Iowa State 45-42 West Virginia (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: West Virginia · Iowa State

West Virginia3-242

Iowa State3-245Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa · Crowd 52,724

Iowa State beat West Virginia 45-42.

We had Iowa State favored. It won.

Next: West Virginia lost to Arizona 52-31, Sat Oct 10

Next: Iowa State lost to BYU 24-10, Fri Oct 9

Top comment in the game thread

Almost heaven Central Iowa

Q4 1:09 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Flora 63-yd TD run, Iowa State goes ahead 38-35 (Q4, 6:08). Iowa State went from 44% to 77% to win. Fans right then: “Completely dreadful second half from the defense, we arr not sniffing a bowl game.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa State a 67% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

The edge changed hands 6 times before Iowa State won it.

Up to 65% in the first quarter, then West Virginia lost it.

Non-QB touchdown pass

Iowa State · Q2 11:04Non-QB touchdown pass

Iowa State · Q2 0:05

FinalIowa State 45-42 West VirginiaIowa State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 7:34Cook 8-yd TD run, West Virginia goes ahead 35-31Iowa State 69% → 43% (−26)
2Q4 6:08Flora 63-yd TD run, Iowa State goes ahead 38-35Iowa State 44% → 77% (+33)
3Q4 5:04Hawkins 47-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 42-38Iowa State 79% → 46% (−33)

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 7:34Cook 8-yd TD run, West Virginia goes ahead 35-31West Virginia 31% → 57% (+26)
2Q4 6:08Flora 63-yd TD run, Iowa State goes ahead 38-35West Virginia 56% → 23% (−33)
3Q4 5:04Hawkins 47-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 42-38West Virginia 21% → 54% (+33)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:04A double pass resulted in a touchdown.Love a good lil flea flickr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:17Officials rule pass interference on uncatchable flicker, giving Iowa State touchdownRefs are AWFUL today good lord that screwed WVU hardcorer/CFB game threadThis crew probably hasn’t heard of the uncatchable ruler/CFB game thread
Q4 8:41Completely dreadful second half from the defense, we arr not sniffing a bowl game.r/CFB game threadReally soft PI call there, wow.r/CFB game thread
Q4 2:54Fans argue over a pass interference call on Raynor's pass to JacksonTerrible PI callr/CFB game threadTwo yikes PI calls against WVU.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:09Officials overturn Epps catch, giving Iowa State ball with 52 seconds leftQuoted at the top of the page.Booth guy most hated dude in Iowa right now, lolr/CFB game thread

Iowa State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Iowa State -3), at 67% for Iowa State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Iowa State or West Virginia flair (790 and 567); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Iowa State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Iowa State scored on 7 of its 14 drives; West Virginia on 6 of its 14.

Iowa State’s drives are teal, West Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From West Virginia’s side

West Virginia’s best moment: Hawkins 47-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 42-38 (Q4 5:04). It lifted West Virginia’s win chance by 33 points.

How West Virginia fans took it: “Booth guy most hated dude in Iowa right now, lol” r/CFB game thread

“This is just classic Big 12 shootout”

A West Virginia fan

When fans got loud

Loud

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was busy.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Cannot believe they overturned that”

An Iowa State fan

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Iowa State fans

raynor“I love having 1.75 quarterbacks on the field! (Raynor is the 0.75, obviously)”

West Virginia fans

alley“Deport Zac Alley to the asteroid belt. I’m glad Ken Kendrick and Pat McAfee pushed so hard to get Rich back, we look great”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: pass, run, now, riot.

5 lead changes.

Box score

Iowa State 45, West Virginia 42

The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 87, went over 53.5.

Team totals	West Virginia	Iowa State
Total yards	518	577
Passing	11 of 23, 227 yds	21 of 29, 312 yds
Rushing	40 for 291 yds	47 for 265 yds
First downs	19	29
Third down	5 of 13	5 of 11
Fourth down	1 of 1	0 of 0
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	10 for 86 yds	7 for 60 yds
Time of possession	21:46	38:14

West Virginia leaders

Passing Michael Hawkins Jr. 11 of 23, 227 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Michael Hawkins Jr. 20 for 149 yds, 2 TD; Cam Cook 20 for 142 yds, 2 TD
Receiving DJ Epps 4 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Prince Strachan 3 for 41 yds

Iowa State leaders

Passing Jaylen Raynor 19 of 27, 264 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Aiden Flora 22 for 212 yds, 3 TD; Ryver Peppers 8 for 29 yds
Receiving Cody Jackson 6 for 160 yds, 1 TD; Dominic Overby 3 for 70 yds

No rain through the game

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Jack Trice Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 5:04 left2:05 p.m.

West Virginia 42, Iowa State 38 · Iowa State 46% to win

no rain · 71°

Hawkins 47-yd TD pass to Epps, West Virginia goes ahead 42-38

Measured at Ames airport, 1.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

West Virginia · 3-1

Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 150th now, up 32 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, including a 11-point win over Virginia as a 10.5-point underdog.

L 24-41 vs Oklahoma StateTop 25 #148 of 668

lost by 17 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 38-27 @ VirginiaTop 25 #50 of 668

won by 11 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 52-7 vs UT Martin #171 of 668

won by 45 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 31-24 vs Coastal Carolina #228 of 668

won by 7 as a 21-point favorite

Last 4 games

Iowa State · 2-2

Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 108th now, up 54 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-31 vs UtahTop 25 #23 of 668

lost by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 55-7 vs Bowling Green #152 of 668

won by 48 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-16 @ IowaTop 25 #17 of 668

lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog

W 38-10 vs Southeast Missouri State #232 of 668

won by 28 as a 29.5-point favorite

Week by week

Iowa State

Wk 1Wvs Southeast Missouri State38-10
Wk 2Lat Iowa13-16
Wk 3Wvs Bowling Green55-7
Wk 4Lvs Utah17-31

West Virginia

Wk 1Wvs Coastal Carolina31-24
Wk 2Wvs UT Martin52-7
Wk 3Wat Virginia38-27
Wk 4Lvs Oklahoma State24-41

Power rating by week

Iowa State is rated 3.1 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s explosive plays against West Virginia, 53 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Iowa State’s explosive plays against West Virginia’s defense
Iowa State offense, 72nd percentile · West Virginia defense, 19th
Iowa State’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense
Iowa State offense, 45th percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th
Iowa State’s EPA/play against West Virginia’s defense
Iowa State offense, 43rd percentile · West Virginia defense, 3rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

West VirginiaIowa State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 6-6

12 meetings since 2012 · Iowa State has won the last 2

2024Iowa State 28-16
2022Iowa State 31-14
2021West Virginia 38-31
2020Iowa State 42-6
2019Iowa State 38-14

Each line is Iowa State’s chance to win through that meeting. Iowa State is 3-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Iowa State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (64th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Iowa State favored by 3 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Iowa State by 3, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Iowa State.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 68° at kickoff.

West Virginia at Iowa State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Jack Trice Stadium, Ames

68°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
96weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Jack Trice Stadium that day, a 6 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 96 at 11 am.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 96, Comfortable (this game)
2:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
3:15 pm: 97, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal
6:45 pm: 97, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Iowa State is worth +3.9 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.

65% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 21-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 733 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Iowa State 30, West Virginia 14Oct 13, 2018

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Iowa State13th0-1
West Virginia12th0-1

Full Big 12 standings

Iowa State beats West Virginia 45-42