CFB Zeitgeist Score
59
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 93rd percentile.
Thomas Castellanos
sonnet prose (cached)
2,760 PASS YDS · 15 PASS TD · 557 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Florida State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Florida State
Returning around him
- 13% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 1 Florida State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -21 net (22 in / 43 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Florida State · Last season: 5-7 (AP #25) · Talent rank #19 · 2026 recruiting class #19
QB · FLORIDA STATE · ACC
Thomas Castellanos
- 4
- #1
- 5-11 | 201 lb
- Waycross, GA
Heisman Heat
#751
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
42 windows · 2025 fan posts
extra×445.4denied×2227.1ncaa×106.0thomas×53.0florida×49.5
“Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos denied extra year, prepares to sue NCAA # Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos denied extra year, prepares to sue NCAA [Article Denying T.C.](”
reddit/fsusports · fan post, verbatim
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025+3580%
Up 3580% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boston College -> Florida State | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
| 2023 | UCF -> Boston College | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 2760 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (557).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Thomas Castellanos
Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window
Belief Meter
68
Quietly Bullish
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=34
- Rivals · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Thomas Castellanos
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)
+0.336
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 280 touches
National rank #30 of 57
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 280 touches 48th
Why it matters
#30 of 57 P4 + Notre Dame QBs in combined passing + rushing weighted-EPA per play — +0.336 EPA on 424 touches.
Vs cohort
This player +0.336 (48th)
HIGH · n=424 cohort 57
- Also strong
- WEPA per dropback#31 / 58
- Yards per attempt#6 / 72
- QB rushing weighted-EPA#12 / 46
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 12g
2,760Pass yards
15Pass TDs
9INT
Per game
230Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,990Pass yards
16Pass TDs
10INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 2,760): needs 240/game over remaining 1.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 2,760): needs 1,240/game over remaining 1.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 15): needs 10/game over remaining 1.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 15): needs 15/game over remaining 1.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 15): needs 20/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Thomas Castellanos's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Florida State, he has 2,760 passing yards and 15 touchdown passes, but he also adds 557 rushing yards and 9 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Vertical threat | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
180 77th
ATT
309 81st
CMP%
58.3% 37th
Y/A
8.9 86th
Passing Production
YDS
2,760 87th
TD
15 83rd
INT
9 12th
Rushing
CAR
137 94th
YDS
557 94th
YPC
4.1 66th
TD
9 95th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 31-17vs Alabama | 9/14 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 10.9 | 83.6 | |
| Wk 2 | W 77-3vs East Texas A&M | 8/11 | 237 | 3 | 0 | 21.5 | 95.4 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | W 66-10vs Kent State | 10/13 | 205 | 0 | 1 | 15.8 | 95.8 | |
| Wk 5 | L 38-46@ Virginia | 18/32 | 254 | 1 | 2 | 7.9 | 50.9 | |
| Wk 6 | L 22-28vs Miami | 25/45 | 272 | 2 | 2 | 6.0 | 63.8 | Season-high 272 yds |
| Wk 7 | L 31-34vs Pittsburgh | 16/23 | 245 | 3 | 0 | 10.7 | 74.7 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 8 | L 13-20@ Stanford | 14/28 | 242 | 0 | 0 | 8.6 | 41.2 | |
| Wk 10 | W 42-7vs Wake Forest | 12/16 | 271 | 1 | 0 | 16.9 | 88.5 | |
| Wk 11 | L 10-24@ Clemson | 23/43 | 250 | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 38.0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 34-14vs Virginia Tech | 12/24 | 189 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 | 84.0 | |
| Wk 13 | L 11-21@ NC State | 16/32 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 6.3 | 59.0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 21-40@ Florida | 17/28 | 240 | 2 | 1 | 8.6 | 66.6 | |
| Total | 180/309 | 2760 | 15 | 9 | 10.6 | 70.1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022UCF9-5HC: Gus Malzahn · Run-leaning, fast tempo
2023Boston College7-6HC: Jeff Hafley · Run-leaning
2025Florida State5-7HC: Mike Norvell · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | 180 | 309 | 58.3% | 2,760 | 8.9 | 15 | 9 | 143.5 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Boston College | 189 | 330 | 57.3% | 2,270 | 6.9 | 15 | 14 | 121.6 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | UCF | 9 | 16 | 56.2% | 75 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 95.6 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 378 | 655 | 57.7% | 5,105 | 7.8 | 30 | 23 | 131.3 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | 137 | 557 | 4.1 | 9 | -- |
| 2023 | Boston College | 215 | 1,113 | 5.2 | 13 | -- |
| 2022 | UCF | 14 | 120 | 8.6 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 366 | 1,790 | 4.9 | 23 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 2,760 | #50/382 | 87th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 15 | #71/407 | 83rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 180 | #90/383 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 58.3% | #243/383 | 37th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 8.9 | #53/382 | 86th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 557 | #27/408 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.32 | #62/200 | 70th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 311 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 50.2% | #81/428 | 81st pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 309 | #78/407 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 9 | #359/407 | 12th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 137 | #27/408 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 26 | #127/391 | 68th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 9 | #23/408 | 95th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.1 | #138/407 | 66th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 89.1% | #69/428 | 84th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 70.0% | #45/428 | 90th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 62.2% | #87/428 | 80th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 50.5% | #74/428 | 83rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 43.4% | #83/428 | 81st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 41.6% | #100/428 | 77th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 22.8% | #47/428 | 89th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.38 | #16/140 | 89th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 113 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 224 | 1.4 | 12.8 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 238 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 1.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 211 | 1.0 | 14.6 | 0.2 |
| Losses7g | 244 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 1.1 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 228 | 1.5 | 12.1 | 0.8 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 232 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
59Solid starter
Elite: yards / att (93rd). Strength: rush tds (86th). Concern: interceptions (21st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Reads as a mid-tier profile across the board..
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.32Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.38High (p75–p90) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Thomas CastellanosFlorida StateAlonza BarnettJames Madison· 87% simMarcel ReedTexas A&M· 84% simJake RetzlaffTulane· 83% sim
Yards / att
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Fumbles lost
Completion %
Interceptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Dual Threat
Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to John Rhys Plumlee’s 2023 season.
John Rhys Plumlee
68%match
#2
Jaylen Raynor
66%
#3
Dillon Gabriel
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 30
63%
#4
Parker Navarro
All-MAC
58%
#5
Diego Pavia
All-Conference USA
58%
Matches John on
Yards / attempt
TD rate
Height
Differs from John on
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Completion % (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Todd Centeio’s path through James Madison.
Todd Centeio
86%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Sam Ehlinger
All-Big 12NFL Rd 6
84%
#3
Brett Gabbert
All-MAC
83%
#4
Shai Werts
81%
#5
Tim DeMorat
77%
Matches Todd on
Yards per attempt
Completion %
Height
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to John Rhys Plumlee's senior season at UCF (2023).
John Rhys Plumlee
59%match
#2
Brett Gabbert
All-MAC
51%
#3
Garrett Greene
46%
#4
Parker Navarro
All-MAC
44%
#5
Rocco Becht
38%
Matches John on
Height
TD rate
Differs from John on
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Completion % (lower)
Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Norvell
Pass share
40.3%
339 pass / 502 run
Plays / game
70.1
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.5%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2023
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2025
Mike Norvell
Florida State
Played his entire career under Mike Norvell.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownWaycross, GA
Height5'11"
Weight201 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFlorida State
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2024)
All-ACC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-ACC | all_conference | Boston College | ACC | JOHN |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Boston College | QB4 | #751 | #628 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Boston College | QB4 | #108 | #218 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | ACC |
| 2022 | UCF | QB4 | #776 | #632 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 5-11 | 201 lb | Waycross, GA |
| 2024 | Boston College | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 5-11 | 201 lb | Waycross, GA |
| 2023 | Boston College | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 5-11 | 201 lb | Waycross, GA |
| 2022 | UCF | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 5-11 | 201 lb | Waycross, GA |