Cincinnati at Houston
Houston (#17, 6‑2) hosts Cincinnati (5‑3). The market has Houston favored by 11.5. The model gives Houston a 80% shot. Houston’s passing offense is at the 99th percentile; Cincinnati’s pass defense is at the 11th.
How they got here
Last three games
Cincinnati · 5-3
Rated 109th in our preseason ratings, 73rd now, up 36 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 13-point win over Texas Tech as a 10.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Houston · 6-2
Rated 20th in our preseason ratings, 20th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 19-point win over Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Houston’s passing EPA against Cincinnati, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Houston’s passing EPA against Cincinnati’s defense
Houston offense, 99th percentile · Cincinnati defense, 11th
Houston’s EPA/play against Cincinnati’s defense
Houston offense, 96th percentile · Cincinnati defense, 20th
Cincinnati’s explosive plays against Houston’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 98th percentile · Houston defense, 20th
What’s at stake
Cincinnati
- Cincinnati needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 80% with a loss.
- Cincinnati is still shaking off a 24-point loss.
Houston
- Houston is 2 games back in Big 12 with 3 left to make it up — 7% to win it with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- Willie Fritz is behind Dana Holgorsen’s year-3 pace (6-2 vs. 7-1) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
The series is tied 15-15
30 meetings since 1957 · Cincinnati has won the last 5
- 2024Cincinnati 34-0
- 2023Cincinnati 24-14
- 2021Cincinnati 35-20
- 2020Cincinnati 38-10
- 2019Cincinnati 38-23
Each line is Houston’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Cincinnati
The chip · vs the committeeBearcat fans remember being told for years a team like theirs could never make the Playoff — so they made it, undefeated, the first ones in — and they say the people who tried to keep them out still haven't given them full credit for kicking down the door.
What this game touches
Proving the Big 12 move was worth it. After the 2021 breakthrough, Cincinnati's Power-conference reality has been a grind — a 5-7 missed bowl in 2024, then a 7-6 in 2025 capped by a 35-13 Liberty Bowl loss to Navy — with the fanbase still waiting for the Big 12 to feel like the upgrade it was sold as.
Houston
The chip · vs big brotherCougar fans watched Texas and Texas A&M get the invitations and the TV money while a program in the nation's fourth-largest city was told to wait its turn; they carry the snub of being the third team in their own state into every Big 12 Saturday.
What this game touches
Left behind in realignment. When the Southwest Conference broke up in 1996, Houston — a Houston-based program with real history — was left out of the Big 12 while the in-state powers were waved in, condemning the Cougars to two decades of mid-major exile despite living in one of the country's richest talent beds.
Best players
Cincinnati
- Antwan Peek Jr. (LB) · 62 tackles
- Jonathan Thompson (LB) · 60 tackles
- Jasper Beeler (S) · 58 tackles
Houston
- Amare Thomas (WR) · 620 receiving yards
- Conner Weigman (QB) · 2,052 passing yards — Heisman odds: 21st (+7000)
- Kentrell Webb (DB) · 46 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Conner Weigman (QB) — Houston’s leading passer (2,052 passing yards) takes on Cincinnati’s pass defense (11th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Houston fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (58th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Houston favored by 11.5 · Total 62.5
Houston by 11.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Houston’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Cincinnati at Houston · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FOX · TDECU Stadium.
- 74°feels like
- 4%average rain chance
- 12 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at TDECU Stadium: noon Saturdays score 78, 3:30 pm 77, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 78, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 77, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Houston has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.6 points (±3.6), home against road — 0th percentile of FBS.
55% at home, 56% on the road against FBS opponents (24-20 home, 27-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 895 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Houston
- Wk 4Wat Georgia Southern42-28
- Wk 5Wvs UCF27-17
- Wk 6Wat Kansas State35-16
- Wk 7Wvs Oklahoma State35-32
- Wk 8Lat Utah13-21
Cincinnati
- Wk 4Wvs Kansas State31-26
- Wk 5Lat Arizona7-34
- Wk 7Lat West Virginia42-45
- Wk 8Wvs Texas Tech37-24
- Wk 9Lvs Utah25-49
Power rating by week
Houston is rated 7.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Houston.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −10.5 → −11.5 · Total: 61.5 → 62.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Houston6th3-2
- Cincinnati11th2-3
Last meeting in our History pages
- Cincinnati 35, Houston 20American Athletic Championship · Dec 4, 2021