Derek Mason

Head coach · Middle Tennessee
3rd season · since 2024 · Vanderbilt before

At school10-22since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatWarm16% · 26th of 132 jobsLast gameL 28-44vs Kennesaw State · Oct 28Nextvs Western KentuckySat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianVanderbiltMiddle TennesseeTennesseeTennesseeWestern KentuckyWestern KentuckyPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelVanderbilt when he took over: 27.7 (National Program III), its final 2013 readingtook overVanderbilt, 2014: 3-9, Regional Program IVanderbilt, 2014: 3-9, Regional Program I20143-9Vanderbilt, 2015: 4-8, Regional Program II20154-8Vanderbilt, 2016: 6-7, Regional Program II20166-7Vanderbilt, 2017: 5-7, Regional Program I20175-7Vanderbilt, 2018: 6-7, Regional Program I20186-7Vanderbilt, 2019: 3-9, Regional Program I20193-9Vanderbilt, 2020: 0-8, Regional Program IIVanderbilt, 2020: 0-8, Regional Program II20200-8-3.9Middle Tennessee when he took over: 16.1 (Regional Program III), its final 2023 readingtook overMiddle Tennessee, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program IVMiddle Tennessee, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program IV20243-9Middle Tennessee, 2025: 3-9, Regional Program IV20253-9Middle Tennessee, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program IVMiddle Tennessee, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program IV20264-4-5.0best: 2018gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-2

Vanderbilt2016Independence BowlL 17-412018Texas BowlL 38-45

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 28-44 vs. Kennesaw State Wed Oct 28
  • This season4-4
  • Hot seat16% 26th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Western Kentucky Sat Nov 7
  • Stature123rd of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 12%. Lose and he’s at 18%.

vs. Western Kentucky, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET ESPN+ · Western Kentucky is 3-5 · Mason vs. Tyson Helton: 0-2 · Middle Tennessee’s chance to win: 38% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Middle Tennessee wins: 12%, 32nd of 132Now: 16%If Middle Tennessee loses: 18%, 23rd of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Middle Tennessee wins: 12%, 32nd of 132
  • Now: 16%
  • If Middle Tennessee loses: 18%, 23rd of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

16% chance he’s out after the season · 26th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow10% had they won10% had they wonLoss 18%Win 12%28%20%18%16%17%25%21%14%16%Pre1W vs. Murray StateW2L at MarshallL3W vs. NevadaW4L at Jacksonville StateL5L at KansasL6W vs. DelawareW7W at Florida InternationalW8L vs. Kennesaw StateL9Chance to win vs. Western Kentucky38%10Chance to win at Liberty3%11Chance to win at Sam Houston55%12Chance to win vs. New Mexico State58%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow10% had they wonLoss 18%Win 12%28%16%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-824%
  2. 5-717%
  3. 6-611%
  4. 7-57%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 18%, 21st-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 20%, 26th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 22%, 22nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 24%, 14th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): 24%, 15th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 25%, 14th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 30%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 28%, 14th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 23%, 18th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 23%, 18th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 23%, 18th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 16%, 32nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 17%, 31st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 25%, 18th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 26%, 16th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 13%, 36th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 16%, 30th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 16%, 26th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2025, week 11▲ 1-8, outscored by 107

Hottest: 2025, week 11 (32%, 10th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-8, outscored by 107

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    6-18 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscored by 46

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$3,083,333 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.1× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 14%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 77th of 138 per play. Defense: 111th.

Offense, per play77thOffense, starting field position128thDefense, per play111thRun defense119thWorstBest
Offense, per play77th of 138Offense, starting field position128th of 138Defense, per play111th of 138Run defense119th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Middle Tennessee. The other two rows are where Middle Tennessee stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Western Kentucky (3-5)ESPN+38%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Liberty (7-1)CBS Sports Network3%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Sam Houston (1-7)55%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. New Mexico State (3-5)58%

Percent: Middle Tennessee’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Middle Tennessee stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

114th120th126thPreseason118thMurray State W 38-14Murray State W 38-14W 38-14Murray State118thMarshall L 26-28Marshall L 26-28L 26-28Marshall118thNevada W 27-20Nevada W 27-20W 27-20Nevada119thJacksonville State L 13-23Jacksonville State L 13-23L 13-23Jacksonville …119thKansas L 0-55Kansas L 0-55L 0-55Kansas119thDelaware W 33-30Delaware W 33-30W 33-30Delaware119thFlorida International W 26-23Florida International W 26-23W 26-23Florida Inter…121stKennesaw State L 28-44Kennesaw State L 28-44L 28-44Kennesaw State120th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 28-44 vs. Kennesaw State1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25W 26-23 at Florida International4 headlines · 65th of 138Gusty call pays off in fourth quarter for Derek Mason, MTSU football in win at FIU Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 33-30 vs. Delaware3 headlines · 64th of 138MTSU football coach Derek Mason on Conference USA win over Delaware The Daily News Journal
  4. Oct 5–11No game0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 0-55 at Kansas12 headlines · 39th of 138Derek Mason said his team looked "discombobulated" against Kansas On3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 13-23 at Jacksonville State1 headline · 83rd of 138Will Derek Mason, MTSU football start CUSA slate with a win? Our prediction The Daily News Journal

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Middle Tennessee’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.