The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Kliff Kingsbury

Followed Tommy Tuberville. Kliff Kingsbury held Texas Tech at National Program I for 6 seasons.

35–40

2013–2018 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Texas Tech, 6 seasons

−4.1

National Program I → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Texas Tech8.6pt#163 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–13 against his rivals. Just 1–5 against Bill Snyder.

Rivalry record

5–13

27.8% · 3 rivals

One-score games

9–15

37.5% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–2

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Oklahoma State1–517%

Texas2–433%

Baylor2–433%

The toughest matchupNemesis

vs. Bill Snyder1–5

6 meetings, 2013–2018

’13 L’14 L’15 W · wire to wire’16 L · blew a 7-pt lead’17 L · blew a 11-pt lead’18 L · blew a 6-pt lead

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–2 0.0%

Power Program

10–31 24.4%

National Program

6–5 54.5%

Regional Program

13–2 86.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.30

#55 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

-0.39

#312 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2018

Texas Techcaretaker

National Program I → National Program I

Kliff Kingsbury held Texas Tech at National Program I for 6 seasons.

6th-best Texas Tech tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+13.1 pts

#57 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-30.3 pts

#199 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tommy Tuberville (2010–2012) · succeeded by Matt Wells (2019–2021).

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Record & result
Record	8–5	4–8	7–6	5–7	6–7	5–7
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	#40	#32	#44	#49	#72
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	61.2	57.2	62.7	54.1	55.0
Coordinators
OC	—	Eric Morris	Eric Morris	Eric Morris	Eric Morris	Kevin Johns / Clay McGuire
DC	—	Mike Smith / Matt Wallerstedt (2nd season; first 3 games)	David Gibbs / Mike Smith	David Gibbs	David Gibbs	David Gibbs / Zac Spavital
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	83	86	78	63	42
Defense	—	4	0	3	48	43
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	—	54.6	51.7	62.1	51.3	53.2
Red-zone pass%	—	53.7	35.4	49.4	43.7	42.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	40.5	33.3	38.5	30.8	23.7

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Eric Morris → Kevin Johns / co-Clay McGuire · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 51.3% → 53.2% (+1.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 16% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: co-Mike Smith / Matt Wallerstedt (2nd season; first 3 games) → David Gibbs / co-Mike Smith · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: David Gibbs / co-Mike Smith → David Gibbs · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: David Gibbs → David Gibbs / co-Zac Spavital · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2015: Lost to LSU 27–56 Advocare V100 Texas Bowl2017: Lost to South Florida 34–38 Birmingham Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Jace Amaro (2014), Will Smith (2014), Le'Raven Clark (2016), Deandre Washington (2016), Jakeem Grant (2016), Patrick Mahomes (2017), Keke Coutee (2018), Dylan Cantrell (2018) + 1 more

35–40