BYU at UCF
UCF (3‑3) hosts BYU (#2, 6‑0). The market has BYU favored by 7. The model gives BYU a 64% shot. BYU’s offense is at the 30th percentile on explosive plays; UCF’s defense is at the 83rd.
How they got here
Last three games
BYU · 6-0
Rated 9th in our preseason ratings, 11th now.
Three straight wins, capped by a 4-point win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.
Last three games
UCF · 3-3
Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 68th now, up 35 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 8-point win over TCU as a 3.5-point underdog.
L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 #48 of 668
lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: BYU’s explosive plays against UCF, 53 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
BYU’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
BYU offense, 30th percentile · UCF defense, 83rd
UCF’s passing EPA against BYU’s defense
UCF offense, 34th percentile · BYU defense, 82nd
UCF’s success rate against BYU’s defense
UCF offense, 36th percentile · BYU defense, 79th
What’s at stake
BYU
- BYU sits at 27% to make the playoff — 33% with a win here, 16% with a loss.
- Kalani Sitake is ahead of Bronco Mendenhall’s year-11 pace (6-0 vs. 4-2) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
UCF
- UCF needs 3 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 82% to get there with a win here, 53% with a loss.
- Scott Frost is behind Gus Malzahn’s year-2 pace (3-3 vs. 5-1) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
BYU leads the series 4-1
5 meetings since 2011 · BYU has won the last 3
- 2025BYU 41-21
- 2024BYU 37-24
- 2020 · neutral siteBYU 49-23
- 2014UCF 31-24
- 2011BYU 24-17
Each line is UCF’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
BYU
The chip · vs the national mediaCougar fans have heard for years that the schedule was soft, that the faith makes the program a curiosity, that the wins came against nobody — and they say the 2025 Big 12 run answered all of it at once, on the field, against Power competition.
What this game touches
One game short of the breakthrough. The 2025 Cougars went 12-2, but a 34-7 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game ended the Playoff dream and the league-title chase in the same night — the closest BYU has come to validating the Big 12 move, and a reminder of exactly how much is left to finish.
UCF
The chip · vs the committeeThe 2017 snub is foundational scripture in Orlando: an undefeated team the system wouldn't even rank highest among one-loss blue bloods. Knights fans will tell you the banner is real, the title is theirs, and the committee can keep pretending otherwise.
What this game touches
Earning the seat, then struggling in it. UCF spent a decade demanding to be taken seriously and got its wish — a 2023 jump to the Big 12. But the Power-Four reality has been hard: a 4-8 first year, and a 5-7 (2-7) 2025 under returning architect Scott Frost that missed a bowl, the swagger running into a tougher schedule than the AAC ever offered.
Best players
BYU
- Legend Glasker (WR) · 444 receiving yards
- Cade Uluave (LB) · 35 tackles
- Bear Bachmeier (QB) · 1,257 passing yards — Heisman odds: 21st (+2500)
UCF
- Tackett Curtis (LB) · 39 tackles
- Duke Watson (RB) · 483 rushing yards
- Jahleel Culbreath (LB) · 30 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. BYU: Bear Bachmeier (1,257 passing yards); UCF: Duke Watson (483 rushing yards).
The spread has moved 2.5 points toward UCF since opening (+9.5 → +7).
The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (45.5 → 43.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
BYU fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (47th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
BYU favored by 7 · Total 43.5
BYU by 7: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
BYU’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm and windy. No coat needed. Rain is possible.
BYU at UCF · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · FOX · FBC Mortgage Stadium. Forecast rain: about 0.02 inch.
- 80°feels like
- 0.02 inforecast rain
- 26%average rain chance
- 32 mphwind gusts
- 88weather score, Mixed
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at FBC Mortgage Stadium: noon Saturdays score 71, 3:30 pm 76, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 71, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 76, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
UCF is worth +6.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 86th percentile.
74% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (35-12 home, 19-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.8 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,901 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
UCF
- Wk 2Lat Pittsburgh7-12
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia State44-30
- Wk 4Wvs TCU21-13
- Wk 5Lat Houston17-27
- Wk 6Lat Oklahoma State28-42
BYU
- Wk 2Wvs Arizona28-17
- Wk 3Wat Colorado State41-23
- Wk 5Wat TCU17-10
- Wk 6Wvs Iowa State24-10
- Wk 7Wvs Notre Dame28-24
Power rating by week
BYU is rated 9.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward UCF.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +9.5 → +7 · Total: 45.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.