Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
Vanderbilt (3‑5) travels to Mississippi State (4‑4), with Mississippi State favored by 3. Mississippi State’s offense is at the 58th percentile on success rate; Vanderbilt’s defense is at the 14th.
How they got here
Last three games
Vanderbilt · 3-5
Rated 45th in our preseason ratings, 81st now, down 36 spots.
Three straight losses.
W 35-31 vs NC State No. 37 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games
Mississippi State · 4-4
Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 92nd now, up 40 spots.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Mississippi State’s success rate against Vanderbilt, 44 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Mississippi State’s success rate against Vanderbilt’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 58th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 14th
Vanderbilt’s passing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
Vanderbilt offense, 47th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 14th
Mississippi State’s explosive plays against Vanderbilt’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 38th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 73rd
What’s at stake
Vanderbilt
- Vanderbilt needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 18% to get there with a win here, 2% with a loss.
- Vanderbilt is still shaking off a 17-point loss.
Mississippi State
- Mississippi State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 99% to get there with a win here, 59% with a loss.
- Mississippi State is still shaking off a 28-point loss.
The series
Mississippi State leads the series 15-7-2
24 meetings since 1904 · Mississippi State has won the last 5
- 2021Mississippi State 45-6
- 2020Mississippi State 24-17
- 2014Mississippi State 51-0
- 2009Mississippi State 15-3
- 2008Mississippi State 17-14
Each line is Mississippi State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Vanderbilt
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery preseason poll buries Vanderbilt by reflex, and the fanbase has heard 'the scheme called it a scheduling accident' so often it became the program's dry punchline. They say 2025 wasn't luck — it was the year the math finally listened.
What this game touches
The thirty-nine-year wait between bowls. Before James Franklin's 2011-2013 window, Vanderbilt had not been to a bowl since the Reagan administration — the long stretch of seasons that taught the fanbase to brace for the floor, and made 2025's 10 wins feel less like a result than a vindication.
Mississippi State
The chip · vs big brotherFans are tired of being treated as the lesser team in their own state — a different school with a different identity, an engineering university with the loudest crowd in the league, told every November that the Egg Bowl is the rivalry that defines them.
What this game touches
The Lebby holding pattern. Jeff Lebby went 2-10 in 2024, then 5-8 in 2025 — his first SEC win didn't come until November 1 against Arkansas, and the year ended with a Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Wake Forest. A loyal base is being asked, again, to wait for the floor to lift.
Best players
Vanderbilt
- C.J. Heard (S) · 62 tackles
- Junior Sherrill (WR) · 706 receiving yards
- Nicholas Rinaldi (LB) · 52 tackles
Mississippi State
- Anthony Evans III (WR) · 666 receiving yards
- Tyler Lockhart (LB) · 48 tackles
- Jardin Gilbert (S) · 42 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Jared Curtis (QB) — Vanderbilt’s leading passer (1,489 passing yards) takes on Mississippi State’s pass defense (14th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Vanderbilt fans are in a better mood than Mississippi State fans (72nd percentile vs 36th among FBS fanbases), even with Mississippi State favored.
Mississippi State favored by 3 · Total 48.5
Mississippi State by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Mississippi State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Davis Wade Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, noon Saturdays 85
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 4:15 pm ET · Davis Wade Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Davis Wade Stadium: noon Saturdays score 85, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 85, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Mississippi State is worth +3.7 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 41st percentile.
50% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (26-26 home, 14-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.7 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 217 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Mississippi State
- Wk 4Wvs Missouri31-24
- Wk 5Lvs Alabama23-56
- Wk 7Lat LSU0-31
- Wk 8Lvs Oklahoma15-23
- Wk 9Lat Texas3-31
Vanderbilt
- Wk 4Lat Auburn15-21
- Wk 5Lat Georgia14-38
- Wk 6Lvs Ole Miss17-52
- Wk 7Lvs Arkansas21-31
- Wk 8Lat Kentucky17-34
Power rating by week
Vanderbilt is rated 1.3 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Mississippi State12th2-4
- Vanderbilt16th0-5