The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Les Miles

Followed David Beaty. Les Miles held Kansas at Regional Program IV for 2 seasons.

Peak, then fade
145–73
2001–2020 · 3 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 5th career season — faster than 35% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #58 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Oklahoma State, 4 seasons
+8.0
Regional Program I → National Program II.
LSU, 12 seasons
+10.3
Blue Blood → Blue Blood.
Kansas, 2 seasons
−0.3
Regional Program IV → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%LSU2005–2016▲ 8.6ptKansas2019–2020▼ 6.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
LSU8.6pt#161 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

30–23 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Mack Brown.

Rivalry record
30–23
56.6% · 8 rivals
One-score games
45–29
60.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–6
14.3%
Rivalry ledger
Alabama5–742%
Ole Miss7–464%
Arkansas6–555%
Texas A&M5–0100%
Texas Tech1–325%
Oklahoma2–250%
Tulane4–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Mack Brown0–4
4 meetings, 2001–2004
’01 L’02 L’03 L’04 L
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
1–6 14.3%
Blue Blood
12–8 60.0%
Power Program
40–32 55.6%
National Program
29–18 61.7%
Regional Program
46–6 88.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.26
#253 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.12
#234 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2019–2020
Kansascaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Les Miles held Kansas at Regional Program IV for 2 seasons.

21st-best Kansas tenure of 21 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-29.2 pts
#198 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-33.5 pts
#201 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed David Beaty (2015–2018) · succeeded by Lance Leipold (2021–2026).

Season20192020Trend
Record & result
Record3–90–9
Postseason
Recruiting rank#70#57
Style — pass rate
Pass rate50.444.4
Coordinators
OCBrent DearmonBrent Dearmon
DCD. J. EliotD. J. Eliot
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense380
Defense922
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.041.2
Red-zone pass%42.361.1
4th-down go%opp. territory25.042.9
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Grows Wide receiver from high school
100%
#230 of 243 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Hakeem Adeniji (2020)

3–18
2005–2016
LSUsustainerborderline
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Les Miles kept LSU a national power for 12 seasons.

1st-best LSU tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+13.6 pts
#54 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+12.9 pts
#60 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Nick Saban (2000–2004).

Season200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record11–211–212–28–59–411–213–110–310–38–59–36–2
PostseasonL bowlW bowlW CFP
Recruiting rank#2#5#2
Style — pass rate
Pass rate30.835.539.4
Coordinators
OCCam CameronCam CameronCam Cameron
DCJohn ChavisKevin SteeleDave Aranda
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense508980
Defense917193
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%25.229.936.0
Red-zone pass%31.430.526.9
4th-down go%opp. territory26.56.715.4
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: John Chavis → Kevin Steele · 2015
91st pct71st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Notre Dame 28–31 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2015: Beat Texas Tech 56–27 Advocare V100 Texas Bowl2016: Beat Louisville 29–9 CFP

80 NFL Draft picks: Marcus Spears (2005), Corey Webster (2005), Travis Daniels (2005), Joseph Addai (2006), Andrew Whitworth (2006), Claude Wroten (2006), Skyler Green (2006), Kyle Williams (2006) + 72 more

114–34
2001–2004
Oklahoma Statecaretaker
Regional Program I → National Program II
Les Miles moved Oklahoma State from Regional Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

9th-best Oklahoma State tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Bob Simmons (1995–2000) · succeeded by Mike Gundy (2005–2025).

7 NFL Draft picks: Kevin Williams (2003), Rashaun Woods (2004), Tatum Bell (2004), Antonio Smith (2004), Darrent Williams (2005), Vernand Morency (2005), Billy Bajema (2005)

28–21