Texas Tech: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2022–now

Joey McGuire Steady≈

Joey McGuire moved Texas Tech from National Program II to Power Program III in 5 seasons.

2025 defense ranked in the 100th percentile nationally — elite

+11.5 pts over 5 seasons · top 4% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Tedford’s Fresno State run (2017–2019, 2022–2023)

3rd-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Matt Wells (2019–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	8-5	7-6	8-5	12-2	7-1
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	CFP loss	—
Recruiting rank	#43	#28	#25	#48	#18
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	52.1	49.8	53.3	47.0	43.1
Coordinators
OC	Zach Kittley	Zach Kittley	Zach Kittley	Mack Leftwich	Mack Leftwich
DC	Tim DeRuyter	Tim DeRuyter	Tim DeRuyter	Shiel Wood	Shiel Wood / Rob Greene
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	61	31	71	75	59
Defense	65	63	19	100	83
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	55.8	46.5	48.0	49.3	46.8
Red-zone pass%	46.1	54.8	54.5	48.8	34.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	59.3	48.8	37.0	30.8	36.7

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+2.7 pts

#98 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+5.7 pts

#77 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.2★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-14

#65 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Austin Romaine On3 modeled · $1,000,000Adam Trick On3 modeled · $1,000,000Brendan Sorsby On3 modeled · $2,014,429Brice Pollock On3 modeled · $1,000,000Micah Hudson On3 modeled · $1,000,000Howard Sampson On3 modeled · $2,000,000Mateen Ibirogba On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 249 lbs

across 65 of 81 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.4 lbs

#50 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#114 of 255 · middle half

Top states: TX (19), FL (5), GA (5), MO (3), CA (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

64.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.5

position-weighted

Net

+8.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Brendan Sorsby (QB) from Cincinnati

Biggest loss: Donovan Smith (QB) to Houston

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Shiel Wood → Shiel Wood / Rob Greene (co) · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

219 lbs

6′3″ avg · #196 of 767 · middle half

Running back

217 lbs

5′10″ avg · #90 of 791 · top quarter

Wide receiver

200 lbs

6′1″ avg · #110 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

257 lbs

6′6″ avg · #45 of 731 · top quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

303 lbs

6′5″ avg · #613 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

293 lbs

6′3″ avg · #202 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

249 lbs

6′3″ avg · #2 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

196 lbs

6′0″ avg · #105 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Tight end via the portal

67%

#23 of 188 stints

Grows Running back from high school

75%

#162 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2022: Beat Ole Miss 42-25 TaxAct Texas Bowl2023: Beat California 34-14 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl2024: Lost to Arkansas 26-39 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2025: Lost to Oregon 0-23 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Tyree Wilson (2023), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (2024), Myles Cole (2024), Caleb Rogers (2025), Tahj Brooks (2025), David Bailey (2026), Jacob Rodriguez (2026), Lee Hunter (2026) + 6 more

4 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Tyree Wilson (2022), David Bailey (2025), Lee Hunter (2025), Jacob Rodriguez (2025)

AI Narratives — “Texas Tech's Offseason Moves Reflect Dynasty Aspirations” and 16 more on the team page.

+11.5

42-19

2021

Sonny Cumbie Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

2-3

2019–2021

Matt Wells Steady

Matt Wells held the Red Raiders at National Program II for 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−1.6 pts over 3 seasons · top 41% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Horton’s UNLV run (1994–1998)

12th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Kliff Kingsbury (2013–2018) · succeeded by Sonny Cumbie (2021).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	4-8	4-6	5-3
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#61	#49	#64
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	56.8	54.0	47.1
Coordinators
OC	David Yost	David Yost	Sonny Cumbie
DC	Keith Patterson	Derek Jones / Keith Patterson	Derek Jones / Keith Patterson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	54	41	77
Defense	17	48	24
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	58.9	54.0	40.4
Red-zone pass%	39.6	35.3	37.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	38.3	50.0	43.8

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+5.4 pts

#85 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-22.5 pts

#182 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-5

#112 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 217 lbs

across 7 of 11 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+11.9 lbs

#2 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: FL (2), CA (1), TX (1), NC (1), TN (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

31.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

43.6

position-weighted

Net

-12.2

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Malik Dunlap (CB) from NC State

Biggest loss: Alan Bowman (QB) to Michigan

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Keith Patterson → Derek Jones (co) / Keith Patterson · 2020

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

223 lbs

6′4″ avg · #114 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

224 lbs

5′11″ avg · #15 of 791 · top quarter

Wide receiver

199 lbs

6′1″ avg · #148 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

248 lbs

6′6″ avg · #264 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

D-line

286 lbs

6′3″ avg · #336 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

236 lbs

6′2″ avg · #79 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

200 lbs

6′0″ avg · #22 of 771 · top quarter

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Linebacker via the portal

67%

#23 of 225 stints

Buys Athlete via the portal

20%

#24 of 146 stints

Grows Wide receiver from high school

83%

#220 of 243 stints

6 NFL Draft picks: Jordyn Brooks (2020), Broderick Washington Jr (2020), Zech McPhearson (2021), Jack Anderson (2021), Erik Ezukanma (2022), Dawson Deaton (2022)

−1.6

13-17

2013–2018

Kliff Kingsbury Steady

Kliff Kingsbury slid the Red Raiders from National Program I to National Program II in 6 seasons.

Averaged a 59% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

−4.6 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 24% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dirk Koetter’s Arizona State run (2001–2006)

6th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Tommy Tuberville (2010–2012) · succeeded by Matt Wells (2019–2021).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Record & result
Record	8-5	4-8	7-6	5-7	6-7	5-7
Postseason	W bowl	—	L bowl	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#46	#40	#32	#44	#49	#72
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	62.9	61.2	57.2	62.7	54.1	55.0
Coordinators
OC	—	Eric Morris	Eric Morris	Eric Morris	Eric Morris	Kevin Johns / Clay McGuire
DC	—	Matt Wallerstedt (2nd season; first 3 games) / Mike Smith	David Gibbs / Mike Smith	David Gibbs	David Gibbs	David Gibbs / Zac Spavital
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	77	83	86	78	63	42
Defense	56	4	0	3	48	43
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	55.9	54.6	51.7	62.1	51.3	53.2
Red-zone pass%	51.3	53.7	35.4	49.4	43.7	42.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	26.3	40.5	33.3	38.5	30.8	23.7

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+13.1 pts

#55 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-30.1 pts

#197 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Eric Morris → Kevin Johns / Clay McGuire (co) · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 51.3% → 53.2% (+1.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 16% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Matt Wallerstedt (2nd season; first 3 games) / Mike Smith (co) → David Gibbs / Mike Smith (co) · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: David Gibbs / Mike Smith (co) → David Gibbs · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: David Gibbs → David Gibbs / Zac Spavital (co) · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2013: Beat Arizona State 37-23 National University Holiday Bowl2015: Lost to LSU 27-56 Advocare V100 Texas Bowl2017: Lost to South Florida 34-38 Birmingham Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Jace Amaro (2014), Will Smith (2014), Le'Raven Clark (2016), Deandre Washington (2016), Jakeem Grant (2016), Patrick Mahomes (2017), Keke Coutee (2018), Dylan Cantrell (2018) + 1 more

−4.6

35-40

2010–2012

Tommy Tuberville Steady

Tommy Tuberville slid Texas Tech from Power Program III to National Program I in 3 seasons.

Averaged a 60% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

−8.3 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 19% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Buddy Teevens’s Tulane run (1992–1996)

4th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Leach (2000–2009) · succeeded by Kliff Kingsbury (2013–2018).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2010	2011	2012
Record & result
Record	8-5	5-7	7-5
Postseason	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#37	#19	#28
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	58.5	60.5	59.8
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	75	67	98
Defense	30	8	40
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	58.4	59.4	65.2
Red-zone pass%	54.7	46.8	62.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	39.0	36.1	33.3

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2010: Beat Northwestern 45-38 Ticketcity Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Baron Batch (2011)

−8.3

20-17

2000–2009

Mike Leach Builder≈

Mike Leach raised Texas Tech from National Program II to Power Program III.

Averaged a 70% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

+12.5 pts over 10 seasons · top 47% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame run (2010–2021)

1st-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Spike Dykes (1986–1999) · succeeded by Tommy Tuberville (2010–2012).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Record & result
Record	7-6	7-5	9-5	8-5	8-4	9-3	8-5	9-4	11-2	8-4
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	#39	#38	#28	#42	#75	#39
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	69.0	65.6	74.8	75.6	67.6	67.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	97	99	95	95	100	85
Defense	—	—	—	—	52	51	32	78	3	63
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	65.1	68.0	74.7	79.3	71.5	68.0
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	62.2	66.1	67.8	74.8	60.9	57.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	55.9	35.1	43.8	55.6	50.0	54.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2000: Lost to East Carolina 27-40 Bowl2001: Lost to Iowa 16-19 Bowl2002: Beat Clemson 55-15 Bowl2003: Beat Navy 38-14 Bowl2004: Beat California 45-31 Bowl2005: Lost to Alabama 10-13 AT&T Cotton Bowl2006: Beat Minnesota 44-41 Bowl2007: Beat Virginia 31-28 Bowl2008: Lost to Ole Miss 34-47 Cotton Bowl

18 NFL Draft picks: Kris Kocurek (2001), Kevin Curtis (2002), Aaron Hunt (2003), Kliff Kingsbury (2003), Carlos Francis (2004), B.J. Symons (2004), Dylan Gandy (2005), Daniel Loper (2005) + 10 more

+12.5

84-43

1986–1999

Spike Dykes Steady≈

Spike Dykes moved Texas Tech from Regional Program I to National Program II in 14 seasons.

+10.3 pts over 14 seasons · bottom 42% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Les Miles’s LSU run (2005–2016)

9th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jerry Moore (1981–1985) · succeeded by Mike Leach (2000–2009).

Season	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
Record & result
Record	0-1	6-4-1	5-6	9-3	4-7	6-5	5-6	6-6	6-6	9-3	7-5	6-5	7-5	6-5
Postseason	L bowl	—	—	W bowl	—	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1986: Lost to Ole Miss 17-20 Bowl1989: Beat Duke 49-21 Bowl1993: Lost to Oklahoma 10-41 Bowl1994: Lost to USC 14-55 Bowl1995: Beat Air Force 55-41 Bowl1996: Lost to Iowa 0-27 Bowl1998: Lost to Ole Miss 18-35 Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Roland Mitchell (1987), Timmy Smith (1987), Billy Joe Tolliver (1989), James Gray (1990), Sammy Walker (1991), Bam Morris (1994), Lloyd Hill (1994), Derrell Mitchell (1994) + 6 more

+10.3

82-67-1

1981–1985

Jerry Moore Steady

Jerry Moore slid the Red Raiders from National Program II to Regional Program I in 5 seasons.

−9.6 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brent Venables’s Oklahoma run (2022–now)

13th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Rex Dockery (1978–1980) · succeeded by Spike Dykes (1986–1999).

6 NFL Draft picks: Gabriel Rivera (1983), Stan David (1984), Dwayne Jiles (1985), Joe Walter (1985), Tim Crawford (1986), Carl Carter (1986)

−9.6

16-37-2

1978–1980

Rex Dockery Steady

Rex Dockery slid Texas Tech from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

−5.5 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 34% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Don Treadwell’s Miami (OH) run (2011–2013)

7th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Sloan (1975–1977) · succeeded by Jerry Moore (1981–1985).

3 NFL Draft picks: James Hadnot (1980), Larry Flowers (1980), Ted Watts (1981)

−5.5

15-16-2

1975–1977

Steve Sloan Steady

Steve Sloan moved the Red Raiders from National Program II to National Program I in 3 seasons.

+6.0 pts over 3 seasons · top 12% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Butch Jones’s Central Michigan run (2007–2009)

5th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Carlen (1970–1974) · succeeded by Rex Dockery (1978–1980).

Season	1975	1976	1977
Record & result
Record	6-5	10-2	7-5
Postseason	—	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1976: Lost to Nebraska 24-27 Bowl1977: Lost to Florida State 17-40 Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Curtis Jordan (1976), Thomas Howard (1977), Tommy Duniven (1977), Billy Taylor (1978), Eric Felton (1978), Jim Krahl (1978)

+6.0

23-12

1970–1974

Jim Carlen Steady

Jim Carlen moved Texas Tech from National Program III to National Program II in 5 seasons.

+3.6 pts over 5 seasons · top 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Butch Jones’s Cincinnati run (2010–2012)

11th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed J.T. King (1961–1969) · succeeded by Steve Sloan (1975–1977).

Season	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974
Record & result
Record	8-4	4-7	8-4	11-1	6-4-2
Postseason	L bowl	—	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1970: Lost to Georgia Tech 9-17 Bowl1972: Lost to North Carolina 28-32 Bowl1973: Beat Tennessee 28-19 Bowl1974: Tied Vanderbilt 6-6 Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Andre Tillman (1974), Lawrence Williams (1975)

+3.6

37-20-2

1961–1969

J.T. King Steady

J.T. King held the Red Raiders at National Program III for 9 seasons.

−3.8 pts over 9 seasons · bottom 28% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tyrone Willingham’s Stanford run (1995–2001)

14th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed DeWitt Weaver (1951–1960) · succeeded by Jim Carlen (1970–1974).

−3.8

44-45-3

1951–1960

DeWitt Weaver Steady≈

DeWitt Weaver moved the Red Raiders from National Program II to Power Program III in 10 seasons.

+11.7 pts over 10 seasons · bottom 49% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Stoops’s Kentucky run (2013–2025)

2nd-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Dell Morgan (1946–1950) · succeeded by J.T. King (1961–1969).

+11.7

49-51-5

1946–1950

Dell Morgan Steady

Dell Morgan held Texas Tech at National Program II for 5 seasons.

+1.6 pts over 5 seasons · top 25% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Quinn’s Buffalo run (2010–2014)

10th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Succeeded by DeWitt Weaver (1951–1960).

+1.6

31-24

1936–1940

Pete Cawthon Steady

Pete Cawthon held Texas Tech at National Program II for 5 seasons.

8th-best Texas Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

National Program II

37-15-3