CFB Zeitgeist Score
86
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 100th percentile.
David Bailey
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
51 TACKLES · 14.5 SACKS
Where He Ended Up · NFL
New York2026 NFL rookie season
#2Rd 1 · Pick 2
New York2026 NFL rookie season
LB · TEXAS TECH · BIG 12
David Bailey
- 4
- #31
- 6-3 | 250 lb
- Irvine, CA
Heisman Heat
#9046
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP LB AWARD
Butkus
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR04 · Rotational
Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
4 seasons on the ladder
2022
Stanford · LB
—
2023
Stanford · LB
—
2024
Stanford · LB
—
★
2025
Texas Tech · LB
R14 · Unanimous All-American
Elite
NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 1, Pick 2 · #2 overall · New York
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
R1 · #2
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9718 | No. 66 recruit | HighSchool | Stanford |
| 2020 | 2-star | 0.7956 | No. 3023 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Honors Badge 0.7% Honors Badge Recognized on a major honors list (Heisman, All-American, Davey O'Brien, Maxwell, Walter Camp, Nagurski, Biletnikoff). Held by 0.7% of the 2025 pool. Recognized on: All-America (AFCA).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Named Consensus All-American — recognized on 3+ of the 5 NCAA-recognized selector lists.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Stanford
Composite
0.9718
#66 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 1, Pick 2
#2 overall · New York
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on David Bailey
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about David Bailey
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 14g
51Tackles
19.5Tackles for loss
14.5Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
1.4Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Final
51Tackles
19.5Tackles for loss
14.5Sacks
✓ Hit 6-sack season · finished with 14.5.
✓ Hit 10-sack season · finished with 14.5.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
David Bailey is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Texas Tech's defense, with 14.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
51 88th
SOLO
32 90th
TFL
19.5 100th
SACK
14.5 100th
QBH
10 99th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
3 76th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 14 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 67-7vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | Season-high 9 tackles |
| Wk 2 | W 62-14vs Kent State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 45-14vs Oregon State | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 34-10@ Utah | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | W 35-11@ Houston | 3 | 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | — | 0 | 2 sacks |
| Wk 7 | W 42-17vs Kansas | 6 | 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | — | 0 | 3 sacks |
| Wk 8 | L 22-26@ Arizona State | 5 | 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | — | 0 | 2 sacks |
| Wk 9 | W 42-0vs Oklahoma State | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 43-20@ Kansas State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | W 29-7vs BYU | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 12 | W 48-9vs UCF | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 49-0@ West Virginia | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 15 | W 34-7vs BYU | 5 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | L 0-23vs Oregon | 9 | 5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | 2 | |
| Total | 51 | 32 | 19.5 | 14.5 | — | 3 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Stanford3-9HC: David Shaw · Balanced
2023Stanford3-9HC: Troy Taylor · Balanced
2024Stanford3-9HC: Troy Taylor · Run-leaning
2025Texas Tech12-2HC: Joey McGuire · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas Tech | 51 | 32 | 19.5 | 14.5 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Stanford | 31 | 22 | 8.0 | 6.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Stanford | 31 | 19 | 6.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Stanford | 43 | 28 | 7.5 | 1.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 156 | 101 | 41.0 | 27.0 | 3 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 51 | #579/4942 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 19.5 | #2/4972 | 100th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 14.5 | #1/4972 | 100th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 3 | #521/2184 | 76th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 10 | #19/1878 | 99th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 32 | #448/4584 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
UNANIMOUS AA
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
UNANIMOUS AA · Rung 14 of 16
Why he’s here
Unanimous All-American — 1st team on all five NCAA-recognized selectors.
What moves him up
The only step up is a Player-of-the-Year invite.
What moves him down
Losing a selector drops this to Consensus.
Accolade streams
All-America statusCONSENSUS
Named Consensus All-American — recognized on 3+ of the 5 NCAA-recognized selector lists.
AP1st
FWAA1st
AFCA1st
WCFF1st
SN1st
SI1st
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 14 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home9g | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins12g | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Losses2g | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the LB cohort
86All-Conference
Elite: sacks (99th). Strength: tackles for loss (99th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · LB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
David BaileyTexas TechJohn MillerUtah State· 91% simRasheem BilesPittsburgh· 91% simSammy BrownClemson· 90% sim
Sacks
Tackles for loss
QB hurries
Solo tackles
Tackles
Passes defended
Forced fumbles
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Thumper
Downhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge.
LB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Trey Moore’s 2023 season.
Trey Moore
85%match
All-AACNFL Rd 4
#2
Andrew Chatfield Jr.
61%
#3
Colin Simmons
61%
#4
PJ Ramsey
All-Mountain West
50%
#5
Harvey Dyson III
48%
Matches Trey on
Tackle volume
Weight
TFL rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Nadame Tucker's senior season at Western Michigan (2025).
Nadame Tucker
85%match
All-MAC
#2
Jimmori Robinson
All-AAC
74%
#3
Malachi Lawrence
All-Big 12NFL Rd 1 · Pk 23
62%
#4
Gabe Jacas
All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 23
62%
#5
Josaiah Stewart
All-Big TenNFL Rd 3 · Pk 26
61%
Matches Nadame on
Class year
TFL rate
Tackle volume
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Joey McGuire
Pass share
47.6%
484 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
72.6
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
336 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
2023
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
2024
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
2025
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
Played his entire career under Joey McGuire.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownIrvine, CA
Height6'3"
Weight250 lb
Class4
PositionLB
Jersey31
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTexas Tech
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🏆
ALL-AMERICA · CONSENSUS
Consensus AA (2025)
11 first-team selectors
🥈
ALL-CONFERENCE · 1ST TEAM
All-Conf 1st team (2025)
All-Big 12
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
12 All-America selections
National selector recognition is one of the strongest non-Heisman signals on a player card and should sit near the top of the showcase.
2 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big 12 | all_conference | Texas Tech | Big 12 | DE |
| 2025 | All-Big 12 | all_conference | Texas Tech | Big 12 | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (WCFF) | all_america | WCFF | LB |
| 2025 | All-America (USA Today) | all_america | USA Today | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (SI) | all_america | SI | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (PFF) | all_america | PFF | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (ESPN) | all_america | ESPN | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (CBS) | all_america | CBS | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (The Athletic) | all_america | The Athletic | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (SN) | all_america | SN | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (FWAA) | all_america | FWAA | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (AP) | all_america | AP | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (AFCA) | all_america | AFCA | DL |
| 2025 | All-America (Consensus) | all_america | Texas Tech | Consensus | -- |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | LB | 4 | No. 31 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Irvine, CA |
| 2024 | Stanford | ACC | LB | 4 | No. 31 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Irvine, CA |
| 2023 | Stanford | Pac-12 | LB | 4 | No. 31 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Irvine, CA |
| 2022 | Stanford | Pac-12 | LB | 4 | No. 31 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Irvine, CA |