Vanderbilt: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2021–now

Clark Lea Steady ◆ COY

Clark Lea moved the Commodores from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

2025 offense ranked in the 98th percentile nationally — elite

+2.6 pts over 6 seasons · top 50% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Al Groh’s Virginia run (2001–2009)

6th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Derek Mason (2014–2020).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	2-10	5-7	2-10	7-6	10-3	3-5
Postseason	—	—	—	W bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#49	#32	#52	#40	#76	#33
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	49.1	43.7	52.7	39.4	49.9	50.3
Coordinators
OC	David Raih	Joey Lynch	Joey Lynch	Tim Beck	Tim Beck	Tim Beck
DC	Jesse Minter	Nick Howell	Nick Howell	Steve Gregory	Steve Gregory	Steve Gregory
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	6	21	13	42	98	29
Defense	13	6	4	12	22	16
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	41.8	35.7	49.6	33.2	50.0	49.0
Red-zone pass%	38.2	39.0	46.9	33.9	36.3	39.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	44.7	44.4	45.7	25.0	29.4	47.8

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-16.4 pts

#167 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-40.5 pts

#204 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

119

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-45

#99 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 245 lbs

across 60 of 74 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+5.5 lbs

#87 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#32 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TX (10), GA (6), TN (5), CA (3), LA (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

58.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

59.7

position-weighted

Net

-0.8

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Nate Johnson (QB) from Utah

Biggest loss: AJ Swann (QB) to LSU

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: David Raih → Joey Lynch · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 41.8% → 35.7% (-6.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Joey Lynch → Tim Beck · 2024The offense leveled up

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 42.7% → 41.6% (-1.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 16% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Jesse Minter → Nick Howell · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Nick Howell → Steve Gregory (co) · 2024The system held

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

212 lbs

6′2″ avg · #385 of 767 · middle half

Running back

201 lbs

5′10″ avg · #606 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

196 lbs

6′0″ avg · #238 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

241 lbs

6′5″ avg · #545 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

313 lbs

6′5″ avg · #223 of 779 · middle half

D-line

285 lbs

6′4″ avg · #363 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′2″ avg · #391 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

191 lbs

6′1″ avg · #358 of 771 · middle half

Safety

200 lbs

6′1″ avg · #100 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Punter via the portal

100%

#1 of 29 stints

Grows Running back from high school

73%

#161 of 208 stints

Grows Linebacker from high school

80%

#170 of 225 stints

Postseason detail2024: Beat Georgia Tech 35-27 Birmingham Bowl2025: Lost to Iowa 27-34 ReliaQuest Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Julian Ashby (2025), Eli Stowers (2026)

Coach of the Year: SEC Coach of the Year (2024), SEC Coach of the Year (2025)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Eli Stowers (2025), Diego Pavia (2025)

AI Narratives — “Vanderbilt's roster reshaping continues” and 2 more on the team page.

+2.6

29-41

2020

Todd Fitch Short tenure

2020 defense ranked in the 1th percentile nationally — historically bad

0-1

2014–2020

Derek Mason Steady

Derek Mason slid Vanderbilt from National Program III to Regional Program I in 7 seasons.

2014 offense ranked in the 1th percentile nationally — historically bad

−4.9 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 22% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rip Scherer’s Memphis run (1995–2000)

7th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed James Franklin (2011–2013) · succeeded by Clark Lea (2021–now).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Record & result
Record	3-9	4-8	6-7	5-7	6-7	3-9	0-8
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#46	#49	#54	#65	#41	#56	#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	48.2	43.2	44.2	53.7	48.9	51.2	47.6
Coordinators
OC	Karl Dorrell	Andy Ludwig	Andy Ludwig	Andy Ludwig	Andy Ludwig	Gerry Gdowski	Todd Fitch
DC	Dave Kotulski	Derek Mason	Derek Mason	—	Jason Tarver	Jason Tarver	Ted Roof
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	1	8	39	53	89	7	9
Defense	28	96	74	30	11	34	1
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	31.7	40.4	39.7	50.6	45.8	45.7	41.9
Red-zone pass%	30.6	35.4	40.2	47.8	37.9	37.8	40.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	24.0	23.5	25.0	33.3	34.1	16.7	29.6

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-19.9 pts

#179 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-12.7 pts

#160 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Karl Dorrell → Andy Ludwig · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 31.7% → 40.4% (+8.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 101% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Andy Ludwig → Gerry Gdowski · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.8% → 45.7% (-0.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 59% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Dave Kotulski → Derek Mason · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2016: Lost to NC State 17-41 Camping World Independence Bowl2018: Lost to Baylor 38-45 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Stephen Weatherly (2016), Zach Cunningham (2017), Will Holden (2017), Oren Burks (2018), Joejuan Williams (2019), Justin Skule (2019), Ke'Shawn Vaughn (2020), Dayo Odeyingbo (2021)

−4.9

27-55

2011–2013

James Franklin Steady≈

James Franklin moved the Commodores from Regional Program III to National Program III in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+10.0 pts over 3 seasons · top 5% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Todd Graham’s Tulsa run (2007–2010)

5th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Robbie Caldwell (2010) · succeeded by Derek Mason (2014–2020).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2011	2012	2013
Record & result
Record	6-7	9-4	9-4
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#49	#46	#26
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	41.0	40.0	42.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	25	13	28
Defense	86	74	86
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	41.1	41.5	46.2
Red-zone pass%	35.1	32.3	22.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	31.2	37.7	48.4

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2011: Lost to Cincinnati 24-31 AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL2012: Beat NC State 38-24 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2013: Beat Houston 41-24 Bbva Compass Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Casey Hayward (2012), Tim Fugger (2012), Zachary Stacy (2013), Ryan Seymour (2013), Jordan Matthews (2014), Wesley Johnson (2014), Dre Hal (2014)

+10.0

24-15

2010

Robbie Caldwell Short tenure

2010 offense ranked in the 0th percentile nationally — historically bad

2-10

2002–2009

Bobby Johnson Steady

Bobby Johnson moved Vanderbilt from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 8 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+4.1 pts over 8 seasons · top 39% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Locksley’s Maryland run (2019–now)

11th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Woody Widenhofer (1997–2001) · succeeded by Robbie Caldwell (2010).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Record & result
Record	2-10	2-10	2-9	5-6	4-8	5-7	7-6	2-10
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	#70	#89	#54	#75	#76	#60
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	39.0	56.4	46.7	42.5	40.4	43.8
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	60	52	48	8	6	9
Defense	—	—	6	70	52	59	65	45
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	39.6	60.2	51.4	39.1	41.0	39.5
Red-zone pass%	—	—	35.7	44.8	36.8	36.7	36.6	44.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	38.1	19.2	28.0	29.3	7.9	18.4

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2008: Beat Boston College 16-14 Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Hunter Hillenmeyer (2003), Jovan Haye (2005), Justin Geisinger (2005), Jay Cutler (2006), Chris Williams (2008), Earl Bennett (2008), Jonathan Goff (2008), D.J. Moore (2009) + 2 more

+4.1

29-66

1997–2001

Woody Widenhofer Steady

Woody Widenhofer moved the Commodores from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

+3.8 pts over 5 seasons · top 17% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tim Albin’s Ohio run (2021–2024)

13th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Ron Dowhower (1995–1996) · succeeded by Bobby Johnson (2002–2009).

8 NFL Draft picks: Corey Chavous (1998), Jamie Duncan (1998), Antony Jordan (1998), Fred Vinson (1999), Jamie Winborn (2001), Matt Stewart (2001), John Markham (2001), Jimmy Williams (2001)

+3.8

15-40

1995–1996

Ron Dowhower Short tenure

4-18

1991–1994

Gerry DiNardo Steady

Gerry DiNardo held the Commodores at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

−0.2 pts over 4 seasons · top 35% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Ross’s Army run (2004–2006)

15th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Watson Brown (1986–1990) · succeeded by Ron Dowhower (1995–1996).

1 NFL Draft pick: Corey Harris (1992)

−0.2

18-26

1986–1990

Watson Brown Steady

Watson Brown slid Vanderbilt from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

−3.0 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 49% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Chryst’s Pittsburgh run (2012–2014)

14th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed George MacIntyre (1979–1985) · succeeded by Gerry DiNardo (1991–1994).

1 NFL Draft pick: DeMond Winston (1990)

−3.0

10-45

1979–1985

George MacIntyre Steady

George MacIntyre moved the Commodores from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 7 seasons.

+3.5 pts over 7 seasons · top 44% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Lee Owens’s Akron run (1995–2003)

12th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Fred Pancoast (1975–1978) · succeeded by Watson Brown (1986–1990).

Season	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985
Record & result
Record	1-10	2-9	4-7	8-4	2-9	5-6	3-7-1
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1982: Lost to Air Force 28-36 Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Preston Brown (1980), Ken Hammond (1982), Jim Arnold (1983), Leonard Coleman (1984), Chuck Scott (1985), Will Wolford (1986)

+3.5

25-52-1

1975–1978

Fred Pancoast Steady

Fred Pancoast slid the Commodores from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

−8.6 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Duffner’s Maryland run (1992–1996)

8th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Sloan (1973–1974) · succeeded by George MacIntyre (1979–1985).

3 NFL Draft picks: Jay Chesley (1976), Barry Burton (1976), Dennis Harrison (1978)

−8.6

13-31

1973–1974

Steve Sloan Short tenure

12-9-2

1967–1972

Bill Pace Steady

Bill Pace moved the Commodores from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 6 seasons.

+6.8 pts over 6 seasons · top 28% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Darrell Dickey’s North Texas run (1998–2006)

9th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Jack Green (1963–1966) · succeeded by Steve Sloan (1973–1974).

6 NFL Draft picks: Gary Davis (1968), Bob Goodridge (1968), Chip Healy (1969), Bob Asher (1970), Pat Toomay (1970), Rod Freeman (1973)

+6.8

22-38-3

1963–1966

Jack Green Steady

Jack Green slid the Commodores from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 4 seasons.

−7.3 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Carl Franks’s Duke run (1999–2003)

10th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Arthur Guepe (1953–1962) · succeeded by Bill Pace (1967–1972).

−7.3

7-29-4

1953–1962

Arthur Guepe Steady

Arthur Guepe moved the Commodores from National Program II to National Program I in 10 seasons.

−8.4 pts over 10 seasons · bottom 6% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rick Stockstill’s Middle Tennessee run (2006–2023)

4th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Edwards (1949–1952) · succeeded by Jack Green (1963–1966).

−8.4

39-54-7

1949–1952

Bill Edwards Steady

Bill Edwards moved the Commodores from National Program II to National Program I in 4 seasons.

+0.7 pts over 4 seasons · top 31% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Lou Tepper’s Illinois run (1992–1996)

3rd-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Red Sanders (1946–1948) · succeeded by Arthur Guepe (1953–1962).

+0.7

21-19-2

1940–1942, 1946–1948

Red Sanders Steady

Red Sanders slid Vanderbilt from National Program I to National Program II in 6 seasons.

+4.4 pts over 6 seasons · top 36% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Kruczek’s UCF run (1998–2003)

2nd-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Ray Morrison (1936–1939) · succeeded by Doby Bartling (1945) · returned in 1946 · succeeded by Bill Edwards (1949–1952).

+4.4

36-22-2

1945

Doby Bartling Short tenure

3-6

1936–1939

Ray Morrison Steady

Ray Morrison held Vanderbilt at Power Program III for 4 seasons.

1st-best Vanderbilt tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Red Sanders (1940–1942).

Power Program III

18-17-2