The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Joey McGuire

Followed Matt Wells. Joey McGuire moved Texas Tech from National Program II to Power Program III in 5 seasons.

35–18
2022–now · 1 stint
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In his own words

Starting with Will, he’s got to do a lot more than Q has as far as leading up to camp, and we don’t hit Will, so there’s a little bit of a difference there
On3 ·
I’m not going to lie, I was holding my breath
On3
I think Q has done a really good job
On3
I think Q’s moment is going to be more that first game
On3
One reason that we fell in love with him, minus all the athletic ability, is he is a football junkie
On3
Jacquies has done a phenomenal job of connecting
On3
He actually looks like Romello Height and David Bailey more than he looks like a guy that’s supposed to be a senior in high school
On3
We’ll buy our contract out of Abilene Christian
On3
We’ve all been in this together
FOX Sports
I’m not going to ever change that I’m going have my players’ backs
FOX Sports
It’s really easy to tell a mom or a dad that you’re going to be there to help their son grow into the man they’re supposed to be, and then all of a sudden, whenever adversity hits, or something like the situation we had, that you turn your back on them.
FOX Sports
I think he could be, I really do
Heartland College Sports
As a society, we’ve been okay with other things that happens and allowing players to play
Heartland College Sports
For some reason, as a society, we’ve been OK with other things that happen and allowing players to play, and this has been the one thing that has united people, that they were against
FOX Sports
And so, us even saying to the point before we get to the legal part, that he could be ready in Week 3 against Houston is still a stretch because guess what, he’s still recovering.
FOX Sports
He’s recovering from an addiction
Heartland College Sports
We’re willing to buy our contract out of ACU
Heartland College Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerTEXAS TECHPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyTexas Tech, 2022: 8-5, National Program II2022Texas Tech, 2023: 7-6, National Program II2023Texas Tech, 2024: 8-5, National Program I2024Texas Tech, 2025: 12-2, Power Program III2025Texas Tech, 2026: in progress, Power Program III2026+11.5One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 4th career season — faster than 37% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #215 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Texas Tech, 5 seasons (active)
+11.5
National Program II → Power Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Texas Tech2022–2026▼ 9.9pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Texas Tech11.2pt#104 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–4 against his rivals. Just 1–2 against Chris Klieman.

Rivalry record
3–4
42.9% · 3 rivals
One-score games
12–5
70.6% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$9,940,761 (est.)
bigger than 52% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Baylor1–233%
Texas1–150%
The toughest matchup
vs. Chris Klieman1–2
3 meetings, 2022–2025
’22 L’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead’25 W · erased a 7-pt deficit
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
5–9 35.7%
National Program
17–6 73.9%
Regional Program
6–2 75.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.01
#142 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.22
#54 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now
Texas Techcaretakerborderline
National Program II → Power Program III
Joey McGuire moved Texas Tech from National Program II to Power Program III in 5 seasons.

3rd-best Texas Tech tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+2.7 pts
#97 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+5.4 pts
#83 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Matt Wells (2019–2021).

Season20222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record8–57–68–512–20–0
PostseasonW bowlW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#43#28#25#48#18
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.149.853.347.042.2
Coordinators
OCZach KittleyZach KittleyZach KittleyMack LeftwichMack Leftwich
DCTim DeRuyterTim DeRuyterTim DeRuyterShiel WoodShiel Wood / Rob Greene
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense6131717543
Defense65631910077
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%55.846.548.049.346.7
Red-zone pass%46.154.854.548.839.1
4th-down go%opp. territory59.348.837.030.8
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
81
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
95
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-14
#65 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Austin Romaine On3 modeled · $1,000,000Adam Trick On3 modeled · $1,000,000Brendan Sorsby On3 modeled · $2,014,429Brice Pollock On3 modeled · $1,000,000Micah Hudson On3 modeled · $1,000,000Howard Sampson On3 modeled · $2,000,000Mateen Ibirogba On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 249 lbs
across 65 of 81 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+7.1 lbs
#49 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#12 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (19), FL (5), GA (5), MO (3), CA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
64.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.5
position-weighted
Net
+8.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Brendan Sorsby (QB) from Cincinnati
Biggest loss: Donovan Smith (QB) to Houston
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Shiel Wood → Shiel Wood / co-Rob Greene · 2026
100th pct77th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
219 lbs
6′3″ avg · #196 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
217 lbs
5′10″ avg · #90 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #110 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
257 lbs
6′6″ avg · #45 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
303 lbs
6′5″ avg · #613 of 779 · less than most
D-line
293 lbs
6′3″ avg · #202 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
249 lbs
6′3″ avg · #2 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #105 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
67%
#23 of 188 stints
Grows Running back from high school
75%
#162 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat Ole Miss 42–25 TaxAct Texas Bowl2023: Beat California 34–14 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl2024: Lost to Arkansas 26–39 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2025: Lost to Oregon 0–23 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Erik Ezukanma (2022), Dawson Deaton (2022), Tyree Wilson (2023), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (2024), Myles Cole (2024), Caleb Rogers (2025), Tahj Brooks (2025), David Bailey (2026) + 8 more

5 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Tyree Wilson (2022), David Bailey (2025), Lee Hunter (2025), Jacob Rodriguez (2025), Terrance Carter Jr. (2026)

AI Narratives — “Texas Tech's 2025 Season: A Mix of Highs and Lows” and 13 more on the team page.

35–18