The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Matt Campbell

Followed Paul Rhoads. Matt Campbell raised Iowa State from Regional Program III to National Program I.

The builder
107–70
2011–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

I think from my end of it, it means the world to me to understand our history, to understand our past
If we were ever going to leave Iowa State
FOX Sports
it was going to have to be a school and an institution that really fit how I believe and what I believe [is the right way to] build culture, how you build a team and how you build forward. I think for the last six months, we've been reminded why it was such a great fit for us at Penn State.
FOX Sports
Ben has had a really good spring. Honestly, this is the first offseason that Ben has truly had during his collegiate career. And I think you see it
On3
Marcus Neal, I don’t know if there was a better defensive player in the Big 12 last year
On3
I think that’s the one thing that we were pretty proud of the completion of the current roster was we didn’t just sell out for all seniors. There’s pretty good class disparity
On3

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 16th career season — faster than 2% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #388 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Toledo, 5 seasons
+7.5
Regional Program II → National Program III.
Iowa State, 10 seasons (active)
+18.4
Regional Program II → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Toledo2011–2015▲ 4.7ptIowa State2016–2025▼ 4.5ptPenn State2026–2026– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Iowa State12.9pt#75 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

7–9 against his rivals. Just 3–6 against Kirk Ferentz.

Rivalry record
7–9
43.8% · 3 rivals
One-score games
36–40
47.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Iowa3–633%
Bowling Green4–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Kirk Ferentz3–6
9 meetings, 2016–2025
’16 L’17 L · blew a 10-pt lead’18 L · blew a 3-pt lead’19 L · blew a 8-pt lead’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead’22 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’23 L’24 W · erased a 13-pt deficit’25 W
33% win rate across a real, 9-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
24–37 39.3%
National Program
23–16 59.0%
Regional Program
44–12 78.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.30
#56 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.09
#97 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionOne fan's take

One fan believes Matt Campbell is contributing to Penn State's recent success on the field

I think Penn State will make the CFP this year, because of their easy schedule, and because Matt Campbell is a good coach.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 23, 2026 · via The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast

Coaching career

2026–now
Penn State
too new to grade yet

4th-best Penn State tenure of 8 by the numbers.

Followed James Franklin (2014–2025).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
38
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
48
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-10
#5 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Rocco Becht On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 245 lbs
across 35 of 38 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+10.2 lbs
#12 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#254 of 255 · less than most
Top states: TX (7), IA (7), MO (3), NJ (2), FL (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.9
position-weighted
Net
-3.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Rocco Becht (QB) from Iowa State
Biggest loss: Ethan Grunkemeyer (QB) to Virginia Tech
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Interior line via the portal
100%
#1 of 224 stints
Buys D-line via the portal
100%
#1 of 239 stints

8 NFL Draft picks: Olaivavega Ioane (2026), Drew Allar (2026), Drew Shelton (2026), Dani Dennis-Sutton (2026), Zakee Wheatley (2026), Nicholas Singleton (2026), Zane Durant (2026), Kaytron Allen (2026)

0–0
2016–now
Iowa Statebuilder
Regional Program III → National Program I
Matt Campbell raised Iowa State from Regional Program III to National Program I.

1st-best Iowa State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+13.4 pts
#55 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+3.3 pts
#87 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Paul Rhoads (2009–2015).

Season2016201720182019202020212022202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record3–98–58–57–69–37–64–87–611–38–4
PostseasonW CFPL bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#55#52#55#46#46#59#39#42#53#54
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.552.843.954.045.052.054.949.948.042.0
Coordinators
OCTom ManningTom ManningTom ManningTom ManningTom ManningTom ManningNathan ScheelhaaseTaylor MouserTaylor Mouser
DCJon HeacockJon HeacockJon HeacockJon HeacockJon HeacockJon HeacockJon HeacockJon HeacockJon HeacockJon Heacock
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense6471776492877736152
Defense24685840885673492171
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%37.943.537.849.437.144.144.443.137.635.9
Red-zone pass%40.047.532.845.528.939.153.646.439.030.1
4th-down go%opp. territory32.529.432.632.135.135.944.720.835.339.6
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
24
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
78
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-54
#168 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 249 lbs
across 19 of 24 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.9 lbs
#25 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#72 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: TX (4), IL (4), MO (2), MN (2), FL (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.8
position-weighted
Net
-3.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Conrad Hawley (QB) from Kansas
Biggest loss: JJ Kohl (QB) to App State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tom Manning → Nathan Scheelhaase · 2023
7th pct73rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 44.4% → 43.1% (-1.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Nathan Scheelhaase → Taylor Mouser · 2024
73rd pct61st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.1% → 37.6% (-5.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 90% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
217 lbs
6′2″ avg · #253 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
212 lbs
6′0″ avg · #221 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
203 lbs
6′2″ avg · #48 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
255 lbs
6′6″ avg · #68 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
314 lbs
6′5″ avg · #199 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
282 lbs
6′3″ avg · #433 of 753 · a typical amount
Edge
268 lbs
6′4″ avg · #17 of 188 · more than most
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′2″ avg · #212 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #24 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
75%
#49 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2017: Beat Memphis 21–20 CFP2018: Lost to Washington State 26–28 Valero Alamo Bowl2019: Lost to Notre Dame 9–33 Camping World Bowl2020: Beat Oregon 34–17 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl2021: Lost to Clemson 13–20 Cheez-It Bowl2023: Lost to Memphis 26–36 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2024: Beat Miami 42–41 Pop-Tarts Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: David Montgomery (2019), Hakeem Butler (2019), Kene Nwangwu (2021), Breece Hall (2022), Eyioma Uwazurike (2022), Charlie Kolar (2022), Brock Purdy (2022), Will McDonald IV (2023) + 8 more

6 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Breece Hall (2020), JaQuan Bailey (2020), Mike Rose (2020), Breece Hall (2021), Will McDonald IV (2021), Xavier Hutchinson (2022)

72–55
2011–2015
Toledocaretaker
Regional Program III → National Program III
Matt Campbell moved Toledo from Regional Program III to National Program III in 5 seasons.

7th-best Toledo tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+34.5 pts
#11 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+41.1 pts
#2 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tim Beckman (2009–2010).

Season20112012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record1–09–47–59–41–0
PostseasonW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#92#84
Style — pass rate
Pass rate40.945.5
Coordinators
OCJason Candle / Louis AyeniJason Candle
DCJon HeacockJon Heacock
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7981
Defense7388
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%34.635.0
Red-zone pass%29.734.2
4th-down go%opp. territory33.330.6
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Arkansas State 63–44 Godaddy Bowl2015: Beat Temple 32–17 Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
35–15