The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Clark Lea

Followed Derek Mason. Clark Lea moved Vanderbilt from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

26–36
2021–now · 1 stint
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In his own words

I want to see Blaze have opportunities to go out and make plays
We have to call [Blaze] into those throws
Vanderbilthustler3 days after the 28–9 opener
I think, in general, we need to get explosive offensively
Vanderbilthustler3 days after the 28–9 opener
[We are] continuing to develop both guys and give them opportunities, and [we’re] really learning from our first time doing this
Vanderbilthustler3 days after the 28–9 opener
I’m working towards some clarity in my own mind
Vanderbilthustler3 days after the 28–9 opener
[Curtis] wants to play
Vanderbilthustler3 days after the 28–9 opener
This is just about the Austin Peay game
Saturday Down South9 days before the opener
I see growth in Jared [Curtis] and Blaze [Berlowitz] continues to do things that he does well
Vanderbilthustler
We won’t replicate Diego
Saturday Down South
Now it’s their turn
Saturday Down South
The mission’s winning, so this is about how we best position our program to win… we have to evaluate all possibilities and put the best person on the field that’s going to help us win
Saturday Down South
I am grateful the DI Cabinet approved the FBS Oversight Committee’s recommendation to impose significant penalties on head coaches and programs who circumvent transfer rules, along with immediate accountability
Saturday Down South

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerVANDERBILTNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelVanderbilt, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program II2021Vanderbilt, 2022: 5-7, Regional Program III2022Vanderbilt, 2023: 2-10, Regional Program III2023Vanderbilt, 2024: 7-6, Regional Program III2024Vanderbilt, 2025: 10-3, Regional Program I2025Vanderbilt, 2026: in progress, Regional Program I2026+2.6One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Vanderbilt, 6 seasons (active)
+2.6
Regional Program II → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Vanderbilt2021–2026▼ 6.7pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Vanderbilt13.3pt#71 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–8 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Kirby Smart.

Rivalry record
2–8
20.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
9–8
52.9% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Missouri1–420%
Tennessee1–420%
The toughest matchup
vs. Kirby Smart0–3
3 meetings, 2021–2023
’21 L’22 L’23 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–2 0.0%
Blue Blood
1–4 20.0%
Power Program
5–17 22.7%
National Program
5–9 35.7%
Regional Program
7–1 87.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.22
#244 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.65
#325 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

coaching decisionLimited signal that season

fans think the play-calling hurt the quarterback's performance

The fanbase pretty universally was confused by/hated the decision. In Lea's first few seasons with the program he played two QBs a couple of times and it never went well. This feels like an inability to make a decision on his part.

Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Sep 6, 2026–Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB

Show all 3
coaching decisionEarly signal — few voices

fans think Clark Lea's impact on team performance is negative

Im sorry but i cant help but doubt clark lea’s coaching ability a bit with how poorly he’s handling the qb room

Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB

position battleLimited signal that season

fans believe the QB battle is hurting the team

All of these points have been scored by our QB2's drives, our QB1 has been the problem. We've had a QB battle going on in the middle of a game...

QB battle is a great problem for Vanderbilt to have - The future is bright on west end ✌️ Anchor ⚓ Down 💪

Based on 3 comments from 2 posters across 3 threads · Aug 21, 2026–Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB, Locked On Vandy

Coaching career

2021–now
Vanderbiltcaretaker🏆 coach of the year ×2
Regional Program II → Regional Program I
Clark Lea moved Vanderbilt from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

7th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-16.5 pts
#165 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-41.1 pts
#207 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Derek Mason (2014–2020).

Season202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record2–105–72–107–610–30–0
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#49#32#52#40#76#33
Style — pass rate
Pass rate49.143.752.739.449.942.4
Coordinators
OCDavid RaihJoey LynchJoey LynchTim BeckTim BeckTim Beck
DCJesse MinterNick HowellNick HowellSteve GregorySteve GregorySteve Gregory
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense52113429838
Defense1164122245
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.835.749.633.250.039.2
Red-zone pass%38.239.046.933.936.333.3
4th-down go%opp. territory44.744.445.725.029.4
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
74
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
119
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-45
#99 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 245 lbs
across 60 of 74 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.3 lbs
#84 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#14 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (10), GA (6), TN (5), CA (3), LA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.7
position-weighted
Net
-0.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Nate Johnson (QB) from Utah
Biggest loss: AJ Swann (QB) to LSU
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: David Raih → Joey Lynch · 2022
5th pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.8% → 35.7% (-6.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Joey Lynch → Tim Beck · 2024the offense leveled up
17th pct70th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 42.7% → 41.6% (-1.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 16% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Jesse Minter → Nick Howell · 2022
11th pct6th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Nick Howell → co-Steve Gregory · 2024the system held
5th pct17th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
212 lbs
6′2″ avg · #385 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
201 lbs
5′10″ avg · #606 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #238 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
241 lbs
6′5″ avg · #545 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
313 lbs
6′5″ avg · #223 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
285 lbs
6′4″ avg · #363 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
228 lbs
6′2″ avg · #391 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
191 lbs
6′1″ avg · #358 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #100 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys P via the portal
100%
#1 of 29 stints
Grows Running back from high school
73%
#161 of 208 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
80%
#170 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2024: Beat Georgia Tech 35–27 Birmingham Bowl2025: Lost to Iowa 27–34 ReliaQuest Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Dayo Odeyingbo (2021), Julian Ashby (2025), Eli Stowers (2026)

Coach of the Year: SEC Coach of the Year (2024), SEC Coach of the Year (2025)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Eli Stowers (2025), Diego Pavia (2025)

26–36