Utah State: a football coaching history

Regional Program III#99 of 138–

See Utah State’s full 91-year Zeitgeist History →
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Program GOAT

Tony Knap

Peaked at Power Program III

Built by

John Ralston

Regional Program V → National Program II (+25.7)

The fall

E. Lowell Romney

National Program III → Regional Program III (−16.7)

Right now

Bronco Mendenhall

in year 2 — too new to place in Utah State's history

Every coach

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2025–now

Bronco Mendenhall Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

9-12

2024

Nate Dreiling Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

4-8

2021–2024

Blake Anderson Steady

Blake Anderson slid the Aggies from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−2.0 pts over 3 seasons · top 44% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dennis Erickson’s Arizona State run (2007–2011)

6th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Frank Maile (2020) · succeeded by Nate Dreiling (2024).

Season	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	11-3	6-7	6-7	0-0
Postseason	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#128	#80	#99	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.2	42.0	46.8	—
Coordinators
OC	Anthony Tucker	Anthony Tucker	Kyle Cefalo	—
DC	Ephraim Banda	Ephraim Banda	Joe Cauthen	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	60	9	51	—
Defense	76	32	12	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	43.7	36.2	49.0	—
Red-zone pass%	39.7	44.9	47.3	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	37.3	37.3	35.4	—

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+0.5 pts

#109 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-0.5 pts

#107 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-28

#135 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 220 lbs

across 16 of 27 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.4 lbs

#50 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TX (3), FL (2), OK (2), UT (2), CA (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

51.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

52.3

position-weighted

Net

-0.4

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Levi Williams (QB) from Wyoming

Biggest loss: Jason Shelley (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Anthony Tucker → Kyle Cefalo · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 36.2% → 49.0% (+12.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 47% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Ephraim Banda → Joe Cauthen · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

219 lbs

6′1″ avg · #190 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

205 lbs

5′9″ avg · #495 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

186 lbs

5′10″ avg · #668 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

231 lbs

6′4″ avg · #699 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

313 lbs

6′5″ avg · #215 of 779 · middle half

D-line

289 lbs

6′2″ avg · #264 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′2″ avg · #402 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

181 lbs

5′10″ avg · #744 of 771 · bottom quarter

Safety

188 lbs

6′0″ avg · #326 of 346 · bottom quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Wide receiver via the portal

70%

#23 of 243 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

80%

#176 of 224 stints

Grows Running back from high school

80%

#181 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2021: Beat Oregon State 24-13 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel2022: Lost to Memphis 10-38 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2023: Lost to Georgia State 22-45 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

−2.0

23-17

2018, 2020

Frank Maile Short tenure

2020 offense ranked in the 4th percentile nationally — historically bad

2-2

2009–2012, 2019–2020

Gary Andersen Steady

Gary Andersen moved the Aggies from Regional Program V to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

Swung 20.5 points of pass rate — #26 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+8.9 pts over 6 seasons · top 20% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Robinson’s UNLV run (1999–2004)

9th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Brent Guy (2005–2008) · succeeded by Matt Wells (2013–2018) · returned in 2019 · succeeded by Frank Maile (2020).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2009	2010	2011	2012	2019	2020
Record & result
Record	4-8	4-8	7-6	11-2	7-6	0-3
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#109	#105	#108	#111	#90	#117
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	43.1	38.0	31.8	47.0	52.2	46.8
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	Mike Sanford	Bodie Reeder
DC	—	—	—	—	Justin Ena	Stacy Collins / Frank Maile
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	72	38	84	72	37	4
Defense	0	24	59	95	30	16
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.0	33.0	28.6	47.9	46.9	31.9
Red-zone pass%	29.3	15.8	17.4	45.3	44.8	40.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	22.7	25.7	34.8	26.5	17.5	20.0

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-22.4 pts

#183 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-20.9 pts

#180 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Punter from high school

100%

#29 of 29 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2011: Lost to Ohio 23-24 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2012: Beat Toledo 41-15 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2019: Lost to Kent State 41-51 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Curtis Marsh (2011), Bobby Wagner (2012), Robert Turbin (2012), Michael Smith (2012), Will Davis (2013), Kerwynn Williams (2013), Jordan Love (2020)

+8.9

33-33

2013–2018

Matt Wells Steady

Matt Wells moved the Aggies from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+4.2 pts over 6 seasons · top 38% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Johnson’s Vanderbilt run (2002–2009)

7th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Gary Andersen (2009–2012) · succeeded by Gary Andersen (2019–2020).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Record & result
Record	9-5	10-4	6-7	3-9	6-7	10-2
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#109	#110	#96	#92	#104	#109
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.8	43.2	45.6	48.2	47.3	49.5
Coordinators
OC	—	Kevin McGiven	Josh Heupel	Jovon Bouknight / Luke Wells	David Yost	David Yost
DC	—	Todd Orlando	Kevin Clune	Frank Maile / Kendrick Shaver	Frank Maile / Kendrick Shaver	Frank Maile / Keith Patterson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	20	59	45	39	21	94
Defense	94	89	68	61	87	93
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.9	38.5	46.4	38.7	43.6	50.6
Red-zone pass%	41.9	29.4	38.9	32.9	50.0	33.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	7.9	9.8	29.2	22.7	27.7	18.2

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+11.7 pts

#59 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+37.5 pts

#3 of 208 · top quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Kevin McGiven → Josh Heupel · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 38.5% → 46.4% (+7.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 49% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Josh Heupel → Jovon Bouknight (co) / Luke Wells (co) · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 46.4% → 38.7% (-7.7 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Jovon Bouknight (co) / Luke Wells (co) → David Yost · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 38.7% → 43.6% (+4.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Todd Orlando → Kevin Clune · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Kevin Clune → Frank Maile (co) / Kendrick Shaver (co) · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2013: Beat Northern Illinois 21-14 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2014: Beat UTEP 21-6 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2015: Lost to Akron 21-23 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2017: Lost to New Mexico State 20-26 Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Maurice Alexander (2014), Nevin Lawson (2014), Nick Vigil (2016), Kyler Fackrell (2016), Devante Mays (2017), Darwin Thompson (2019)

+4.2

44-34

2005–2008

Brent Guy Steady

Brent Guy slid the Aggies from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−5.1 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 36% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Derek Mason’s Middle Tennessee run (2024–now)

17th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Mick Dennehy (2000–2004) · succeeded by Gary Andersen (2009–2012).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2005	2006	2007	2008
Record & result
Record	3-8	1-11	2-10	3-9
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#111	#116	#107	#111
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	41.2	40.8	36.6	43.9
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	26	7	29	40
Defense	54	26	13	30
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.7	26.9	30.6	37.9
Red-zone pass%	38.1	—	25.0	21.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	20.0	—	37.1	36.0

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Shawn Murphy (2008), Kevin Robinson (2008)

−5.1

9-38

2000–2004

Mick Dennehy Steady

Mick Dennehy slid Utah State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−2.8 pts over 5 seasons · top 48% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dan Enos’s Central Michigan run (2010–2014)

12th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Dave Arslanian (1998–1999) · succeeded by Brent Guy (2005–2008).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Record & result
Record	5-6	4-7	4-7	3-9	3-8
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	#66
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	50.6
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	22
Defense	—	—	—	—	31
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	63.0
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Kevin Curtis (2003), Chris Cooley (2004)

−2.8

19-37

1998–1999

Dave Arslanian Short tenure

7-15

1995–1997

John Smith Steady

John Smith moved the Aggies from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 3 seasons.

+4.7 pts over 3 seasons · top 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Skip Holtz’s East Carolina run (2005–2009)

11th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Charlie Weatherbie (1992–1994) · succeeded by Dave Arslanian (1998–1999).

Season	1995	1996	1997
Record & result
Record	4-7	6-5	6-6
Postseason	—	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1997: Lost to Cincinnati 19-35 Bowl

+4.7

16-18

1992–1994

Charlie Weatherbie Steady

Charlie Weatherbie moved Utah State from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

+0.9 pts over 3 seasons · top 30% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Derek Dooley’s Louisiana Tech run (2007–2009)

15th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Chuck Shelton (1986–1991) · succeeded by John Smith (1995–1997).

Season	1992	1993	1994
Record & result
Record	5-6	7-5	3-8
Postseason	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1993: Beat Ball State 42-33 Bowl

+0.9

15-19

1986–1991

Chuck Shelton Steady

Chuck Shelton slid Utah State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 6 seasons.

−5.9 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 16% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tommy West’s Memphis run (2001–2009)

13th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Chris Pella (1983–1985) · succeeded by Charlie Weatherbie (1992–1994).

4 NFL Draft picks: Mark Mraz (1987), Al Smith (1987), Brent Snyder (1989), Kendal Smith (1989)

−5.9

26-39-1

1983–1985

Chris Pella Steady

Chris Pella slid the Aggies from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

−7.1 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike DuBose’s Alabama run (1997–2000)

10th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Bruce Snyder (1976–1982) · succeeded by Chuck Shelton (1986–1991).

6 NFL Draft picks: Patrick Allen (1984), Aaron Smith (1984), Hal Garner (1985), Mike Hamby (1985), Solomon Miller (1986), Ed Berry (1986)

−7.1

9-24

1976–1982

Bruce Snyder Steady

Bruce Snyder slid Utah State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 7 seasons.

−3.2 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 31% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Joe Tiller’s Wyoming run (1991–1996)

5th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Phil Krueger (1973–1975) · succeeded by Chris Pella (1983–1985).

6 NFL Draft picks: Jim Hough (1978), Rulon Jones (1980), Eric Hipple (1980), Rick Parros (1980), Craig Bradshaw (1980), Mike Perko (1982)

−3.2

37-38-2

1973–1975

Phil Krueger Steady

Phil Krueger slid the Aggies from National Program II to National Program III in 3 seasons.

−5.5 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 34% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Don Treadwell’s Miami (OH) run (2011–2013)

4th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Chuck Mills (1967–1972) · succeeded by Bruce Snyder (1976–1982).

3 NFL Draft picks: Steve Maughan (1976), Scott Parrish (1976), Orlando Nelson (1976)

−5.5

21-12

1967–1972

Chuck Mills Steady

Chuck Mills slid the Aggies from Power Program III to National Program II in 6 seasons.

−8.8 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 8% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike London’s Virginia run (2010–2015)

2nd-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Tony Knap (1963–1966) · succeeded by Phil Krueger (1973–1975).

5 NFL Draft picks: MacArthur Lane (1968), Bill Staley (1968), Altie Taylor (1969), Mike O'Shea (1969), Phil Olsen (1970)

−8.8

38-23-1

1963–1966

Tony Knap Steady

Tony Knap moved the Aggies from National Program II to Power Program III in 4 seasons.

+8.8 pts over 4 seasons · top 6% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Matt Campbell’s Toledo run (2011–2015)

1st-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed John Ralston (1959–1962) · succeeded by Chuck Mills (1967–1972).

+8.8

25-14-1

1959–1962

John Ralston Builder

John Ralston raised the Aggies from Regional Program V to National Program II.

+25.7 pts over 4 seasons · top 1% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Curt Cignetti’s Indiana run (2024–now)

3rd-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Everett Faunce (1955–1958) · succeeded by Tony Knap (1963–1966).

+25.7

31-11-1

1955–1958

Everett Faunce Steady

Everett Faunce slid the Aggies from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 4 seasons.

−1.5 pts over 4 seasons · top 41% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Guy Morriss’s Baylor run (2003–2007)

14th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed John Roning (1951–1954) · succeeded by John Ralston (1959–1962).

−1.5

15-24-1

1951–1954

John Roning Steady

John Roning moved the Aggies from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

+2.4 pts over 4 seasons · top 23% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Brohm’s Louisville run (2023–now)

16th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed George Melinkovich (1949–1950) · succeeded by Everett Faunce (1955–1958).

+2.4

18-21-2

1949–1950

George Melinkovich Short tenure

5-16

1938–1942, 1944–1948

E. Lowell Romney Steady

E. Lowell Romney slid Utah State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 10 seasons.

−16.7 pts over 10 seasons · bottom 1% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: George James’s Cornell run (1947–1960)

8th-best Utah State tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Succeeded by George Melinkovich (1949–1950).

−16.7

40-43-4

Stature and coaches, 1936–2026

Every coach