 seasons.

2013 offense ranked in the 97th percentile nationally — elite

+6.2 pts over 4 seasons · top 11% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jerry Kill’s Northern Illinois run (2008–2010)

3rd-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Kragthorpe (2007–2009) · succeeded by Bobby Petrino (2014–2018).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2010	2011	2012	2013
Record & result
Record	7-6	7-6	11-2	12-1
Postseason	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#44	#27	#45	#36
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	43.5	45.0	49.7	49.1
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	48	57	91	97
Defense	63	71	65	92
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	36.9	38.6	41.9	37.4
Red-zone pass%	37.4	33.9	32.8	36.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	25.0	13.3	18.9	7.4

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Postseason detail2010: Beat Southern Miss 31-28 Beef 'o' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg2011: Lost to NC State 24-31 Belk Bowl2012: Beat Florida 33-23 Allstate Sugar Bowl2013: Beat Miami 36-9 Russell Athletic Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Johnny Patrick (2011), Bilal Powell (2011), Byron Stingily (2011), Greg Scruggs (2012), Calvin Pryor (2014), Marcus Smith (2014), Teddy Bridgewater (2014), Preston Brown (2014)

+6.2

37-15

2007–2009

Steve Kragthorpe Steady

Steve Kragthorpe slid the Cardinals from Power Program II to National Program I in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−12.2 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 7% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Frank Spaziani’s Boston College run (2009–2012)

2nd-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Bobby Petrino (2003–2006) · succeeded by Charlie Strong (2010–2013).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2007	2008	2009
Record & result
Record	6-6	5-7	4-8
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#49	#46	#57
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	54.0	46.3	46.3
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	94	55	40
Defense	18	29	14
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	46.8	35.1	41.3
Red-zone pass%	44.8	26.0	41.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	25.8	39.5	38.9

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

7 NFL Draft picks: Brian Brohm (2008), Harry Douglas (2008), Gary Barnidge (2008), Breno Giacomini (2008), Mario Urrutia (2008), Eric Wood (2009), George Bussey (2009)

−12.2

15-21

1998–2002

John Smith Steady

John Smith moved Louisville from Regional Program I to National Program II in 5 seasons.

+7.4 pts over 5 seasons · top 9% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Houston Nutt’s Ole Miss run (2008–2011)

6th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Ron Cooper (1995–1997) · succeeded by Bobby Petrino (2003–2006).

Season	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
Record & result
Record	7-5	7-5	9-3	11-2	7-6
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Interior line from high school

100%

#198 of 224 stints

Postseason detail1998: Lost to Marshall 29-48 Bowl1999: Lost to Boise State 31-34 Bowl2000: Lost to Colorado State 17-22 Bowl2001: Beat BYU 28-10 Bowl2002: Lost to Marshall 15-38 Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Chris Redman (2000), Frank Moreau (2000), Rashad Holman (2001), Deion Branch (2002), Dewayne White (2003), Dave Ragone (2003), Curry Burns (2003), Chris Johnson (2003)

+7.4

41-21

1995–1997

Ron Cooper Steady

Ron Cooper slid the Cardinals from Regional Program I to National Program III in 3 seasons.

−0.5 pts over 3 seasons · top 36% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Dantonio’s Cincinnati run (2004–2006)

7th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Howard Schnellenberger (1985–1994) · succeeded by John Smith (1998–2002).

4 NFL Draft picks: Sam Madison (1997), Tyrus McCloud (1997), Carl Powell (1997), Leland Taylor (1997)

−0.5

13-20

1985–1994

Howard Schnellenberger Steady

Howard Schnellenberger moved the Cardinals from Regional Program IV to Regional Program I in 10 seasons.

+8.3 pts over 10 seasons · bottom 34% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Price’s UTEP run (2004–2012, 2017)

10th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Bob Weber (1980–1984) · succeeded by Ron Cooper (1995–1997).

Season	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Record & result
Record	2-9	3-8	3-7-1	8-3	6-5	10-1-1	2-9	5-6	9-3	6-5
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	W bowl	—	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1990: Beat Alabama 34-7 Bowl1993: Beat Michigan State 18-7 Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Ernest Givins (1986), Bruce Armstrong (1987), Carwell Gardner (1990), Ted Washington (1991), Browning Nagle (1991), Ray Buchanan (1993), Deral Boykin (1993), Joe Johnson (1994) + 1 more

+8.3

54-56-2

1980–1984

Bob Weber Steady

Bob Weber slid Louisville from Regional Program I to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

−7.1 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike DuBose’s Alabama run (1997–2000)

12th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Vince Gibson (1975–1979) · succeeded by Howard Schnellenberger (1985–1994).

4 NFL Draft picks: Eddie Johnson (1981), Tom Andrews (1984), Dean May (1984), Ron Davenport (1985)

−7.1

20-35

1975–1979

Vince Gibson Steady

Vince Gibson held the Cardinals at Regional Program I for 5 seasons.

−1.3 pts over 5 seasons · top 39% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Kyle Flood’s Rutgers run (2012–2015)

11th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Tom Alley (1973–1974) · succeeded by Bob Weber (1980–1984).

Season	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979
Record & result
Record	1-10	4-7	7-4-1	7-4	4-6-1
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1977: Lost to Louisiana Tech 14-24 Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Dwayne Woodruff (1979), Otis Wilson (1980)

−1.3

23-31-2

1973–1974

Tom Alley Short tenure

9-13

1969–1972

Lee Corso Steady

Lee Corso moved the Cardinals from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

+7.4 pts over 4 seasons · top 9% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Smith’s Louisville run (1998–2002)

8th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Frank Camp (1962–1968) · succeeded by Tom Alley (1973–1974).

Season	1969	1970	1971	1972
Record & result
Record	5-4-1	8-3-1	6-3-1	9-1
Postseason	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1970: Tied Long Beach State 24-24 Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Lee Bouggess (1970), Cleo Walker (1970), Larry Ball (1972), Amos Martin (1972), Tom Jackson (1973)

+7.4

28-11-3

1962–1968

Frank Camp Steady

Frank Camp held Louisville at Regional Program I for 7 seasons.

9th-best Louisville tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Lee Corso (1969–1972).

Regional Program I

32-38