BYU 24-10 Iowa State (Oct 9, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Iowa State · BYU

Iowa State3-310

No. 8 BYU5-024Final

Fri, Oct 9 · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah · Crowd 64,632

No. 8 BYU beat Iowa State 24-10.

We had BYU favored. It won.

Next: Iowa State at Arizona, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Iowa State underdog by 10

Next: BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

3rd and long? Power run up the middle. 4th and short? PASS PASS PASS

Q3 5:41 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Oct 9

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave BYU a 95% chance, and the closing betting line (BYU was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.

Favored the whole way: BYU never fell below 84%.

Iowa State never had better than a 15% chance.

75-yard TD pass

BYU · Q3 1:09

FinalBYU 24-10 Iowa StateBYU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 7:37A player body-slammed another player and celebrated.Maybe don't body slam him behind you thor/CFB game thread
Q3 5:41BYU fans rip OC Arod for passing on 4th and 1 instead of runningPlease stop running 4th and short from the shotgun. We have a thicc boy QB. Put him under center and PUSH!r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 14:47BYU fans demand Tiger Bachmeier be benched after he muff a puntThat’s it, Tiger gotta get benchedr/CFB game thread
Q4 6:09Flora rushes for 21 yards as fans debate the hospital ball rulingProof flora would do better than Raynorr/CFB game thread

BYU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (BYU -11.5), at 85% for BYU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a BYU or Iowa State flair (1,650 and 1,299); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show BYU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

BYU scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Iowa State on 2 of its 11.

BYU’s drives are teal, Iowa State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“3rd and long? Power run up the middle. 4th and short? PASS PASS PASS”

A BYU fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans peaked in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

BYU fans

rod“I know we can do worse than A-rod, but surely we can do lots better right? Also I never want to see this team go for it with a lead ever again.”

tonight“"You peasants should be so grateful that a true Alabama fan is watching your game tonight"”

Iowa State fans

raynor“If cutting when you don’t need to was a competition Raynor would be a 4-time Heisman. Genuinely the stupidest person on the field”

pass“Imagine how good Flora would be if Raynor could pass. They can sell.out against the run every down.”

start“At this point the state of Iowa needs to start private high school charters dedicated to Punting.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, ball, now, run.

What it cost

BYU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 22% to 24%.

Make the playoff

Iowa State · lost0% → 0%

BYU · won22% → ▲24%

Win the conference

Iowa State · lost0% → 0%

BYU · won18% → ▲20%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

BYU 24, Iowa State 10

BYU covered −11.5 by 2.5. The total, 34, stayed under 46.5.

Team totals	Iowa State	BYU
Total yards	200	506
Passing	16 of 29, 98 yds	22 of 30, 329 yds
Rushing	27 for 102 yds	31 for 177 yds
First downs	14	18
Third down	2 of 13	4 of 10
Fourth down	1 of 2	0 of 3
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	6 for 27 yds	6 for 65 yds
Time of possession	27:17	32:43

Iowa State leaders

Passing Jaylen Raynor 16 of 29, 98 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Aiden Flora 17 for 86 yds; Jaylen Raynor 9 for 14 yds
Receiving Tyler Claiborne 3 for 31 yds; Tyler Fortenberry 3 for 22 yds

BYU leaders

Passing Bear Bachmeier 22 of 30, 329 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Bear Bachmeier 9 for 109 yds; Preston Rex 6 for 21 yds
Receiving Legend Glasker 5 for 99 yds, 1 TD; Roger Saleapaga 2 for 72 yds

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 58°, with about 7 in 10 games between 48° and 70°.

October game-day temperatures at LaVell Edwards Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:49 left8:31 p.m.

Iowa State 0, BYU 0 · BYU 85% to win

no rain · 74°

Bachmeier 8-yd pass to Glasker

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Provo Muni (awos) airport, 4.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Iowa State · 3-2

Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 112th now, up 50 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 45-42 vs West Virginia #158 of 668

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

L 17-31 vs UtahTop 25 #23 of 668

lost by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 55-7 vs Bowling Green #152 of 668

won by 48 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-16 @ IowaTop 25 #17 of 668

lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog

W 38-10 vs Southeast Missouri State #232 of 668

won by 28 as a 29.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

BYU · 4-0

Rated 9th in our preseason ratings, 9th now.

4 straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 17-10 @ TCU #41 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 41-23 @ Colorado State #76 of 668

won by 18 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 28-17 vs ArizonaTop 25 #27 of 668

won by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Utah Tech #224 of 668

won by 56 as a 50.5-point favorite

Week by week

BYU

Wk 1Wvs Utah Tech63-7
Wk 2Wvs Arizona28-17
Wk 3Wat Colorado State41-23
Wk 5Wat TCU17-10

Iowa State

Wk 1Wvs Southeast Missouri State38-10
Wk 2Lat Iowa13-16
Wk 3Wvs Bowling Green55-7
Wk 4Lvs Utah17-31
Wk 5Wvs West Virginia45-42

Power rating by week

BYU is rated 13.5 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against BYU, 65 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Iowa State’s success rate against BYU’s defense
Iowa State offense, 14th percentile · BYU defense, 79th
BYU’s rushing EPA against Iowa State’s defense
BYU offense, 98th percentile · Iowa State defense, 40th
BYU’s explosive plays against Iowa State’s defense
BYU offense, 30th percentile · Iowa State defense, 47th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Iowa StateBYU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Iowa State leads the series 5-1

6 meetings since 1968 · BYU won the last meeting

2025BYU 41-27
2023Iowa State 45-13
1974Iowa State 34-7
1973Iowa State 26-24
1969Iowa State 10-0

Each line is BYU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

BYU fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (52nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

BYU favored by 11.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

BYU by 11.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Iowa State.

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

BYU is worth +2.9 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 28th percentile.

75% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (33-11 home, 29-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,633 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 944 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

BYU3rd2-0
Iowa State8th1-1

Full Big 12 standings

No. 8 BYU beats Iowa State 24-10