Matt Campbell

Head coach · Penn State
1st season · since 2026 · Iowa State before

At Penn State4-4since 2026 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool1% · 94th of 132 jobsLast gameW 31-17vs Purdue · Oct 31Nextat WashingtonSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FS1
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianToledoIowa StatePenn StateBowling GreenBowling GreenIowaIowaBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelToledo when he took over: 19.6 (Regional Program II), its final 2011 readingToledo, 2012: 9-4, Regional Program IIToledo, 2012: 9-4, Regional Program II2012Toledo, 2013: 7-5, Regional Program IIToledo, 2014: 9-4, Regional Program IToledo, 2015: 9-2, National Program IIIToledo, 2015: 9-2, National Program III2015+8.8Iowa State when he took over: 19.0 (Regional Program III), its final 2015 readingIowa State, 2016: 3-9, Regional Program IIIowa State, 2016: 3-9, Regional Program II2016Iowa State, 2017: 8-5, Regional Program IIowa State, 2018: 8-5, National Program IIIIowa State, 2019: 7-6, National Program IIIIowa State, 2020: 9-3, National Program IIIowa State, 2021: 7-6, National Program IIIowa State, 2022: 4-8, National Program IIIowa State, 2023: 7-6, National Program IIIowa State, 2024: 11-3, National Program IIowa State, 2025: 8-4, National Program IIowa State, 2025: 8-4, National Program I2025+18.4Penn State when he took over: 62.8 (Power Program I), its final 2025 readingPenn State, 2026: 4-4, Power Program IPenn State, 2026: 4-4, Power Program I2026-1.0best: 2026gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 5-5

Toledo’11W’12L’14WIowa State’17W’18L’19L’20W’21L’23L’24W

Show all 10 games
Toledo2011Military BowlW 42-412012Famous Idaho Potato BowlL 15-412014GoDaddy BowlW 63-44Iowa State2017Liberty BowlW 21-202018Alamo BowlL 26-282019Camping World BowlL 9-332020Fiesta BowlW 34-172021Cheez-It BowlL 13-202023Liberty BowlL 26-362024Pop-Tarts BowlW 42-41

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-17 vs. Purdue Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextat Washington Sat Nov 7
  • Stature12th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at Washington

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET FS1 · Washington is 5-3 · First meeting between Campbell and Jedd Fisch as head coaches · Penn State’s chance to win: 43% (the site’s model)

His week

Blue White Illustrated · 4,078 views by Wednesday

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 90th of 138 per play. Defense: 78th.

Offense, per play90thRunning offense125thDefense, per play78thPass defense10thWorstBest
Offense, per play90th of 138Running offense125th of 138Defense, per play78th of 138Pass defense10th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Penn State. The other two rows are where Penn State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Washington (5-3)FS143%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Minnesota (5-3)60%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Rutgers (2-6)87%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Maryland (2-6)81%

Percent: Penn State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Penn State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

6th12th18thPreseason11thMarshall W 45-0Marshall W 45-0W 45-0Marshall11thTemple W 27-9Temple W 27-9W 27-9Temple11thBuffalo W 55-13Buffalo W 55-13W 55-13Buffalo11thWisconsin L 20-24Wisconsin L 20-24L 20-24Wisconsin11thNorthwestern L 13-34Northwestern L 13-34L 13-34Northwestern11thUSC L 23-31USC L 23-31L 23-31USC12thMichigan L 18-21Michigan L 18-21L 18-21Michigan12thPurdue W 31-17Purdue W 31-17W 31-17Purdue12th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 31-17 vs. Purdue50 headlines · 7th of 138How did Penn State get here? Matt Campbell’s rebuild already faces a reckoning USA Today
  2. Oct 19–25No game23 headlines · 21st of 138Matt Campbell won’t bench Rocco Becht. Penn State fans deserve to know why USA Today“A Matter-Of-Fact Business”Matt Campbell Doubles Down On Penn State Football's Approach To Playing Time, Oct 20
  3. Oct 12–18L 18-21 at Michigan21 headlines · 20th of 138At midseason, Penn State under Matt Campbell lacks clear strengths, identity USA Today
  4. Oct 5–11L 23-31 vs. USC38 headlines · 6th of 138Watch the first Penn State football White Out for Matt Campbell vs USC USA Today
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 13-34 at Northwestern44 headlines · 8th of 138Penn State's humiliating loss to Northwestern shows Matt Campbell's rebuild of Nittany Lions just starting CBS Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 20-24 vs. Wisconsin16 headlines · 24th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Penn State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool94th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 115th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Power Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 83

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled96th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Penn State
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.