The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Matt Wells

Followed Kliff Kingsbury. Matt Wells held Texas Tech at National Program II for 3 seasons.

The ascent
57–51
2013–2021 · 2 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUTAH STATETEXAS TECHNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUtah State, 2013: 9-5, Regional Program II2013Utah State, 2014: 10-4, Regional Program I2014Utah State, 2015: 6-7, Regional Program I2015Utah State, 2016: 3-9, Regional Program II2016Utah State, 2017: 6-7, Regional Program II2017Utah State, 2018: 10-2, Regional Program I2018+4.2Texas Tech, 2019: 4-8, National Program II2019Texas Tech, 2020: 4-6, National Program II2020Texas Tech, 2021: 5-3, National Program II2021-1.6One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 7th career season — faster than 9% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #597 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Utah State, 6 seasons
+4.2
Regional Program II → Regional Program I.
Texas Tech, 3 seasons
−1.6
National Program II → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Utah State2013–2018▲ 6.3ptTexas Tech2019–2021▼ 9.7pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Utah State6.3pt#205 of 258 · less than most
Texas Tech9.7pt#138 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–7 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Bryan Harsin.

Rivalry record
4–7
36.4% · 4 rivals
One-score games
7–20
25.9% · margin ≤8
Rivalry ledger
BYU2–340%
Baylor1–150%
Texas0–20%
The toughest matchup
vs. Bryan Harsin1–3
4 meetings, 2014–2017
’14 L’15 W · erased a 3-pt deficit’16 L’17 L
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
3–18 14.3%
National Program
5–11 31.2%
Regional Program
26–16 61.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.21
#80 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.34
#30 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2019–2021
Texas Techcaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Matt Wells held Texas Tech at National Program II for 3 seasons.

12th-best Texas Tech tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+1.3 pts
#107 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-27.7 pts
#194 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Kliff Kingsbury (2013–2018) · succeeded by Joey McGuire (2022–2026).

Season201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record4–84–65–3
PostseasonW bowl
Recruiting rank#61#49#64
Style — pass rate
Pass rate56.854.047.1
Coordinators
OCDavid YostDavid YostSonny Cumbie
DCKeith PattersonDerek Jones / Keith PattersonDerek Jones / Keith Patterson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense544066
Defense174115
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%58.954.040.4
Red-zone pass%39.635.337.1
4th-down go%opp. territory38.350.043.8
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
11
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
16
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-5
#112 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 217 lbs
across 7 of 11 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+11.9 lbs
#2 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: FL (2), CA (1), TX (1), NC (1), TN (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
31.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
43.6
position-weighted
Net
-12.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Malik Dunlap (CB) from NC State
Biggest loss: Alan Bowman (QB) to Michigan
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Keith Patterson → co-Derek Jones / Keith Patterson · 2020
17th pct41st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
223 lbs
6′4″ avg · #114 of 767 · more than most
Running back
224 lbs
5′11″ avg · #15 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
199 lbs
6′1″ avg · #148 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
248 lbs
6′6″ avg · #264 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
D-line
286 lbs
6′3″ avg · #336 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
236 lbs
6′2″ avg · #79 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
200 lbs
6′0″ avg · #22 of 771 · more than most
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Linebacker via the portal
67%
#23 of 225 stints
Buys ATH via the portal
20%
#24 of 146 stints
Grows Wide receiver from high school
83%
#220 of 243 stints
Postseason detail2021: Beat Mississippi State 34–7 AutoZone Liberty Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Dakota Allen (2019), Jordyn Brooks (2020), Broderick Washington Jr (2020), Zech McPhearson (2021), Jack Anderson (2021), Erik Ezukanma (2022), Dawson Deaton (2022)

13–17
2013–2018
Utah Statecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program I
Matt Wells moved Utah State from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

7th-best Utah State tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+11.7 pts
#58 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+37.8 pts
#3 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Season201320142015201620172018Trend
Record & result
Record9–510–46–73–96–710–2
PostseasonW bowlL bowlCFP lossW bowl
Recruiting rank#110#96#92#104#109
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.245.648.247.349.5
Coordinators
OCKevin McGivenJosh HeupelJovon Bouknight / Luke WellsDavid YostDavid Yost
DCTodd OrlandoKevin CluneFrank Maile / Kendrick ShaverFrank Maile / Kendrick ShaverFrank Maile / Keith Patterson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense5945392194
Defense8968618793
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%38.546.438.743.650.6
Red-zone pass%29.438.932.950.033.6
4th-down go%opp. territory9.829.222.727.718.2
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kevin McGiven → Josh Heupel · 2015
59th pct45th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 38.5% → 46.4% (+7.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 49% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Josh Heupel → co-Jovon Bouknight / co-Luke Wells · 2016
45th pct39th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.4% → 38.7% (-7.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Jovon Bouknight / co-Luke Wells → David Yost · 2017
39th pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 38.7% → 43.6% (+4.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Todd Orlando → Kevin Clune · 2015
89th pct68th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Kevin Clune → co-Frank Maile / co-Kendrick Shaver · 2016
68th pct61st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat UTEP 21–6 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2015: Lost to Akron 21–23 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2017: Lost to New Mexico State 20–26 CFP2018: Beat North Texas 52–13 New Mexico Bowl Presented By Progressive

8 NFL Draft picks: Will Davis (2013), Kerwynn Williams (2013), Maurice Alexander (2014), Nevin Lawson (2014), Nick Vigil (2016), Kyler Fackrell (2016), Devante Mays (2017), Darwin Thompson (2019)

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