UCF at Kansas
Kansas (3‑5) hosts UCF (4‑4). The market has Kansas favored by 2.5. The model gives Kansas a 63% shot. UCF’s offense is at the 37th percentile on success rate; Kansas’s defense is at the 84th.
How they got here
Last three games
UCF · 4-4
Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 79th now, up 24 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 8-point win over BYU as a 7.5-point underdog.
L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 No. 48 of 668 teams
lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog
Last three games
Kansas · 3-5
Rated 87th in our preseason ratings, 64th now, up 23 spots.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: UCF’s success rate against Kansas, 47 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UCF’s success rate against Kansas’s defense
UCF offense, 37th percentile · Kansas defense, 84th
UCF’s rushing EPA against Kansas’s defense
UCF offense, 34th percentile · Kansas defense, 73rd
Kansas’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
Kansas offense, 96th percentile · UCF defense, 74th
What’s at stake
UCF
- UCF needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 89% to get there with a win here, 53% with a loss.
- Scott Frost is behind Gus Malzahn’s year-2 pace (4-4 vs. 6-2) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
Kansas
- Kansas needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 46% to get there with a win here, 11% with a loss.
- Kansas hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
The series
Kansas leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2023 · Kansas has won the last 2
- 2025Kansas 27-20
- 2023Kansas 51-22
Each line is Kansas’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
UCF
The chip · vs the committeeThe 2017 snub is foundational scripture in Orlando: an undefeated team the system wouldn't even rank highest among one-loss blue bloods. Knights fans will tell you the banner is real, the title is theirs, and the committee can keep pretending otherwise.
What this game touches
Earning the seat, then struggling in it. UCF spent a decade demanding to be taken seriously and got its wish — a 2023 jump to the Big 12. But the Power-Four reality has been hard: a 4-8 first year, and a 5-7 (2-7) 2025 under returning architect Scott Frost that missed a bowl, the swagger running into a tougher schedule than the AAC ever offered.
Kansas
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of being told their school only cares from November to March — that football is a hobby in a basketball town. They point at the Orange Bowl banner and the Leipold revival and ask to be taken seriously between the whistles, too.
What this game touches
The long fall after the 2008 Orange Bowl. Kansas won the Orange Bowl to cap a 12-1 season in 2007, then collapsed into one of the bleakest stretches in major-college football — a decade-plus of double-digit losses before Lance Leipold arrived. The 2025 team's 5-7 finish, missing a bowl for a second straight year, was a reminder of how thin the margin still is.
Best players
UCF
- Tackett Curtis (LB) · 48 tackles
- Jahleel Culbreath (LB) · 41 tackles
- Duke Watson (RB) · 597 rushing yards
Kansas
- Trey Lathan (LB) · 55 tackles
- Corey Gordon (S) · 42 tackles
- Nik McMillan (WR) · 466 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Duke Watson (RB) — UCF’s leading rusher (597 rushing yards) takes on Kansas’s run defense (73rd percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
UCF fans are in a better mood than Kansas fans (37th percentile vs 24th among FBS fanbases), even with Kansas favored.
Kansas favored by 2.5 · Total 48.5
Kansas by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Kansas’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
UCF at Kansas · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:45 pm ET · ESPN2 · Memorial Stadium.
- 54°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 4 mphwind gusts
- 95weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 83, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 83, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Kansas is worth +3.2 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 32nd percentile.
39% at home, 21% on the road against FBS opponents (16-25 home, 10-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,076 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Kansas
- Wk 5Wvs Middle Tennessee55-0
- Wk 6Lat Utah24-41
- Wk 7Lat Kansas State24-35
- Wk 8Wvs Baylor25-24
- Wk 9Lat TCU16-22
UCF
- Wk 4Wvs TCU21-13
- Wk 5Lat Houston17-27
- Wk 6Lat Oklahoma State28-42
- Wk 8Wvs BYU39-31
- Wk 9Lvs Baylor9-41
Power rating by week
Kansas is rated 2.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.