Penn State at Washington
Penn State (4‑4) travels to Washington (5‑3), with Washington favored by 2.5. The model gives Washington a 64% shot. Penn State’s rushing offense is at the 26th percentile; Washington’s run defense is at the 80th.
How they got here
Last three games
Penn State · 4-4
Rated 46th in our preseason ratings, 44th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Washington · 5-3
Rated 26th in our preseason ratings, 32nd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Nebraska as a 7.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Penn State’s rushing EPA against Washington, 54 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Penn State’s rushing EPA against Washington’s defense
Penn State offense, 26th percentile · Washington defense, 80th
Penn State’s explosive plays against Washington’s defense
Penn State offense, 26th percentile · Washington defense, 62nd
Penn State’s EPA/play against Washington’s defense
Penn State offense, 50th percentile · Washington defense, 77th
What’s at stake
Penn State
- Penn State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 93% to get there with a win here, 63% with a loss.
- Penn State is coming off a 14-point win.
Washington
- Washington needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 87% with a loss.
- Washington is the Pacific Northwest's argument that contender altitude is a choice, not a geography.
The series
Penn State leads the series 4-0
4 meetings since 1921 · Penn State has won the last 4
- 2024Penn State 35-6
- 2017 · neutral sitePenn State 35-28
- 1983 · neutral sitePenn State 13-10
- 1921Penn State 21-7
Each line is Washington’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Penn State
The chip · vs big brotherFans will point to the scoreboard: a decade of being the Big Ten's clear third program behind Ohio State and Michigan, the two rivals who kept finding a way in the fourth quarter when Penn State couldn't. The standard was never the problem — clearing the team one rung up always was.
What this game touches
The 2025 free-fall and the firing it forced. Penn State opened 2025 ranked No. 2 with title aspirations, started 3-0, then lost in overtime to Oregon at home and dropped stunners to UCLA and Northwestern — a 22-21 home loss to the Wildcats sending the program to 3-3 and ending James Franklin's 12-year, 104-win tenure in October, the abrupt close to a decade defined by getting close and not closer.
Washington
The chip · vs the national mediaFans heard their 2023 run reframed the moment DeBoer left — that the season was a fluke of one coach and one quarterback, that the West Coast program would shrink back to the middle. They believe Husky Stadium on the water and the program's history say otherwise, and they're tired of having to re-prove it.
What this game touches
Losing the 2023 team all at once. Months after playing for the title, Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama, Michael Penix Jr. went to the NFL, and the roster scattered into a new conference. Jedd Fisch inherited a near-total rebuild and went 6-7 in the 2024 Big Ten debut before steadying to 9-4 in 2025 with a LA Bowl win over Boise State — progress, but still short of the 2023 ceiling.
Best players
Penn State
- Tony Rojas (LB) · 58 tackles
- Rocco Becht (QB) · 1,839 passing yards — Heisman odds: 18th (+5600)
- Kooper Ebel (LB) · 43 tackles
Washington
- Alex McLaughlin (S) · 57 tackles
- Chris Lawson (WR) · 638 receiving yards
- Jacob Manu (LB) · 44 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Washington fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (41st percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Washington favored by 2.5 · Total 44.5
Washington by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Washington’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Penn State at Washington · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FS1 · Husky Stadium.
- 61°feels like
- 4%average rain chance
- 5 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Husky Stadium: noon Saturdays score 97, 3:30 pm 94, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 97, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Washington is worth +3.8 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 42nd percentile.
76% at home, 55% on the road against FBS opponents (37-12 home, 21-17 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 2,219 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Washington
- Wk 4Lvs Minnesota24-27
- Wk 5Lat USC21-25
- Wk 6Lvs Iowa24-41
- Wk 7Wat Purdue38-26
- Wk 9Wat Nebraska17-10
Penn State
- Wk 4Lvs Wisconsin20-24
- Wk 5Lat Northwestern13-34
- Wk 6Lvs USC23-31
- Wk 7Lat Michigan18-21
- Wk 9Wvs Purdue31-17
Power rating by week
Washington is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Washington14th2-3
- Penn State16th1-4
Last meeting in our History pages
- Penn State 35, Washington 28Dec 30, 2017