The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Charlie Strong

Followed Willie Taggart. Charlie Strong slid South Florida from National Program III to National Program II in 3 seasons.

Peak, then fade
74–53
2004–2019 · 4 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFLORIDALOUISVILLETEXASSOUTH FLORIDABlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelFlorida, 2004: 0-1, Blue Blood2004-2.4Louisville, 2010: 7-6, National Program I2010Louisville, 2011: 7-6, National Program I2011Louisville, 2012: 11-2, National Program I2012Louisville, 2013: 12-1, Power Program III2013+6.2Texas, 2014: 6-7, Power Program I2014Texas, 2015: 5-7, Power Program I2015Texas, 2016: 5-7, Power Program II2016-9.8South Florida, 2017: 10-2, National Program II2017South Florida, 2018: 7-6, National Program III2018South Florida, 2019: 4-8, National Program III2019-2.9One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Blue Blood in his 1st career season — faster than 59% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #1 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Louisville, 4 seasons
+6.2
National Program I → Power Program III.
Texas, 3 seasons
−9.8
Power Program I → Power Program II.
South Florida, 3 seasons
−2.9
National Program II → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Texas2014–2016▼ 6.6ptSouth Florida2017–2019▲ 5.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Texas14.6pt#58 of 258 · more than most
South Florida9.0pt#153 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

8–9 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Gary Patterson.

Rivalry record
8–9
47.1% · 5 rivals
One-score games
27–26
50.9% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–0
100.0%
Rivalry ledger
Kentucky3–175%
Cincinnati2–250%
Oklahoma1–233%
Texas Tech2–167%
UCF0–30%
The toughest matchup
3 meetings, 2014–2016
’14 L’15 L’16 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–0 100.0%
Power Program
9–18 33.3%
National Program
25–26 49.0%
Regional Program
31–6 83.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.15
#216 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.01
#166 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2017–2019
South Floridacaretaker
National Program III → National Program II
Charlie Strong slid South Florida from National Program III to National Program II in 3 seasons.

3rd-best South Florida tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-7.7 pts
#143 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+0.4 pts
#101 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Willie Taggart (2013–2016) · succeeded by Jeff Scott (2020–2022).

Season201720182019Trend
Record & result
Record10–27–64–8
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#76#65#77
Style — pass rate
Pass rate36.745.642.4
Coordinators
OCSterlin GilbertSterlin GilbertKerwin Bell
DCBrian Jean-MaryBrian Jean-MaryBrian Jean-Mary
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense683624
Defense792153
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%33.437.639.0
Red-zone pass%29.527.840.8
4th-down go%opp. territory36.736.630.8
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Sterlin Gilbert → Kerwin Bell · 2019
36th pct24th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 37.6% → 39.0% (+1.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 74% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2017: Beat Texas Tech 38–34 Birmingham Bowl2018: Lost to Marshall 20–38 Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Marlon Mack (2017), Rodney Adams (2017), Kofi Amichia (2017), Deadrin Senat (2018), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2018)

21–16
2014–2016
Texasinheritor
Blue Blood → Power Program I
Charlie Strong inherited a Blue Blood Texas and won with it.

7th-best Texas tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-29.0 pts
#198 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-12.3 pts
#156 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mack Brown (1998–2013) · succeeded by Tom Herman (2017–2020).

Season201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record6–75–75–7
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#17#10#7
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.932.340.2
Coordinators
OCJoe WicklineJay Norvell / Joe WicklineSterlin Gilbert
DCVance BedfordVance BedfordVance Bedford
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense184330
Defense874955
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%36.728.837.7
Red-zone pass%24.723.127.0
4th-down go%opp. territory25.025.734.6
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Joe Wickline → co-Jay Norvell / Joe Wickline · 2015
18th pct43rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.7% → 28.8% (-7.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 50% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Jay Norvell / Joe Wickline → Sterlin Gilbert · 2016
43rd pct30th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 28.8% → 37.7% (+9.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 86% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Arkansas 7–31 Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Malcom Brown (2015), Jordan Hicks (2015), Mykkele Thompson (2015), Quandre Diggs (2015), Geoff Swaim (2015), Hassan Ridgeway (2016), D'Onta Foreman (2017)

16–21
2010–2013
Louisvillecaretaker
National Program I → Power Program III
Charlie Strong moved Louisville from National Program I to Power Program III in 4 seasons.

3rd-best Louisville tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Kragthorpe (2007–2009).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

8 NFL Draft picks: Johnny Patrick (2011), Bilal Powell (2011), Byron Stingily (2011), Greg Scruggs (2012), Calvin Pryor (2014), Marcus Smith (2014), Teddy Bridgewater (2014), Preston Brown (2014)

37–15
2004–2004
Floridainheritor
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Charlie Strong inherited a Blue Blood Florida and won with it.

7th-best Florida tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Urban Meyer (2005–2010).

8 NFL Draft picks: Ben Troupe (2004), Keiwan Ratliff (2004), Max Starks (2004), Guss Scott (2004), Bobby McCray (2004), Channing Crowder (2005), Ciatrick Fason (2005), Reynaldo Hill (2005)

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