CFB Zeitgeist Score
53
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 93rd percentile.
Chase Jenkins
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Chase Jenkins arrives at Rice with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
1,025PASS YDS9PASS TD531RUSH YDS
PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP
-23
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Kansas
2025Rice
2026Kansas
QB · RICE · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Chase Jenkins
- 2
- #4
- 6-0 | 191 lb
- Katy, TX
Heisman Heat
#2416
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025+925%
Up 925% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Rice
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8353 | No. 1769 recruit | HighSchool | Rice |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Rice -> Kansas | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (531).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Rice
Composite
0.8353
#1769 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Chase Jenkins
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Chase Jenkins
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 12g
1,025Pass yards
9Pass TDs
2INT
Per game
85.4Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
1,110Pass yards
10Pass TDs
2INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,025): needs 1,975/game over remaining 1.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,025): needs 2,975/game over remaining 1.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 16/game over remaining 1.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 21/game over remaining 1.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 9): needs 26/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Chase Jenkins's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Rice, he has 1,025 passing yards and 9 touchdown passes, but he also adds 531 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
119 68th
ATT
172 67th
CMP%
69.2% 81st
Y/A
6.0 31st
Passing Production
YDS
1,025 63rd
TD
9 71st
INT
2 52nd
Rushing
CAR
151 96th
YDS
531 93rd
YPC
3.5 59th
TD
5 86th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 14-12@ Louisiana | 7/9 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | |
| Wk 2 | L 9-35vs Houston | 10/12 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 4.2 | 17.0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 38-17vs Prairie View A&M | 10/16 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 5.4 | 39.6 | |
| Wk 4 | W 28-17@ Charlotte | 8/11 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 | 77.5 | |
| Wk 5 | L 13-21@ Navy | 12/21 | 114 | 1 | 0 | 5.4 | 30.6 | |
| Wk 6 | L 21-27vs Florida Atlantic | 12/17 | 137 | 1 | 0 | 8.1 | 59.0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-61@ UTSA | 1/3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 11.0 | 17.2 | |
| Wk 9 | W 37-34vs UConn | 17/22 | 191 | 1 | 0 | 8.7 | 42.8 | Season-high 191 yds |
| Wk 10 | L 14-38vs Memphis | 11/16 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 6.3 | 42.7 | |
| Wk 11 | W 24-17vs UAB | 11/15 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 2.7 | 22.3 | |
| Wk 13 | L 24-56vs North Texas | 14/21 | 101 | 1 | 0 | 4.8 | 73.4 | |
| Wk 14 | L 3-52@ South Florida | 6/9 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 4.3 | 23.2 | |
| Total | 119/172 | 1025 | 9 | 2 | 6.1 | 37.5 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Rice6-7HC: Mike Bloomgren · Balanced, slow tempo
2024Rice4-8HC: Mike Bloomgren · Pass-leaning
2025Rice5-8HC: Scott Abell · Run-heavy
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,025 | #142/382 | 63rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 9 | #117/407 | 71st pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 119 | #124/383 | 68th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 69.2% | #72/383 | 81st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.0 | #265/382 | 31st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 531 | #30/408 | 93rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.18 | #155/200 | 23rd pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 153 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 36.9% | #155/428 | 64th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 172 | #135/407 | 67th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 2 | #195/407 | 52nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 151 | #19/408 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 34 | #93/391 | 76th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 5 | #59/408 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.5 | #166/407 | 59th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 77.0% | #126/428 | 71st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 47.1% | #158/428 | 63rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 45.2% | #161/428 | 63rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 36.2% | #159/428 | 63rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 32.7% | #151/428 | 65th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 32.1% | #154/428 | 64th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 22.7% | #48/428 | 89th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.08 | #131/140 | 7th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 109 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 101 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 63.6 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 90.2 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 |
| Losses7g | 82.0 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 79.0 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 94.4 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
53Mid-pack
Elite: completion % (92nd). Strength: interceptions (92nd). Concern: yards / att (12th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds69%of completions
35 comp4.8 yds avg2 TD
Middle
10–19 yds18%of completions
9 comp11.7 yds avg
Deep
20+ yds14%of completions
7 comp30.7 yds avg1 TD
Overall 65.4% completion on 78 attempts.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.18Below (<p25) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.08Below (<p25) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Chase JenkinsRiceBrendon LewisMemphis· 69% simGunner StocktonGeorgia· 66% simAvery JohnsonKansas State· 65% sim
Completion %
Interceptions
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Yards / att
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Surgeon
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Asher O'Hara’s 2020 season.
Asher O'Hara
49%match
All-Conference USA
#2
Chandler Rogers
53%
#3
Skyler Locklear
51%
#4
Brady McBride
45%
#5
Jordan Yates
51%
Differs from Asher on
TD rate (higher)
INT rate (lower)
Class year (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Tommy Schuster’s path through Michigan State.
Tommy Schuster
77%match
#2
Adam Damante
70%
#3
Davis Warren
67%
#4
RJ Martinez
66%
#5
Asher O'Hara
All-Conference USA
64%
Matches Tommy on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Broc Lowry's junior season at Western Michigan (2025).
Broc Lowry
47%match
All-MAC
#2
Giovanni Lopez
45%
#3
Jaylen Raynor
All-Sun Belt
43%
#4
Bishop Davenport
40%
#5
Keyone Jenkins
38%
Matches Broc on
Height
Differs from Broc on
Weight (lower)
Yards / attempt (lower)
TD rate (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Scott Abell
Pass share
26.0%
224 pass / 636 run
Plays / game
66.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.6%
147 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Mike Bloomgren
Rice
2024
Mike Bloomgren
Rice
2025era →
Scott Abell
Rice
Coaching transition mid-career: Mike Bloomgren → Scott Abell. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownKaty, TX
Height6'0"
Weight191 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey4
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamRice
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.