Iowa State at Arizona
Iowa State (3‑3) travels to Arizona (#25, 5‑1), with Arizona favored by 10. The model gives Arizona a 81% shot. Iowa State’s offense is at the 71st percentile on explosive plays; Arizona’s defense is at the 2nd.
How they got here
Last three games
Iowa State · 3-3
Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 102nd now, up 60 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Arizona · 5-1
Rated 27th in our preseason ratings, 20th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against Arizona, 73 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Iowa State’s explosive plays against Arizona’s defense
Iowa State offense, 71st percentile · Arizona defense, 2nd
Iowa State’s success rate against Arizona’s defense
Iowa State offense, 14th percentile · Arizona defense, 87th
Iowa State’s passing EPA against Arizona’s defense
Iowa State offense, 45th percentile · Arizona defense, 85th
What’s at stake
Iowa State
- Iowa State needs 3 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 70% to get there with a win here, 35% with a loss.
- Iowa State is still shaking off a 14-point loss.
Arizona
- Arizona is ranked #25, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Brent Brennan is ahead of Jedd Fisch’s year-3 pace (5-1 vs. 3-3) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
Arizona leads the series 4-2-1
7 meetings since 1948 · Iowa State won the last meeting
- 2025Iowa State 39-14
- 1968Arizona 21-12
- 1966Arizona 27-24
- 1964Tie 0-0
- 1958Iowa State 14-0
Each line is Arizona’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Iowa State
The chip · vs big brotherThe chip is shaped like the team across the state — Iowa State fans are tired of being the little sibling in their own Cy-Hawk rivalry, the program everyone roots for but nobody fears. They wanted Campbell's era to flip that for good, and now they have to defend it all over again.
Arizona
The chip · vs the national mediaWildcat fans say the sport filed Arizona under 'Pac-12 survivor' the day the old league died and never updated the file — they say a 9-4 Big 12 season barely moved the needle, and the desert is tired of being treated as filler.
What this game touches
The 2024 crash that nearly cost a coach his job. After a 10-3 rise under Jedd Fisch, Arizona watched him leave for Washington, then collapsed to 4-8 in Brent Brennan's first season and its debut Big 12 year — the fanbase openly calling for a coaching change before the 2025 rebound made the question moot.
Best players
Iowa State
- Sullivan Schlimgen (LB) · 56 tackles
- Aiden Flora (RB) · 680 rushing yards
- Carson Willich (LB) · 36 tackles
Arizona
- Noah Fifita (QB) · 1,739 passing yards — Heisman odds: 48th (+18000)
- Taye Brown (LB) · 39 tackles
- Cooper Blomstrom (LB) · 30 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Jaylen Raynor (QB) — Iowa State’s leading passer (1,001 passing yards) takes on Arizona’s pass defense (85th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Arizona fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (86th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Arizona favored by 10 · Total 51.5
Arizona by 10: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Arizona’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Iowa State at Arizona · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7:30 pm ET · ESPN2 · Arizona Stadium.
- 73°feels like
- 1%average rain chance
- 15 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Arizona Stadium: noon Saturdays score 74, 3:30 pm 81, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 74, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 81, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Arizona is worth +3.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 37th percentile.
49% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (22-23 home, 14-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,165 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Arizona
- Wk 2Lat BYU17-28
- Wk 3Wvs Northern Illinois42-17
- Wk 4Wat Washington State34-24
- Wk 5Wvs Cincinnati34-7
- Wk 6Wat West Virginia52-31
Iowa State
- Wk 2Lat Iowa13-16
- Wk 3Wvs Bowling Green55-7
- Wk 4Lvs Utah17-31
- Wk 5Wvs West Virginia45-42
- Wk 6Lat BYU10-24
Power rating by week
Arizona is rated 10.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 1 point.
Total: 50.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Arizona7th2-1
- Iowa State11th1-2