The Zeitgeist List · coaching

G.J. Kinne

Followed Jake Spavital. G.J. Kinne moved Texas State from Regional Program V to Regional Program III in 4 seasons.

23–16

2023–now · 1 stint

In his own words

Hopefully this game experience will help us moving forward because that (Texas) is a good team
The University Star · Sep 5, 2026 · the day of Texas State's 2026 opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Texas State, 4 seasons (active)

+8.5

Regional Program V → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Texas State5.6pt#220 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–2 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Michael Desormeaux.

Rivalry record

2–2

50.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

5–10

33.3% · margin ≤8

Buyout owed

$9,553,125

bigger than 51% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

UTSA2–250%

The toughest matchup

vs. Michael Desormeaux0–3

3 meetings, 2023–2025

’23 L · blew a 13-pt lead’24 L · blew a 6-pt lead’25 L · blew a 3-pt lead

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

0–1 0.0%

National Program

3–8 27.3%

Regional Program

15–6 71.4%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.61

#13 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.16

#71 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–now

Texas Statecaretaker

Regional Program V → Regional Program III

G.J. Kinne moved Texas State from Regional Program V to Regional Program III in 4 seasons.

1st-best Texas State tenure of 5 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+37.7 pts

#7 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

+13.4 pts

#54 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jake Spavital (2019–2022).

Season	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	8–5	8–5	7–6	0–0
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#97	#96	#101	#74
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.8	44.9	39.3	39.3
Coordinators
OC	Mack Leftwich	Mack Leftwich	Landon Keopple / Jordan Shoemaker	Landon Keopple / Jordan Shoemaker
DC	Jonathan Patke	Bradley Dale Peveto / Dexter McCoil	Bradley Dale Peveto / Dexter McCoil	Will Windham / Matthew Gregg
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	67	85	96	63
Defense	66	52	59	14
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	44.1	48.1	40.8	33.3
Red-zone pass%	35.8	41.2	38.7	26.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	52.6	32.5	43.9	—

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

119

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

101

left via the portal

Net portal flow

+18

#9 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 240 lbs

across 89 of 119 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+3.5 lbs

#132 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#179 of 255 · a typical amount

Top states: TX (48), FL (7), CA (6), GA (6), LA (4)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

57.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

57.2

position-weighted

Net

+0.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Malik Hornsby (QB) from Arkansas

Biggest loss: TJ Finley (QB) to Western Kentucky

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Mack Leftwich → Landon Keopple / co-Jordan Shoemaker · 2025the system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 46.1% → 37.1% (-9.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 93% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Jonathan Patke → co-Bradley Dale Peveto / Dexter McCoil · 2024

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

201 lbs

6′0″ avg · #671 of 767 · less than most

Running back

196 lbs

5′10″ avg · #740 of 791 · less than most

Wide receiver

180 lbs

5′11″ avg · #768 of 791 · less than most

Tight end

250 lbs

6′4″ avg · #200 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

316 lbs

6′5″ avg · #113 of 779 · more than most

Edge

241 lbs

6′3″ avg · #170 of 188 · less than most

Linebacker

224 lbs

6′2″ avg · #612 of 772 · less than most

Cornerback

186 lbs

6′1″ avg · #577 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys K via the portal

100%

#1 of 56 stints

Buys Linebacker via the portal

81%

#6 of 225 stints

Postseason detail2023: Beat Rice 45–21 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2024: Beat North Texas 30–28 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2025: Beat Rice 41–10 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Ismail Mahdi (2023)

23–16